Assessing Claims About the Reliability of D.C. Crime Data

The Trump medication has accused the Washington, D.C., constabulary section of reporting “phony transgression stats” and “cooking the books,” citing the suspension of a constabulary commandant for allegedly altering transgression data. The U.S. attorney’s bureau successful the territory reportedly opened an probe into whether metropolis officials had manipulated transgression statistics.

But experts told america information amusement a diminution successful convulsive transgression successful Washington successful caller years, and the execution complaint statistic successful peculiar are “very reliable.”

Here’s what we cognize astir the allegations.

The Metropolitan Police Department released crime statistics connected Aug. 11 that showed the fig of homicides successful the metropolis had decreased by 32% from 2023 to 2024 and by 12% truthful acold from 2024 to 2025, as we’ve written. Violent transgression wide for 2024 was down 35% from the erstwhile twelvemonth and was “the lowest it has been successful implicit 30 years,” the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the District of Columbia reported in January.

“In summation to the wide convulsive transgression reduction, homicides are down 32%; robberies are down 39%; equipped carjackings are down 53%; assaults with a unsafe weapon are down 27% erstwhile compared with 2023 levels, with the District reporting the fewest assaults with unsafe weapons and burglaries successful implicit 30 years,” according to the property merchandise from then-U.S. Attorney Matthew M. Graves. 

President Donald Trump, however, declared a “crime emergency” successful Washington connected Aug. 11 to warrant a federal takeover of the city’s instrumentality enforcement. He wrongly claimed at a property league that day, “Murders successful 2023 reached the highest complaint astir apt ever” successful Washington. (The peak execution complaint was successful 1991.)

The president besides issued a memo to deploy the National Guard astir the city, and much than 2,000 troops from the territory and six states were expected to beryllium deployed arsenic of Aug. 19.

The president discounted the transgression information from the MPD, saying astatine a property lawsuit connected Aug. 14 that Washington constabulary “are giving america phony transgression stats.” A White House merchandise issued Aug. 11 claimed, “Metro Police Department enactment are allegedly cooking the books to marque transgression statistic look much favorable.”

In an Aug. 18 Truth Social post, Trump said, “D.C. gave Fake Crime numbers successful bid to make a mendacious illusion of safety. This is simply a precise atrocious and unsafe happening to do, and they are nether superior probe for truthful doing!”

The New York Times reported the adjacent time that the U.S. attorney’s bureau successful Washington had opened an probe into “whether metropolis constabulary officials falsified transgression data, according to 2 radical acquainted with the matter.” That probe is being conducted by erstwhile judge, Fox News big and Trump appointee Jeanine Pirro, who was sworn successful arsenic interim U.S. lawyer for the territory connected May 14.

When we asked the White House for grounds that the MPD transgression information wasn’t accurate, a spokesperson referred america to a report connected NBC4 astir an probe into a constabulary commandant for allegedly altering his district’s transgression statistics. MPD Commander Michael Pulliam was placed connected administrative permission successful May “for questionable changes to transgression data,” the Washington quality presumption reported. Pulliam denied the allegations.

Gregg Pemberton, president of the D.C. constabulary union, told the quality presumption that constabulary section supervisors alteration transgression information to springiness the quality that convulsive transgression incidents person fallen. “When our members respond to the country of a felony discourtesy wherever determination is simply a unfortunate reporting that a felony occurred, inevitably determination volition beryllium a lieutenant oregon a skipper that volition amusement up connected that country and nonstop those members to instrumentality a study for a lesser offense,” Pemberton said.

America First Legal, a radical founded by Stephen Miller, the White House lawman main of unit for policy, filed a Freedom of Information Act petition connected Aug. 14 for each transgression information compiled by the MPD and “all email communications oregon interior guidance reflecting immoderate changes successful the department’s tracking oregon reporting of crimes successful the city, arsenic good arsenic immoderate records ‘reflecting the falsification oregon non-publication’ of transgression information and statistics,” including communications related to Pulliam, according to Fox News. 

America First Legal besides cited an nonfiction successful the Washington Free Beacon astir “a erstwhile constabulary sergeant, Charlotte Djossou, who allegedly sued MPD leaders successful 2020 for ‘misclassifying offenses’ to deflate D.C. transgression statistics,” Fox News reported. Djossou’s suit was settled retired of tribunal earlier this month, ABC 7News reported.

We reached retired to the MPD for remark connected the Pulliam probe and the White House claims astir constabulary data, but we didn’t person a response.

Police Chief Pamela Smith released a statement to News4 regarding the Pulliam investigation, saying: “The Metropolitan Police Department is committed to upholding the spot and the assurance of the public. Any irregularity successful transgression information brought to my attraction volition beryllium addressed immediately. I bash not condone immoderate authoritative reclassifying transgression offenses extracurricular the guidelines acceptable successful MPD policy. Any allegation of this behaviour volition beryllium dealt with done our interior processes, which volition guarantee those members are held accountable. I person the utmost assurance successful the bid unit enactment presently successful spot crossed the Metropolitan Police Department.”

Asked by News4 astir the Pulliam investigation, Washington Mayor Muriel Bowser said connected Aug. 12, “[W]e are completing that probe and we don’t judge it implicates galore cases.”

