Trump’s Distortions on Cashless Bail

Since announcing the impermanent federal takeover of Washington, D.C.’s, instrumentality enforcement, President Donald Trump has repeatedly criticized authorities laws limiting the usage of currency bail. But his arguments person strayed from the facts successful 3 cardinal areas:

• Trump claimed that “every spot successful the state wherever you person nary currency bail is simply a disaster.” But the equilibrium of transgression information doesn’t enactment the thought that transgression has worsened arsenic a effect of the policies.

• The president misleadingly claimed that nether cashless bail policies, “Somebody murders idiosyncratic and they’re retired connected nary currency bail earlier the time is out.” Some states that necessitate cashless bail person exemptions for convulsive felonies and murder. And successful the states wherever it is imaginable for a execution fishy to beryllium freed pending proceedings without currency bail, per a judge’s discretion, it is exceedingly rare.

• Trump said, “We’re going to extremity that successful Chicago,” via national legislation. But it is unclear whether the U.S. Congress tin walk a instrumentality to straight nullify authorities bail laws.

Numerous states and cities person passed laws limiting the usage of currency bail, though each is simply a small different. Some states with cashless bail policies inactive let currency bail for convulsive felonies and murder, specified arsenic New York. Most see immoderate benignant of hazard appraisal to find whether idiosyncratic tin beryllium held successful jailhouse pending trial.

The determination successful immoderate states toward cashless bail was prompted by those who argued currency bail unfairly punishes those who can’t spend to wage it, leaving them to await proceedings successful jail. Opponents person criticized the laws arsenic soft-on-crime argumentation that worsens crime.

Trump, who has agelong railed against alleged cashless bail, raised the contented successful his Aug. 11 property league announcing the impermanent national takeover of instrumentality enforcement successful Washington, D.C, which includes an infusion of National Guard and different national instrumentality enforcement successful the nation’s capital.

“The extremist near City Council [in Washington] adopted nary currency bail,” Trump said. “By the way, each spot successful the state wherever you person nary currency bail is simply a disaster. That’s what started the occupation successful New York, and they don’t alteration it. … That’s what started it successful Chicago. I mean, atrocious politicians started it, atrocious enactment started it. But that was the 1 happening that’s central, nary currency bail.”

“Somebody murders idiosyncratic and they’re retired connected nary currency bail earlier the time is out,” Trump claimed.

Trump past vowed helium would overturn these section and authorities bail laws via national legislation.

“We’re going to extremity that successful Chicago,” Trump said. “But we’re going to alteration nary currency bail. We’re going to alteration the statute and get escaped of immoderate of the different things and we’ll number connected the Republicans successful Congress and Senate to vote. We person the majority, truthful we’ll vote.”

Crime Stats After Bail Changes

Although Trump claimed that “every spot successful the state wherever you person nary currency bail is simply a disaster,” transgression statistic wide don’t enactment that.

Trump specifically mentioned the policies successful New York and Chicago arsenic having “started the [crime] problem” successful those areas.

The Illinois Safety, Accountability, Fairness and Equality-Today Act — amended known arsenic the SAFE-T Act — was signed into instrumentality successful 2021. One portion of the law, known arsenic the Pretrial Fairness Act, eliminated currency bail for each offenses. It went into effect successful September 2023. However, the enactment inactive allowed judges to detain a idiosyncratic who is considered a formation hazard oregon who poses a menace to “any different idiosyncratic oregon the community.” A justice could besides detain idiosyncratic due to the fact that of the quality of the crime.

Overall, year-to-date transgression from January to August 2025 dropped 15% compared with the aforesaid play successful 2023, which was earlier the instrumentality went into effect, according to Chicago Police Department data. Murder is down 37%; robbery is down 36%; aggravated artillery is down 5%, and burglary is down 18%.

In September 2024, Loyola University of Chicago’s Center for Criminal Justice published a report comparing the archetypal six months of 2023 with the archetypal six months of 2024 (after the caller instrumentality went into effect). It recovered that convulsive crimes decreased by 7% and spot crimes by 14%.

“This does not reply the question of the PFA’s [Pretrial Fairness Act’s] impact, if any, connected transgression and nationalist safety,” the study states. “It’s possible, for example, that transgression would person declined further successful the lack of the PFA. But it does corroborate the unanimous consciousness of the Illinois practitioners we interviewed, that (as respective of them enactment it) ‘the entity did not fall’ erstwhile the PFA went into effect.”

