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Democrats' victories successful a brace of peculiar elections successful Texas are raising the party's hopes for November, with 1 contention cutting into Speaker Mike Johnson's already razor-thin bulk successful the House and the different sending shockwaves done the Republican Party nationwide.
In a congressional runoff on Saturday, Christian Menefee defeated different Democrat to capable a vacant spot successful a deep-blue territory successful the Houston area. This narrows House Republicans' bulk successful the enclosure to 218-214. And it means that if conditions enactment the same, Johnson tin present lone spend to suffer a azygous Republican connected party-line votes.
But the weekend's bigger upset came successful a lower-profile state Senate race successful Fort Worth's Tarrant County, wherever Democrat Taylor Rehmet defeated Republican Leigh Wambsganss by a 57%-43% margin. It's a large flip for Democrats, gaining a spot that hadn't been won by the enactment successful implicit 40 years — successful an country that went for President Trump successful 2024 by 17 points.
Mr. Trump had endorsed Wambsganss successful a societal media station connected the eve of the election.
In an interrogation with CBS News' "The Takeout" connected Monday, Rehmet said his run made inroads by "going and showing up, knocking doors, making telephone calls and truly listening."
Rehmet, a national leader, advised different longshot Democrats to "focus connected their territory and absorption connected the issues that moving radical face."
It was a low-turnout race, but GOP Texas Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick, who had sounded the alarm up of clip that helium was disquieted astir Democrats' enthusiasm earlier the race, inactive referred to the upset arsenic a "wake-up call."
"Our voters cannot instrumentality thing for granted," Patrick wrote successful a social media post. "I cognize the vigor and spot the Republican grassroots successful Texas possess. We volition travel retired warring with a caller resolve, and we volition instrumentality this spot backmost successful November. We volition support Texas red."
Political idiosyncratic Mark Jones, of Rice University successful Houston, says the crushed this contention is making Republicans tense is that it whitethorn beryllium a motion that they're losing the enactment of moderates.
"Texas Republicans person historically relied connected the world that erstwhile propulsion comes to shove, mean Republicans successful November enactment with the GOP alternatively of going with the Democratic alternative," Jones said. "And I deliberation the hazard you tally is if the Trump medication and Republicans nationally spell excessively far, the region betwixt them and mean Republicans becomes greater than the region betwixt mean Republicans and Democratic candidates."
Rehmet and Wambsganss volition look each different again successful November, and since the authorities legislature is not scheduled to beryllium successful league until 2027, it's improbable Rehmet volition ever enactment successful immoderate votes successful Austin, making the triumph mostly symbolic.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis besides sounded the alarm. While noting that peculiar elections tin often nutrient unexpected results, helium said the plaything successful the Texas authorities Senate territory is "not thing that tin beryllium dismissed. Republicans should beryllium clear-eyed astir the governmental situation heading into the midterms."
Mr. Trump told reporters Sunday that "you don't cognize whether oregon not" the results are "transferrable." Mr. Trump had posted doubly earlier Election Day to get retired the ballot for Wambsganss.
Texas Democratic strategist Chuck Rocha pointed retired that Republicans look to beryllium losing enactment from a constituency they've had immoderate occurrence with successful the past 2 elections.
"What should perfectly terrify Texas Republicans is that Latino voters moved dramatically backmost to Democrats successful this election," said Rocha, who is moving connected House and Senate races successful the Lone Star State and nationally. "Texas Republicans made Latinos a centerpiece of their mid-cycle gerrymandering strategy, and present it's going to wound them successful the ass."
Republicans relying connected boost from redistricting
Mr. Trump, successful an effort to assistance the GOP clasp the House, past twelvemonth kicked disconnected a mid-decade propulsion to redraw Texas' legislature districts — particularly successful South Texas — and nett up to 5 seats for Republicans.
The redistricting run could marque Menefee's semipermanent aboriginal successful Congress uncertain due to the fact that the caller maps enactment him successful the aforesaid territory arsenic longtime Houston Rep. Al Green, a chap Democrat.
But Saturday's results successful the Tarrant County authorities Senate contention indicated the redistricting propulsion could marque Johnson's House bulk much precarious. Redistricting comes with tradeoffs: In bid to crook 5 Democratic districts into GOP-leaning districts, mapmakers needed to marque immoderate solid-red districts somewhat much Democratic, creating immoderate risks for the party, said Joshua Blank of the Texas Politics Project.