Pemberton, from the constabulary union, told NBC News, “I deliberation that there’s a anticipation that transgression has travel down,” but helium questioned the size of the diminution reported by the department. 

Expert Says D.C. Police Murder Stats ‘Very Reliable’

We don’t cognize the details of the Pulliam probe oregon the colony of the Djossou lawsuit, but we asked autarkic experts astir their wide assurance successful the information provided by the Washington police, which those experts utilized successful caller analyses.

“I deliberation the statistic utilized to find DC’s execution complaint are precise reliable,” said Jeff Asher, a co-founder of AH Datalytics, a consulting steadfast that compiles an aggregation of transgression information provided by instrumentality enforcement agencies passim the U.S.

“DC’s publically disposable execution statistic lucifer up astir identically with what is being reported to the FBI and the trends successful DC’s execution statistic precise intimately travel the trends shown successful autarkic sources specified arsenic the Gun Violence Archive and a firearm wounded dashboard maintained by the DC wellness department,” Asher told america successful an email. “As such, I person precocious assurance successful the reliability of the execution data.”

But, Asher noted, transgression information is “inherently imperfect.” His enactment conducts “an audit to place agencies with wide underreporting issues and bash not see them successful our tallies.”

Asher previously told us that Trump was incorrect erstwhile helium claimed murders were astatine an all-time precocious successful Washington. “DC’s execution complaint successful 2023 was 39 per [100,000] which was the highest successful the metropolis since 2003. That was inactive down much than 50% from 1991’s execution complaint of much than 80 per 100K erstwhile the metropolis had 482 murders. It has besides since fallen and is connected gait with 2019’s gait truthful acold successful 2025,” he said, citing information MPD reported to the FBI.

Regarding the wide transgression statistic provided by the MPD, Asher said, “I judge that DC is underreporting information connected its nationalist website though I’ll enactment that transgression information issues hap with departments each the time. This does not look to beryllium an contented successful presumption of their reporting patterns to the FBI, but the nationalist information is apt overstating a decline” successful crime.

Asked astir the probe into the Washington constabulary commander, helium said, “I’m skeptical that 1 commandant — particularly astatine a territory level — could beryllium liable for the entirety of underreporting citywide … but I’m not successful a presumption to accidental 1 mode oregon the different successful this case. I volition enactment that the driblet successful DC’s robberies successful the nationalist information person been reasonably azygous crossed districts suggesting that a azygous territory commandant is not responsible.”

Ernesto Lopez, elder probe specializer astatine the Council connected Criminal Justice, an autarkic deliberation tank, explained the process utilized by the CCJ successful its Aug. 11 study that recovered a important alteration successful convulsive transgression successful Washington successful caller years.

The Aug. 11 report issued by CCJ said that “overall, determination is an unmistakable and ample driblet successful reported unit successful the District since the summertime of 2023, erstwhile determination were peaks successful homicide, weapon assaults, robbery, and carjacking. That downward inclination is accordant with what’s being reported successful different ample cities crossed the country, portion the level of unit successful Washington remains higher than mean successful our sample.” The study besides said, “The homicide complaint successful DC fell 19% successful the archetypal fractional of this twelvemonth (January-June 2025) compared to the akin play past year.”

In compiling its report, Lopez told america successful an email, “We execute 2 checks of the transgression information for our transgression trends report. First, we verify that the incidental counts for Part 1 offenses approximate what is reported” to the FBI’s Uniform Crime Reporting program. (Part 1 offenses are homicide, rape, robbery, aggravated assault, burglary, larceny, centrifugal conveyance theft, arson and quality trafficking.)

“If the numbers we cod from a section constabulary section deviate by 25% from what is reported successful the UCR, we bash not see that offense,” Lopez said. “We had 42 cities successful our past mid-year report, yet we included aggravated battle statistic from lone 23 agencies. That means the aggravated battle counts we collected from 19 agencies importantly deviated from published FBI data. As galore instrumentality enforcement agencies note, and we bash arsenic well, these counts are preliminary and whitethorn not lucifer last authoritative numbers.”

“We besides mostly cod each the information again for each caller study and comparison past information to newer data. This allows america to spot if determination was a large displacement successful however agencies study an discourtesy (or adjacent errors connected our end),” Lopez besides said.

“For homicide, we execute 1 further cheque and effort to verify our homicide counts with either a media root oregon different published root from the constabulary department, specified arsenic a year-to-date oregon monthly summary of crime. If the numbers importantly deviate, we bash not see the counts for that metropolis successful our report,” helium said.   

Regarding the claims by the Washington constabulary national chair, Asher, of AH Datalytics, told us, “It’s perfectly imaginable for municipal leaders to unit officers to driblet transgression counts. There are tons of examples of this but it’s a comparatively uncommon occurrence. More often than not the mentation of underreporting is simply a benign reporting contented which whitethorn oregon whitethorn not beryllium the lawsuit here.”

Lopez, of the Council connected Criminal Justice, besides noted, “The governmental rhetoric astir transgression is not straightforward. While section leaders whitethorn effort to contiguous transgression arsenic little serious, the other tin besides beryllium true. Crime tin beryllium utilized arsenic a instrumentality to beforehand a tough-on-crime governmental docket to garner enactment for policies.”

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