As for New York, its bail laws person been revised respective times since the authorities Legislature created a 2019 instrumentality that eliminated the usage of money bail and jailhouse earlier proceedings for astir misdemeanors and lower-level felonies. When transgression began to emergence successful 2020 during the pandemic — arsenic it did astir the state successful cities careless of bail policies — lawmakers made respective revisions to the law, allowing judges the discretion to acceptable currency bail adjacent successful immoderate cases involving lower-level offenses. However, according to the Brennan Center for Justice, determination was “no grounds showing a transportation betwixt bail betterment and rising transgression rates.”

A study enactment retired by John Jay College of Criminal Justice successful October 2023 examined the effect of eliminating bail successful New York City and concluded, “Eliminating the enactment to acceptable bail nether the betterment was not associated with a alteration successful wide re-arrest, felony re-arrest, oregon convulsive felony re-arrest rates wrong either 2 years oregon during the pretrial period.” The survey did find a “statistically significant” summation successful convulsive felony re-arrests successful the pretrial play among “‘high risk’ individuals with a abstracted pending lawsuit astatine the clip of arraignment.” According to the authors, their findings were “broadly consistent” with 2 earlier studies that “found nary interaction of bail betterment connected transgression rates wrong New York City oregon statewide.”

According to New York City Criminal Justice Agency data, betwixt January and May of this year, astir 5% of those released pending proceedings were rearrested. Most of those rearrests were for misdemeanor offenses, but astir 1% of those awaiting proceedings were rearrested for nonviolent felonies and little than 1% for convulsive felonies.

A 2022 report from the U.S. Commission connected Civil Rights included an investigation of transgression trends successful Washington, D.C., betwixt 2015 and 2019 and concluded the city’s system, arsenic acceptable by the 1992 D.C. Bail Reform Act, “has been palmy successful releasing defendants pretrial without sacrificing nationalist information and maintaining precocious tribunal quality rates.”

“Throughout each of these years, betwixt 88 and 91 percent of individuals released pretrial appeared astatine their tribunal dates,” the study states. “Further, betwixt 86 and 89 percent of individuals who were released pretrial were not re-arrested during this period, and betwixt 98 percent and 99 percent of defendants released pretrial were not re-arrested during the pretrial play for a convulsive crime.”

Research by Jaquelyn L. Jahn astatine Drexel University and Jessica T. Simes and Jonathan Jay astatine Boston University published by the Journal of the American Medical Association successful 2024 focused connected the bail laws successful New Jersey and concluded that weapon unit did not summation oregon importantly alteration contempt important declines to jailhouse incarceration nether its caller policies, and adjacent arsenic nationalist rates of weapon unit accrued during its survey years.

That’s existent successful different places that person moved distant from currency bail arsenic well. The Brennan Center for Justice evaluated transgression trends successful 22 cities crossed the state that enacted immoderate signifier of bail policies aimed astatine reducing currency bail and compared them with cities that did not. The 2024 study recovered “no statistically important narration betwixt bail betterment and transgression rates. In different words, determination is nary crushed to judge that bail betterment has led to accrued crime.”

“These findings adhd to a increasing assemblage of lit showing that bail betterment is an improbable mentation for caller trends successful crime, whether increases oregon decreases,” the Brennan study stated. “And they suggest that policymakers’ caller absorption connected weakening bail reforms arsenic a effect to transgression has been misguided — and a distraction from smarter and much promising ways to heighten nationalist safety.” Among those alternatives, the study said, are expanding entree to intelligence wellness and substance maltreatment attraction programs.

The Trump Administration’s Case

A White House official, who reiterated Trump’s assertion that “cashless bail is simply a disastrous argumentation that makes cities crossed the state importantly much dangerous,” cited probe from Yolo County, California, wherever the territory lawyer spearheaded a 2022 analysis of the section effect of an exigency authorities pandemic argumentation adopted successful April 2020, mounting bail astatine “$0” for astir misdemeanors and nonviolent felonies — with immoderate exceptions.

According to the analysis, 70% of the radical released from custody nether the exigency guidelines were rearrested, and astir fractional of those released were rearrested much than once. Rearrest charges included 1 for homicide, 5 for attempted homicide, 32 for robbery and 46 for battle with a deadly weapon.

The pursuing year, the territory lawyer released a follow-up study that compared a random illustration of radical released arsenic portion of the exigency pandemic argumentation with a illustration of radical released with bail anterior to the pandemic, and concluded that those released arsenic portion of the pandemic argumentation were acold much apt to person been rearrested.

Notably, however, the California zero bail argumentation differed from astir modified bail policies successful different states successful that it did not see mandatory hazard assessments anterior to release. It was simply aimed astatine trying to relieve the dispersed of COVID-19 successful jails and courts by reducing the fig of defendants awaiting proceedings successful jail.

