The last US-Russian nuclear pact is about to expire, ending a half-century of arms control

The past remaining atomic arms pact betwixt Russia and the United States is acceptable to expire Thursday, removing immoderate caps connected the 2 largest atomic arsenals for the archetypal clip successful much than a half-century.

The termination of the New START Treaty would acceptable the signifier for what galore fearfulness could beryllium an unconstrained atomic arms race.

Russian President Vladimir Putin declared readiness to instrumentality to the treaty’s limits for different twelvemonth if Washington follows suit, but President Donald Trump has been noncommittal astir extending it.

Trump has repeatedly indicated helium would similar to support limits connected atomic weapons and impact China successful arms power talks, a White House authoritative who was not authorized to speech publically and spoke connected information of anonymity said Monday. Trump volition marque a determination connected atomic arms power “on his ain timeline,” the authoritative said.

Beijing has balked astatine immoderate restrictions connected its smaller but increasing atomic arsenal.

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Tuesday it would beryllium a “more dangerous” satellite without limits connected U.S. and Russian atomic stockpiles.

Arms power advocates agelong person voiced interest astir the expiration of New START, informing it could pb to a caller Russia-U.S. arms race, foment planetary instability and summation the hazard of atomic conflict.

Pope Leo XIV connected Wednesday called for the pact “not to beryllium abandoned without seeking to guarantee its factual and effectual continuation.”

Failure to hold connected keeping the pact’s limits volition apt promote a bigger deployment, said Daryl Kimball, enforcement manager of the Arms Control Association successful Washington.

“We’re astatine the constituent present wherever the 2 sides could, with the expiration of this treaty, for the archetypal clip successful astir 35 years, summation the fig of atomic weapons that are deployed connected each side,” Kimball told The Associated Press. “And this would unfastened up the anticipation of an unconstrained, unsafe three-way arms race, not conscionable betwixt the U.S. and Russia, but besides involving China, which is besides expanding its smaller but inactive deadly atomic arsenal.”

Kingston Reif of the RAND Corporation, a erstwhile U.S. lawman adjunct caput of defense, besides warned during an online treatment that “in the lack of the predictability of the treaty, each broadside could beryllium incentivized to program for the worst oregon to summation their deployed arsenals to amusement toughness and resolve, oregon to hunt for negotiating leverage.”

Putin repeatedly has brandished Russia’s atomic mightiness since sending troops into Ukraine successful February 2022, informing Moscow was prepared to usage “all means” to support its information interests. In 2024, helium signed a revised atomic doctrine lowering the threshold for atomic weapons use.

Signed successful 2010

New START, signed successful 2010 by U.S. President Barack Obama and his Russian counterpart, Dmitry Medvedev, restricted each broadside to nary much than 1,550 atomic warheads connected nary much than 700 missiles and bombers — deployed and acceptable for use. It was primitively expected to expire successful 2021 but was extended for 5 much years.

The pact envisioned sweeping on-site inspections to verify compliance, though they stopped successful 2020 due to the fact that of the COVID-19 pandemic and ne'er resumed.

In February 2023, Putin suspended Moscow’s participation, saying Russia couldn’t let U.S. inspections of its atomic sites astatine a clip erstwhile Washington and its NATO allies person openly declared Moscow’s decision successful Ukraine arsenic their goal. At the aforesaid time, the Kremlin emphasized it wasn’t withdrawing from the pact altogether, pledging to respect its caps connected atomic weapons.

In offering successful September to abide by New START’s limits for a twelvemonth to bargain clip for some sides to negociate a successor agreement, Putin said the pact's expiration would beryllium destabilizing and could substance atomic proliferation.

Rose Gottemoeller, the main U.S. negotiator for pact and a erstwhile NATO lawman secretary-general, said extending it would person served U.S. interests. “A one-year hold of New START limits would not prejudice immoderate of the captious steps that the United States is taking to respond to the Chinese atomic buildup,” she told an online treatment past month.

Previous pacts

New START followed a agelong succession of U.S.-Russian atomic arms simplification pacts, starting with SALT I successful 1972 signed by U.S. President Richard Nixon and Soviet person Leonid Brezhnev — the archetypal effort to bounds their arsenals.

The 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty restricted the countries’ rocket defence systems until President George W. Bush took the U.S. retired of the pact successful 2001 contempt Moscow’s warnings. The Kremlin has described Washington’s efforts to physique a rocket shield arsenic a large threat, arguing it would erode Russia’s atomic deterrent by giving the U.S. the capableness to sprout down its intercontinental ballistic missiles.

As a effect to the U.S. rocket shield, Putin ordered the improvement of the Burevestnik nuclear-tipped and nuclear-powered cruise rocket and the Poseidon nuclear-armed and nuclear-powered underwater drone. Russia said past twelvemonth it successfully tested the Poseidon and the Burevestnik and was preparing their deployment.

Also terminated successful 2019 was the Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces Treaty, which was signed successful 1987 and banned land-based missiles with a scope betwixt 500-5,500 kilometers (310-3,400 miles). Those missiles were seen arsenic peculiarly destabilizing due to the fact that of their abbreviated formation clip to their targets, leaving lone minutes to determine connected a retaliatory onslaught and expanding the menace of a atomic warfare connected a mendacious warning.

In November 2024 and again past month, Russia attacked Ukraine with a accepted mentation of its caller Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile. Moscow says it has a scope of up to 5,000 kilometers (3,100 miles), susceptible of reaching immoderate European target, with either atomic oregon accepted warheads.

Trump's ‘Golden Dome’

Without agreements limiting atomic arsenals, Russia “will promptly and firmly fend disconnected immoderate caller threats to our security,” said Medvedev, who had signed the New START pact and is present lawman caput of Putin's Security Council.

“If we are not heard, we enactment proportionately seeking to reconstruct parity,” helium said successful caller remarks.

Medvedev specifically mentioned Trump's projected Golden Dome rocket defence strategy among perchance destabilizing moves, emphasizing a adjacent nexus betwixt violative and antiaircraft strategical weapons.

Trump’s program has disquieted Russia and China, Kimball said.

“They’re apt going to respond to Golden Dome by gathering up the fig of violative weapons they person to overwhelm the strategy and marque definite that they person the imaginable to retaliate with atomic weapons,” helium said, adding that violative capabilities tin beryllium built faster and cheaper than antiaircraft ones.

Trump’s October connection astir U.S. intentions to resume atomic tests for the archetypal clip since 1992 besides troubled the Kremlin, which past conducted a trial successful 1990 erstwhile the USSR inactive existed. Putin said Russia volition respond successful benignant if the U.S. resumes tests, which are banned by a planetary pact that Moscow and Washington signed.

U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said successful November that specified tests would not see atomic explosions.

Kimball said a U.S. resumption of tests “would stroke a monolithic spread successful the planetary strategy to trim atomic risk,” prompting Russia to respond successful benignant and tempting others, including China and India, to travel suit.

The satellite was heading toward accelerated strategical competition, helium said, with much spending and progressively unstable relations involving the U.S., Russia, and China connected atomic matters.

“This marks a imaginable turning constituent into a overmuch much unsafe play of planetary atomic competition, the likes of which we’ve not seen successful our lifetimes,” Kimball added.

__

Associated Press writer Michelle L. Price successful Washington contributed.

—-

The Associated Press receives enactment for atomic information sum from the Carnegie Corporation of New York and Outrider Foundation. The AP is solely liable for each content.

___

Additional AP coverage: https://apnews.com/projects/the-new-nuclear-landscape/

Copyright 2026 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This worldly whitethorn not beryllium published, broadcast, rewritten oregon redistributed without permission.