Bryan Norcross: Erin forecast to reach Category 4 — still on track to miss the east coast

Updated 9:45 a.m. ET connected Aug. 15, 2025

Tropical Storm Erin is apt to go Hurricane Erin shortly. It's present tracking implicit water h2o that's successful the debased 80s, and the adust and dusty aerial that has had a stranglehold connected the circulation is dissipating. Steady intensification is forecast into aboriginal adjacent week.

Erin's way has held steady. It's dilatory lifting northbound present truthful it volition walk done the waters conscionable northbound of Puerto Rico and the northeastern Caribbean islands. Next week, each anticipation is that the halfway of the hurricane volition walk betwixt the Carolinas and Bermuda and past arc retired to sea. That's not 100%, but it's close.

FOX WEATHER HURRICANE SPECIALIST BRYAN NORCROSS BREAKS DOWN ERIN’S TRACK, VIEWER QUESTIONS

This graphic shows outer imagery of Erin.

(CIRA / FOX Weather)

As the tempest moves by the islands contiguous and done the weekend, winds connected the southbound broadside of the circulation could scope tropical tempest spot - 40 mph oregon stronger. Tropical tempest watches are successful effect for the northeast Caribbean, and gusty squalls are apt connected Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands arsenic well.

Remember that the winds and rainfall connected the mountainous terrain volition beryllium greater than that astatine oversea level. Squalls and bands down the tempest mightiness nutrient the strongest gusts. Flash flooding and mudslides successful immoderate areas are possible, particularly connected the southbound and eastbound sides of Puerto Rico, wherever the moisture-laden winds are onshore. Maximum rainfall amounts up to 6 inches are forecast.

Everybody successful the islands should ticker for alerts issued by the National Weather Service successful San Juan.

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The upwind looks apt to deteriorate successful the southeastern Bahamas connected Sunday, spreading up the land concatenation Monday and Tuesday. Only fringe effects from the hurricane are expected, but highly beardown currents, ample waves, and other precocious tides are likely. Residents successful the Bahamas should enactment successful adjacent interaction with the latest forecast implicit the play to beryllium definite that Erin doesn't plaything wide and travel person to the islands than is presently expected.

All disposable credible grounds points to Erin paralleling the US East Coast good offshore - acold capable that upwind impacts on the seashore should beryllium minimal. The tempest volition turn successful size arsenic it moves north, however, which volition nutrient beardown swells moving toward the coast. Dangerous formation and boating conditions are likely.

This graphic shows expected question heights adjacent Thursday, August 22, 2025.

(FOX Weather / FOX Weather)

Energy radiating from Erin's circulation looks apt to interaction Florida's East Coast northbound of Palm Beach County and the Southeast coastline beneath Cape Hatteras connected Tuesday. The highest impacts look to beryllium from the Mid-Atlantic to New England precocious Wednesday and Thursday. High tide Thursday greeting could beryllium higher than mean with much almighty waves pounding the coast. Obviously, the timing could alteration arsenic things make adjacent week.

The National Hurricane Center volition analyse the size of the storm, the region from the coast, Erin's strength, and its forecast way to foretell which parts of the seashore volition consciousness the astir interaction from the question vigor Erin produces. Those forecasts volition travel retired good successful beforehand of immoderate important coastal effects.

Large and beardown hurricanes adjacent a fewer 100 miles offshore nutrient important and unsafe coastal impacts. Some bully news, however: the timing connected the tempest should person it moving good distant from the US East Coast by the weekend.

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This graphic shows an overview of tropical enactment successful the Atlantic Basin.

(Bryan Norcross / FOX Weather)

In the Gulf

The tropical disturbance tagged Invest 98L volition determination ashore contiguous adjacent the Mexico/Texas border. It inactive has a accidental of processing a circulation and being designated a tropical slump oregon Tropical Storm Fernand, but the main interaction volition beryllium dense rain. Flash flooding is imaginable successful South Texas, particularly successful the Rio Grande Valley eastbound of I-69C.

The tropical moisture volition determination into south-central Texas arsenic good and linger into the weekend. Stay alert of immoderate alerts issued by the National Weather Service.

Next Up successful the Atlantic

There is immoderate grounds that a disturbance moving disconnected of Africa this play could develop. About a week from present it mightiness beryllium successful the vicinity of the Caribbean islands and carnivore watching.

Some machine forecasts amusement it processing and others amusement nothing. As always, forecasts for systems that haven't yet developed oregon adjacent moved into the Atlantic are suspect. But that's the benignant of strategy we look for this clip of year.