How accurate are Punxsutawney Phil's Groundhog Day predictions?

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With overmuch of the United States facing freezing temperatures, galore are hoping for an aboriginal outpouring forecast travel Groundhog Day 2026 connected Monday.

Last year, Punxsutawney Phil saw his shadiness connected Groundhog Day 2025 — predicting that determination would beryllium six much weeks of winter. Phil's forecast was incorrect past year, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. There were adjacent mean temperatures successful February 2025 and supra mean temperatures successful March 2025 successful the contiguous U.S.

But conscionable however close has Phil been since helium started being utilized for upwind predictions much than 130 years ago?

According to the legend, if Phil sees his shadiness connected Feb. 2, helium predicts six further weeks of winter. But if helium doesn't spot his shadow, helium predicts an aboriginal spring. Unfortunately, his forecasting way grounds since 1887 has been a spot spotty.

"Predicting the accomplishment of springtime for an full country, particularly 1 with specified varied determination climates arsenic the United States, isn't easy! Phil's way grounds is grounds of that," according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

What has Phil predicted connected Groundhog Day?

Phil makes his prediction each twelvemonth connected Feb. 2, halfway betwixt the Winter Solstice and Spring Equinox. More often than not, Punxsutawney Phil sees his shadow, a motion of much winter.

Between 1887 and 2023, the forecasting groundhog saw its shadiness 107 times, according to NOAA. There was nary shadiness to beryllium seen 20 times. During the precocious 1800s, 10 years were mislaid due to the fact that no records were kept, according to the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club. In 1942, Phil had a partial shadow, and the pursuing year, helium didn't marque an appearance. Records bash not specify wherefore Phil skipped his 1943 appearance.

Groundhog handler holds Punxsutawney Phil

Are Phil's Groundhog Day predictions accurate?

Punxsutawney Phil is simply a groundhog, not a meteorologist. Between 2013 and 2023, helium saw his shadiness 7 times, and of those seven, helium was close lone once.

NOAA's determinations on Phil's accuracy are based connected temperatures successful February and March. Here's however it breaks down:

2013: No shadiness — His prediction was right.
2014: Shadow — His prediction was right.
2015: Shadow — His prediction was wrong.
2016: No shadiness — His prediction was right.
2017: Shadow — His prediction was wrong.
2018: Shadow — His prediction was wrong.
2019: No shadiness — His prediction was wrong.
2020: No shadiness — His prediction was right.
2021: Shadow — His prediction was wrong.
2022: Shadow — His prediction was wrong.
2023: Shadow — His prediction was wrong.
2024: No shadiness — His prediction was right.
2025: Shadow - His prediction was wrong.
2026: We'll find out

On average, Phil has gotten it close 30% of the clip implicit the past decade, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Overall, the Stormfax Almanac says, Phil has lone been close 39% of the clip going backmost to his archetypal recorded prediction successful 1887.

Where did the Groundhog Day contented adjacent travel from?

Groundhog Day has its roots successful some pagan and Christian traditions, including Imbolc and Candlemas. Early Christians believed that wide skies connected Candlemas Day, which falls connected Feb. 2, meant a longer wintertime was ahead, according to the National Weather Service. They believed a cloudy time foreshadowed the extremity of winter.

European upwind lore details utilizing a badger to foretell the upwind during the mid-winter holidays. When Germans came to America and settled successful Pennsylvania, they brought on the tradition, but not the badger, the NWS said. They began utilizing a groundhog arsenic a replacement.

The contented was formalized arsenic Groundhog Day acknowledgment to Clymer H. Freas, the exertion of the Punxsutawney Spirit Newspaper, according to the NWS. Freas proclaimed Punxsutawney Phil, the section groundhog, arsenic the authoritative upwind forecasting groundhog.

He present makes his prediction each twelvemonth from Gobbler's Knob and shares it with what the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club describes arsenic his "Inner Circle."

"After Phil emerges from his burrow connected February 2, helium speaks to the Groundhog Club president successful 'Groundhogese' (a connection lone understood by the existent president of the Inner Circle). His proclamation is past translated for the world," according to the club.

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