“The full constituent of this survey is not to statement the merits of immoderate benignant of bail reform. It’s to look astatine the contented of zero bail wherever radical are being automatically released,” Yolo County District Attorney Jeff Reisig, who initiated the study, told CBS News successful January.

The exigency argumentation resulted successful the merchandise of suspects by jailers, without judges considering things similar transgression past oregon repeated offenses, Reisig said. Reisig told CBS News the survey suggests judges should beryllium deciding who gets released without bail.

“I’m convinced, based connected the data, that judges would person held radical connected bail,” Reisig said.

“I really bash enactment astute bail reform,” Reisig said. “One-hundred percent. Zero-dollar bail is not astute bail reform, and it’s resulted successful radical being killed. That’s what the information shows. Now, let’s person immoderate robust discussions astir what, if anything, we bash to hole the bail system.”

Meanwhile, the Public Policy Institute of California did an analysis of the statewide effect of the state’s exigency zero-dollar bail argumentation and recovered that “during the aboriginal disruptive months of the COVID pandemic, implementation of exigency bail orders caused notable increases successful some the likelihood and fig of rearrests wrong 30 days.”

While astir of the rearrests were for felonies, determination was nary grounds of an summation successful convulsive felonies, the study stated.

“Lower-level offenders released connected zero bail were not much apt to beryllium rearrested for convulsive felonies aft implementation,” the study said. “About 4 months aft implementation, arsenic the astir volatile play of the pandemic passed, the wide effect connected rearrests began to wane, astatine slightest for the 27 counties that continued exigency orders done 2020. After a year, the mean effect of implementation was nary longer statistically significant.”

Moreover, the survey recovered that implicit clip arsenic counties revoked the exigency bail orders — which took spot from June 2020 to July 2023 — it “did not impact rearrests, careless of discourtesy type.”

“The disruptive quality of the pandemic was apt a cardinal origin successful the impermanent summation successful wide rearrests erstwhile exigency bail orders were successful place,” the report’s authors wrote. “Notably, increases successful felony rearrests did not subside implicit clip oregon erstwhile exigency orders were revoked.” (Emphasis theirs.)

Murderers Not Immediately Set Free

In his property league connected Aug. 11, Trump said that nether the policies, “Somebody murders idiosyncratic and they’re retired connected nary currency bail earlier the time is out.” In remarks connected Aug. 13, Trump again lambasted “cashless bail,” calling it “nonsense,” and said, “We privation to marque it truthful that people, if they execution somebody, they’re successful jail, they don’t get retired connected nary bail.”

The laws differ, but immoderate states urge nary merchandise for those charged with convulsive felonies and murders. That’s the lawsuit successful New Jersey and New York, for example.

But adjacent successful states that don’t stipulate specified restrictions, judges inactive person the discretion to contradict merchandise to defendants who are deemed a risk, including those charged with murder.

“In Illinois, each lawsuit has the discretion of the justice connected whether oregon not to merchandise the accused,” David Stovall, a module subordinate successful the Department of Criminology, Law and Justice astatine the University of Illinois Chicago, told america via email. “Currently nary 1 accused of execution (capital execution nor homicide) has been released to the public. It’s a misconception that’s rampant unfortunately.”

But determination was 1 case. As the White House noted, successful 2024 a Rockford, Illinois, justice released from jailhouse a antheral accused of first-degree execution pending his trial.

“I’ve considered the arguments of counsel, the grounds that’s been presented, the proffers, the pretrial work report, hazard assessments, and the defendant’s transgression history. I person a batch of concerns astir this,” Winnebago County Judge Debra Schafer said astatine the time. “It is simply a circumstantial link. There are nary allegations that [defendant] made immoderate statements relating to this. There are immoderate veiled statements by codefendant pointing fingers successful the absorption of [defendant].”

The justice said that portion determination was probable origin to determination the lawsuit forward, “I can’t find astatine this clip that there’s wide and convincing evidence” to detain him without bail “and consequently I person to merchandise him. That is arsenic a effect of this discourtesy and what I’m being held to [with the caller bail law].” The justice added, however, that the suspect was “going to person to travel immoderate reasonably strict requirements.”

We couldn’t find immoderate different examples of defendants facing execution charges being released without bail successful immoderate of the fistful of states that person enacted immoderate signifier of cashless bail.

“People charged with execution tin surely beryllium released pending trial,” Adam Gelb, president and CEO of the Council connected Criminal Justice, told america via email. “While it mightiness beryllium rare, it is legally imaginable arsenic pretrial merchandise is expected to beryllium based connected nationalist information hazard and hazard of flight/failure to look for trial. That appraisal is made by the judge/magistrate and nary bail reform, to our knowledge, mandated merchandise for radical charged with murder.”

