Bryan Norcross: Hurricane Erin is on track to stay offshore but US East Coast faces impacts

Updated astatine 9:30 a.m. ET connected Sunday, Aug. 17, 2025

The atmospheric conditions came unneurotic successful a stunning mode yesterday to enactment Hurricane Erin, abruptly blowing up into a Category 5. It was 1 of the fastest intensifications ever observed, and the second-lowest unit ever recorded successful an August hurricane aft Hurricane Allen successful 1980.

The tempest is tracking westbound astir 150 miles offshore of Puerto Rico. Erin volition crook northbound earlier reaching the Bahamas and divided the spread betwixt North Carolina and Bermuda earlier heading retired to sea. We are highly fortunate that the upwind signifier has travel unneurotic to make a way for this tempest that avoids nonstop interaction connected land.

Satellite imagery of Hurricane Erin. 

(NOAA)

Erin's apical winds person weakened, truthful the tempest is present a Category 3. It's going done a earthy process that develops a caller larger eyewall operation and expands the size of the storm. Bands of squalls rotating into Erin's halfway volition proceed to origin aggravated tropical downpours crossed the islands arsenic the hurricane moves by to the north.

The almighty hurricane volition enactment a tremendous magnitude of vigor into the ocean, which volition beryllium felt on each coastlines from the Caribbean to Canada, including the Bahamas and the U.S. East Coast.

Erin's strength is apt to fluctuate arsenic much eyewall replacement cycles and different outer influences impact the storm. It is forecast to intensify again arsenic it's turning northbound good eastbound of the Bahamas. The hurricane volition besides turn successful size. As the circulation diameter gets larger, the highest winds usually diminish due to the fact that the vigor successful the strategy is dispersed retired implicit a larger area.

The larger diameter storm, however, volition determination much h2o and marque stronger currents that interaction the coast. 

Beach conditions volition beryllium affected successful Florida and on the Southeast seashore connected Tuesday, with highest impacts moving northbound done the mid-Atlantic to New England connected Wednesday and Thursday. By Friday, the tempest should beryllium moving retired to sea, and the play on the beaches looks fine.

This representation is simply a machine prediction of the tallness of the waves offshore, but it’s a bully denotation of however the vigor from Erin volition dispersed out. Noticed the highest vigor Thursday greeting is focused betwixt Cape Hatteras and confederate New England.

Wave tallness forecast for the U.S. East Coast.

(FOX Weather)

Anybody readying connected going to the formation oregon boating this week should wage adjacent attraction to instructions from harbormasters and lifeguards. The currents volition beryllium unusually beardown until Erin moves good retired to sea.

Most of Erin's effects successful Florida volition beryllium from Palm Beach County northbound to the Georgia border. The Bahamas enactment arsenic a block, which diminishes the vigor from a tempest successful South Florida. But it volition inactive beryllium noticeable on the beaches, truthful beware of the anticipation of rip currents.

Remember the regularisation if you're caught successful a existent that's pulling you out: aquatics parallel to the beach, and soon you'll beryllium capable to aquatics ashore.

Eastern North Carolina, the Virginia Tidewater and the Delmarva Peninsula are the astir apt locations successful the U.S. to consciousness fringe effects from Erin’s winds astir Wednesday. Nothing terrible is expected, but you’ll apt cognize that a beardown tempest is offshore.

Offshore of North Carolina

The National Hurricane Center is inactive coating a low-probability citrus offshore of Cape Hatteras. A non-tropical low-pressure strategy has a flimsy accidental of taking connected immoderate tropical characteristics contiguous oregon time earlier it's swept retired to sea.

It could concisely go a depression, and there's a precise flimsy accidental it volition get a name. In immoderate case, it volition not impact land.

A caller country to watch. 

(NOAA)

The adjacent African strategy to watch

Some machine forecast models proceed to amusement a disturbance presently successful the eastbound Atlantic processing capable by the extremity of the week to beryllium a disruptive strategy astatine immoderate constituent successful the future. The National Hurricane Center is coating a ample imaginable improvement country for aboriginal successful the week erstwhile the disturbance is expected to beryllium approaching the Caribbean islands.

There is nary statement successful the assorted machine forecasts astir what volition hap opening adjacent weekend. A fig of the predictions instrumentality the strategy northbound pursuing Erin. Some instrumentality it westbound into the islands. We'll request the disturbance to make a spot earlier the machine models tin marque much accordant forecasts.

We don't discount these kinds of forecasts automatically this clip of twelvemonth due to the fact that it's precisely the benignant of strategy that tin origin problems. It volition carnivore watching implicit the adjacent fewer days.