Bryan Norcross: Erin likely to brush East Coast, cause dangerous conditions along beaches

Updated astatine 9:45 a.m. ET connected Monday, Aug. 18, 2025

Hurricane Erin is intensifying again. Now backmost up to Category 4. And the tempest is increasing successful size. Outer bands are lashing the Caribbean islands and volition interaction the confederate extremity of the Bahamian concatenation today.

A Tropical Storm Warning is successful effect for the Turks and Caicos and the southeastern Bahamas. A Tropical Storm Watch is successful effect for the cardinal Bahamas, meaning that sustained winds implicit 40 mph are imaginable if Erin wobbles a small spot to the left.

The authoritative National Hurricane Center forecast inactive calls for Erin to intensify a spot much arsenic it turns to the northbound aboriginal today. Meanwhile, the diameter of the country of beardown winds volition proceed to grow, putting a tremendous magnitude of vigor successful the water h2o from the Caribbean to Canada.

This outer representation shows Hurricane Erin connected Aug. 18, 2025.

(NOAA)

There is precocious assurance that the halfway of the tempest with the strongest winds volition walk betwixt North Carolina and Bermuda connected Wednesday. The worst of the upwind volition beryllium connected the Bermuda broadside of the storm, but if Erin tracks person to the near broadside of the cone arsenic immoderate machine forecasts indicate, outer bands volition interaction eastbound North Carolina and possibly immoderate of the surrounding areas.

Tropical Storm Watches mightiness beryllium required for the Outer Banks aboriginal today. The National Hurricane Center volition marque that valuation based connected the latest machine forecasts. Remember that a ticker means determination is simply a anticipation of sustained winds implicit 40 mph. This means gusts could scope 50 oregon 60 mph. The cardinal connection determination is possibility.

Obviously, folks successful Bermuda are watching Erin closely. If it veers to the close broadside of the cone, the upwind determination volition beryllium overmuch worse.

The biggest interaction from Erin's transition paralleling the East Coast volition beryllium from the large, eroding waves and beardown currents caused by the immense expanse of beardown winds blowing implicit the ocean. The highest impacts on the beaches and successful the waterways from Palm Beach County, Florida, to Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, look apt to hap time into Thursday, though the disturbed water volition statesman to beryllium noticeable today.

On Thursday, arsenic the hurricane moves north, the absorption of the vigor volition determination northbound to the coastline from Cape Hatteras to New England, including the Tidewater of Virginia, the Delmarva, the Jersey shore, Long Island, New York, and the New England coast.

These 2 images amusement the highest vigor successful achromatic – wherever Erin is producing the highest waves offshore. The timing connected the representation showing the highest adjacent North Carolina is astir midnight Wednesday night/Thursday morning. The representation with the highest farther northbound is astatine astir 8 p.m. Thursday evening.

The swells – fundamentally the vigor surges – generated by the hurricane volition nutrient large, almighty waves susceptible of important formation erosion, causing soil cliffs known arsenic escarpments successful immoderate coastal sections. The astir threatening times for the beaches and radical volition beryllium astatine precocious tide. But astatine each times, it volition beryllium unsafe to beryllium successful the water with the h2o overmuch supra ankle level on astir of the East Coast.

Plan to cheque with a harbormaster earlier doing immoderate boating successful the affected areas this week, and lone aquatics adjacent lifeguards.

Erin's winds are forecast to highest contiguous and past dilatory diminish arsenic the tempest moves northbound and arcs retired to sea. But don't fto the diminishing apical winds fool you. The powerfulness successful the circulation is simply spreading out, meaning it volition enactment vigor into a larger portion of the ocean.

Next successful enactment successful the tropical Atlantic

This graphic shows different tropical question successful the Atlantic Ocean connected Aug. 18, 2025.

(NHC)

A disturbance is making its mode crossed the tropical Atlantic toward the Caribbean. It's forecast to get astatine the islands astir Friday. The National Hurricane Center has the likelihood successful the mean scope that astatine slightest a slump volition signifier successful that ample orangish country that includes the northeastern Caribbean.

If the strategy develops into a tropical storm, it volition beryllium named Fernand.

The system's way implicit adjacent play and into adjacent week is an unfastened question. The machine forecasts person been flopping around, though the statement is that the strategy volition travel Erin to the northbound good offshore of the U.S. East Coast. We'll see. Forecasts for undeveloped systems are ever taxable to change, of course.