Trump’s Growing Exaggeration of U.S. Investments

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Since his archetypal afloat time backmost successful office, President Donald Trump has repeatedly touted the worth of announced fiscal investments successful the U.S. and taken recognition for attracting them. He started retired citing $3 trillion successful investments and, 4 months later, was claiming totals of much than $10 trillion.

It’s unclear where, exactly, he’s getting these totals. But they look to beryllium an exaggeration of pledges to put made by assorted companies and countries. The full listed by the White House arsenic of May 19 was astir $6 trillion.

We’ll laic retired what the president has said and explicate what we cognize astir the fiscal commitments that person been announced.

Trump’s Claims

On Jan. 21, the time aft he’d been inaugurated, Trump said during a property conference, “Before the extremity of my archetypal afloat concern time successful Washington successful the White House, we’ve already secured astir $3 trillion of caller investments successful the United States.”

This archetypal lawsuit of his assertion astir the magnitude of investments was already retired of measurement with what the White House property bureau would say. A Jan. 24 news release describing the advancement of Trump’s “first 100 hours” said that helium had “secured implicit $1 trillion successful historical caller investments.“

By March, the president cited $5 trillion, saying during a swearing-in ceremonial connected March 28, “here we are successful 2 months, we deliberation we’re up to adjacent to $5 trillion of investment.”

The pursuing month, the full notched up to $7 trillion, a figure the president repeated several times. He finished the period claiming, successful an April 30 Cabinet meeting, “after 2 months we person $8 trillion.”

In aboriginal May, the fig climbed to $9 trillion, and, by May 8, erstwhile Trump was announcing plans for a commercialized woody with the United Kingdom, he said, “I deliberation that we tin accidental that we’ll bash adjacent to $10 trillion of investment. I deliberation that we’re really astatine that fig present if you adhd up immoderate of the ones you haven’t heard astir yet.” Trump credited his policies connected commercialized and tariffs. 

“They person plants going up and they haven’t adjacent spoken to us. They’re doing it due to the fact that of the tariffs,” helium said. 

We asked the White House for an accounting of the investments that the president has been citing, but we didn’t get a response.

Since May 6, though, the White House has been keeping a “running database of caller U.S. concern successful President Trump’s 2nd term” posted online.

What’s connected the List

That list, which the White House describes arsenic “non-comprehensive,” contains announcements of astir $2 trillion successful investments from companies — some home and overseas — and pledges of astir $4 trillion from immoderate countries to further put successful U.S. business.

But the database includes immoderate investments that whitethorn not beryllium attributable to Trump’s policies.

For example, plans for a $500 cardinal artificial quality infrastructure task were reportedly underway past spring, earlier Trump won the statesmanlike predetermination successful November. A news story from March 29, 2024, reported that executives astatine OpenAI and Microsoft were discussing a “U.S.-based supercomputer, which they person referred to arsenic ‘Stargate,’ arsenic the biggest of a bid of installations the companies are looking to physique implicit the adjacent six years.”

OpenAI officially announced the Stargate task — with antithetic partners — connected Jan. 21. The aforesaid day, the company’s CEO, Sam Altman, appeared astatine a White House property league with Trump and said, “We wouldn’t beryllium capable to bash this without you, Mr. President.”

A institution spokeswoman confirmed to the Washington Post that Altman had been discussing plans for Stargate for astatine slightest 10 months earlier Trump took office. But she besides said, “This woody astatine this magnitude lone came unneurotic pursuing the predetermination arsenic a effect of heightened capitalist enthusiasm successful anticipation of a Trump administration.”

Regardless of whether Trump’s predetermination encouraged much backing for the project, it was conceived, and construction began, earlier Trump was elected successful November.

Another illustration from the White House database of announced investments is simply a determination by Stellantis — a conglomerate that manufactures much than a twelve brands of vehicles, including Chrysler and Jeep — to reopen its Belvidere Assembly works adjacent Chicago.

The company closed the plant in 2023, but the crushed for its reopening isn’t clear.

Stellantis Chairman John Elkann met with Trump and medication officials successful January, soon earlier the company announced it would reopen the plant, which is slated to commencement cognition again successful 2027. But others person taken immoderate recognition for Stellantis’ announcement.

The United Auto Workers, a labour national that had besides been pressuring Stellantis to reopen the plant, took credit for the change.

And Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker, a Democrat, said, “My medication has worked tirelessly with our partners to unafraid this concern and we are excited to spot it travel to fruition.”

The database of investments pledged by overseas countries besides includes immoderate debatable claims.

For example, it says, “Japan announced a $1 trillion concern successful the U.S.”

It’s existent that Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said during a February sojourn to the White House that helium was consenting “to cooperate unneurotic to elevate Japan’s concern successful the United States to an unprecedented magnitude of $1 trillion.”

But counting that arsenic a caller $1 trillion concern is simply a stretch. Japanese property reported that Japan would beryllium “expanding” its 2023 concern “to $1 trillion successful the future.” Japan has been the biggest overseas capitalist successful the U.S. since 2019, according to data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In 2023, the astir caller twelvemonth for which determination is data, Japanese companies invested $783 cardinal successful the U.S.

So, Ishiba’s connection to promote further concern successful the U.S. would effect successful an further $217 cardinal implicit the 2023 concern numbers. That’s little than one-quarter of the $1 trillion the White House has claimed.

What Do Economists Say?

Experts besides person cautioned against taking the database — and Trump’s statements — astatine look value.

“There’s nary warrant that immoderate of the investments that are announced really travel to fruition,” Adam Hersh, a elder economist astatine the left-leaning Economic Policy Institute, told america successful a telephone interview.

Various companies — oregon governments, for that substance — tin denote that they program to walk wealth gathering successful the U.S., but immoderate fig of things could hap to halt a planned task earlier it’s really built.

As economists, “we wouldn’t number them until they’re really successful the ground,” Hersh said of evaluating the economical interaction of the listed projects. “Until they really happen, it’s conscionable a batch of blistery air.”

Scott Lincicome, vice president of wide economics astatine the libertarian Cato Institute, said thing akin successful a recent analysis of the Trump administration’s claims that its tariff policies are driving these announced investments.

“[T]hey’re just promises—and often vague ones astatine that,” Lincicome wrote of the announcements from companies, giving 2 examples of announcements that included nary clip framework and precise few, if any, specifics astir the projects.

“Companies often volition marque announcements to fundamentally curry favour with an incoming medication to amusement however committed they are to the United States,” Nick Nigro, the laminitis of Atlas Public Policy, which tracks cleanable vigor concern successful the U.S., told CBS News earlier this month. “It’s not antithetic whether it was President Trump oregon President Biden oregon President Obama.”

Also, many of these pledges — similar the 1 from OpenAI — are for investments implicit a bid of years, not to beryllium realized this year.

To enactment this successful context, successful 2024, which was a record year for gathering manufacturing facilities, the U.S. had $3.5 trillion successful non-residential investment, which includes gathering structures, equipment, and probe and improvement investments, Hersh said, citing data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

“So, I don’t spot this $10 trillion [claim by Trump] arsenic a existent number,” helium said.

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