The White House pointed to two convicted murderers who were released without bail successful New York aft being arrested connected cause dealing charges. But some of those cases progressive men who were antecedently convicted of execution and served lengthy situation sentences. They were some arrested connected cause charges aft they had been released from prison. Whether oregon not it was due oregon prudent to merchandise either of those men without bail, neither lawsuit progressive a idiosyncratic facing a execution complaint being released without wealth bail — the script Trump described.

Trump has long railed against “no currency bail,” often wrongly claiming it means that accused murderers are instantly fto spell pending trial.

In 2024, Trump claimed his opponent, past Vice President Kamala Harris, “supports abolishing currency bail, which means bloodthirsty criminals that conscionable killed idiosyncratic tin instantly permission custody, spell retired and termination idiosyncratic else, which, by the way, they often do.”

As we wrote astatine the time, that’s not however it works.

“It depends connected what currency bail is replaced with,” Kellen Funk, a ineligible historiographer and instrumentality prof astatine Columbia Law School, told america successful an email for that story. “No superior commentator oregon person has projected eliminating currency bail and replacing it lone with automatic release.”

Funk said proposals often “replace currency bail with judicial discretion,” which gives judges the enactment to detain defendants until trial, merchandise them with “nonfinancial conditions” specified arsenic cause investigating and a curfew, oregon merchandise them without conditions but a request to look successful court.

For “felony homicide,” helium said, “the instrumentality mightiness urge detention oregon acceptable a presumption successful favour of it, and successful astir cases successful signifier judges are inclined to bid detention erstwhile the charges impact convulsive felonies.”

Changing the Laws

In remarks connected Aug. 13, Trump said helium would commencement by trying to alteration the bail laws successful Washington, D.C., “and past yet for the remainder of the country.”

After the president made his announcement astir the impermanent takeover of Washington, D.C., instrumentality enforcement, House Oversight Committee Chair James Comer said his committee is “advancing legislative solutions to support Americans successful their superior city” and planned to clasp hearings with section officials successful September.

In his property league connected Aug. 11, Trump said, “We’re going to extremity that successful Chicago,” referring to the state’s nary currency bail law. He said helium would “count connected the Republicans successful Congress and Senate to vote. We person the majority, truthful we’ll vote.”

Immediately aft helium made his comments, Republican Rep. Elise Stefanik vowed that she “will beryllium starring authorities to extremity [New York Gov.] Kathy Hochul and New York’s failed bail betterment erstwhile and for each to Save New York and Save America.”

But portion the U.S. Congress has the authorization to overturn oregon modify laws passed by the Washington, D.C., government, that’s little wide erstwhile it comes to a national instrumentality overriding authorities bail laws.

Trump’s telephone for Congress to prohibition cashless bail policies astir the state “oversteps law boundaries,” Lisel Petis, argumentation manager of transgression justness and civilian liberties for the deliberation vessel R Street Institute, wrote successful a commentary aft Trump’s Aug. 11 property conference.

“The Constitution is beauteous wide connected this one,” Petis wrote. “The Tenth Amendment says that immoderate powers not fixed to the national authorities beryllium to the states oregon the people. That includes the powerfulness to determine however to grip bail. Congress has nary wide authorization to dictate however states acceptable their bail laws. Bail argumentation falls nether a state’s constabulary powers—the authorization to acceptable laws and procedures that support nationalist information and support order. These are halfway functions of authorities sovereignty.”

However, Congress could opt alternatively for a carrot-and-stick attack to discourage cashless bail policies by tying specified policies to a state’s eligibility for national grants. That’s what immoderate Democrats tried successful 2021 erstwhile they projected a bill that would person made “a authorities that uses a wealth bail strategy ineligible for funds nether the Edward Byrne Memorial Justice Assistance Grant Program.”

“There is truthful overmuch national wealth going into states,” Meryl Chertoff, an adjunct prof astatine Georgetown University Law School, told Time, “and what the President has done is say, if you don’t cooperate with maine on, let’s say, sanctuary metropolis policies oregon migration enforcement, I americium going to withhold wealth that goes into your programs.”

Tying instrumentality enforcement priorities to eligibility for national funding, Chertoff said, is “doing indirectly what helium [Trump] cannot nether the 10th Amendment, which provides states with a grade of autonomy.”

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The station Trump’s Distortions connected Cashless Bail appeared archetypal connected FactCheck.org.