"There's been nary denotation astatine the clip of oregon since the redistricting effort present successful Texas that those efforts were based disconnected immoderate overwhelmingly blase investigation of the electorate," Blank said. "They look to person been based disconnected 1 year, 1 predetermination and that whitethorn person been a mistake — and I deliberation that question that Republicans are asking themselves this morning."
Democrats instrumentality vantage of debased turnout
Republicans person been speedy to enactment that peculiar elections often bring retired debased turnout, and this 1 successful peculiar occurred connected a Saturday successful January during a historical acold beforehand successful a authorities with typically mean winters.
Jones noted that determination were signs of occupation for Republicans up of Saturday, since Rehmet had already won the astir votes successful the November peculiar election, but the Tarrant County Republicans didn't commencement sounding the alarm until overmuch later.
Even though Mr. Trump posted doubly astir the contention past week, the GOP "didn't bash the enactment they needed to mobilize the Republicans to crook retired the ballot the mode they needed to," Jones said.
While Mr. Trump volition not beryllium connected the summons successful November, determination volition beryllium a blockbuster U.S. Senate contention for Sen. John Cornyn's spot that's apt to crook retired acold much Republicans than past weekend's peculiar election. Texas isn't connected the database of Senate seats Democrats are focusing connected successful November, but nonetheless, the Senate contention is inactive apt to pull grounds fundraising money and nationalist attention.
"At the extremity of the day, determination are much Republican voters successful this territory than determination are Democratic voters," Jones said. "It's conscionable that Democratic voters were much mobilized, and immoderate of those mean Republicans defected and voted for the Democratic candidate."
But immoderate Texas authorities watchers spot imaginable informing signs for Republicans.
Jorge Martinez, strategical manager of Libre, a nationalist grassroots enactment that mobilizes Latinos, says that determination are Republicans who mostly enactment Mr. Trump, others don't similar everything he's doing.
"When I look astatine autarkic voters and immoderate Republicans that I've talked to, they're acrophobic with immoderate of the ICE raids present locally arsenic determination person been operations astatine lodging operation sites," Martinez said.
Martinez has been starring the organization's efforts to sound connected doors crossed Texas successful efforts to place the astir pressing issues for voters up of rolling retired endorsements successful legislature races. The system continues to beryllium the astir important priority, Martinez says, with voters acknowledging little state prices, but migration is connected people's minds.
"People mightiness beryllium upset with what's happening astir the country, but ICE is enforcing the laws successful the books and if they don't similar it, they person to enactment with a subordinate of Congress to alteration that."
Rehmet told CBS News that the astir potent issues successful Saturday's contention were acquisition and the outgo of living.
Although Tarrant County is simply a Republican district, it has go a mean GOP district, Jones said, contempt its beardown enactment for Mr. Trump successful 2024. Wambsganss, an enforcement for the Patriot Mobile telephone company, was the much blimpish Republican moving successful November's superior election.
Texas' upcoming races
Early voting kicks disconnected connected Feb. 17 for the March 3 primary. While Democrats are highly improbable to marque important gains successful the GOP-controlled Texas Legislature, Democrats person zeroed successful connected the U.S. Senate race, which immoderate spot arsenic winnable if Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton wins the GOP primary. Democrats person 2 candidates competing successful the March superior for the Senate race: U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett and authorities Rep. James Talarico. Democrats person not won a statewide contention successful Texas since 1994.
Paxton, who has faced a fig of idiosyncratic and nonrecreational scandals since taking bureau arsenic the state's apical law-enforcement officer, is challenging GOP Sen. John Cornyn, who has served successful the Senate since 2003. Rep. Wesley Hunt is besides running.
Paxton is simply a adjacent state of Mr. Trump's, and was 1 of the archetypal Republicans to endorse his 2024 predetermination bid. But Mr. Trump has truthful acold refused to marque an endorsement successful the race, though helium appeared to beryllium waffling connected that connected Sunday, saying helium is "giving a precise superior thought" to an endorsement.
If Mr. Trump endorses Cornyn, who was the longtime GOP bulk whip successful the Senate and is mostly seen arsenic much electable, Jones, the governmental scientist, said Paxton would beryllium the "major loser" successful Sunday's results.
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