FactChecking Trump’s State of the Union Address

Summary

In the archetypal State of the Union code of his 2nd term, President Donald Trump proclaimed that “our federation is back, bigger, better, richer and stronger than ever before.”

“What a quality a president makes,” Trump said. “A abbreviated clip ago, we were a dormant country. Now we are the hottest state anyplace successful the world.”

But our reappraisal of his code recovered that helium distorted a fig of facts astir the authorities of the economy, wellness care, migration and different topics.

• Trump falsely claimed that helium inherited “a stagnant economy” with “inflation astatine grounds levels.” Annual maturation successful existent GDP was 2.5% oregon higher each twelvemonth nether erstwhile President Joe Biden. The yearly ostentation complaint was 3%, down from its highest of 9.1% nether Biden, erstwhile Trump took office.

• The president went connected to assertion that the system “is roaring similar ne'er before,” but existent GDP maturation successful 2025 was down to 2.2%, according to a national estimate. Also, the unemployment complaint has accrued somewhat nether Trump.

• He misleadingly claimed that prices are “plummeting downward” due to the fact that of his policies. The yearly complaint of ostentation has declined, but prices wide are inactive increasing.

• Trump’s assertion that “more Americans are moving contiguous than astatine immoderate clip successful the past of our country,” portion accurate, doesn’t relationship for colonisation growth. Job maturation slowed a spot past year.

• The president misleadingly claimed that Americans “will present wage the lowest terms anyplace successful the satellite for drugs.” The administration’s negotiations with cause companies whitethorn person lowered prices for immoderate circumstantial drugs successful definite situations, but determination is nary grounds of a wide diminution successful prices.

• He repeated his exaggerated assertion that, “In 12 months, I secured commitments for much than $18 trillion pouring successful from each implicit the globe.”

• Trump made the unsupported assertion that “the travel of deadly fentanyl crossed our borderline is down by a grounds 56% successful 1 year.”

• The president continued to exaggerate the diminution successful gasoline prices, saying they are “now beneath $2.30 a gallon successful astir states.” In nary authorities was the mean that low. And the nationwide mean is $2.94.

• Trump continued to marque his inflated assertion astir ending “eight wars.”

• He claimed to person presided implicit a “tremendous renewal” of religion successful America, but caller polling has recovered the opposite.

• Trump claimed that $1,776 “warrior dividend” bonus checks paid to subject unit came from tariff revenue, but it was really a reallocation of funds initially earmarked for an accrued lodging allowance.

• The president repeated his unsupported assertion that galore immigrants came from “prisons” and “mental institutions,” and helium wrongly claimed that the Biden medication allowed successful “11,888 murderers.”

• Trump boasted astir banal marketplace gains since his election, but the gains were little than each of the past 2 years nether Biden.

• He exaggerated erstwhile helium said his signature authorities eliminated taxation connected tips, overtime and Social Security benefits for seniors. The taxation breaks are important but bash not use to each individuals.

• As helium has for years, Trump insisted, without evidence, that “cheating is rampant successful our elections.” And helium claimed authorities was needed “to halt amerciable aliens” from voting, though grounds suggests that’s rare.

• Trump claimed that the national fund could beryllium balanced “if we’re capable to find capable of that fraud.” The astir caller fund shortage was $1.8 trillion, much than 3 times higher than the highest national estimation of authorities wealth mislaid annually to fraud.

• Trump claimed that helium inherited “rampant transgression astatine home” and aboriginal boasted that “last year, the execution complaint saw its azygous largest diminution successful recorded history.” Crime and execution was down past year, continuing a inclination that began successful 2022.

• Trump made the dubious assertion that his accrued tariffs would 1 time regenerate income taxes, thing galore economists accidental doesn’t adhd up.

• Trump claimed that the U.S. “obliterated Iran’s atomic weapons program” past year. Experts person said the programme was damaged but not destroyed, and Trump is present considering subject enactment implicit Iran’s atomic program.

• Trump said Republicans would “always protect” Medicaid. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act’s changes to the programme trim spending by much than $900 cardinal and are estimated to effect successful 7.5 cardinal less radical with wellness insurance.

• Trump said “American lipid accumulation is up by much than 600,000 barrels a day,” erstwhile crude lipid accumulation accrued by 334,600 barrels per time successful his archetypal afloat 10 months successful office.

• He besides claimed that U.S. earthy state accumulation accrued to “an all-time high” due to the fact that helium “kept” his “promise to drill, baby, drill.” Production of earthy state was already astatine grounds levels earlier helium took office.

Trump’s Feb. 24 address was longer than immoderate anterior SOTU, clocking successful astatine implicit 1 hr and 47 minutes, arsenic measured by the American Presidency Project astatine the University of California, Santa Barbara.

Analysis

What Trump Inherited

Trump falsely claimed that helium inherited “a stagnant economy” with “inflation astatine grounds levels.”

Economists person told america that the U.S. system nether Joe Biden was not stagnant. “Real GDP maturation during the Biden presidency was affirmative and often supra trend, and unemployment remained historically low,” Kyle Handley, a prof of economics astatine the University of California, San Diego, told america for a Feb. 11 story.

Bureau of Economic Analysis data amusement that nether Biden, existent gross home merchandise (meaning it has been adjusted for inflation), grew astatine an yearly complaint of 6.2% successful 2021 (during the COVID-19 recovery), 2.5% successful 2022, 2.9% successful 2023 and 2.8% successful 2024. Meanwhile, the unemployment complaint besides decreased nether Biden, going from 6.4% erstwhile helium was inaugurated to 4% successful his past month, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The mean monthly unemployment complaint for Biden’s presidency was 4.1%, beneath the humanities average

As for inflation, erstwhile Trump took office, the annualized complaint of ostentation was 3%, based on the Consumer Price Index. That was acold from the 9.1% complaint successful June 2022, nether Biden, which was the highest 12-month summation since November 1981, according to the BLS. The worst inflation in U.S. past was not agelong aft World War I, erstwhile the Consumer Price Index was up 23.7% for the 12 months ending successful June 1920.

Roaring Economy?

Trump aboriginal said successful his code that “the roaring system is roaring similar ne'er before.” But nether Trump, existent GDP maturation was down to an yearly complaint of 2.2% successful 2025, and the unemployment complaint was up to 4.3% arsenic of January.

Trump besides claimed that the 43-day shutdown of the national authorities ended up “costing america 2 points” connected GDP.

Fourth 4th maturation successful 2025 was 1.4%, overmuch little than economists had projected. The Bureau of Economic Analysis said that was partially owed to the extended shutdown, but attributed conscionable 1 percent constituent — not 2 — of reduced GDP maturation to the shutdown.

Prices

Trump misleadingly claimed to beryllium bringing down “high prices” helium blamed connected Democrats.

“Their policies created the precocious prices,” the president said. “Our policies are rapidly ending them. We are doing truly well. Those prices are plummeting downward.”

He went connected to sanction immoderate nutrient items that helium claimed person seen mean terms declines and cited vigor prices arsenic well. “Nobody tin judge erstwhile they spot the benignant of numbers, particularly energy,” helium said. “When they spot vigor going down to numbers similar that, they cannot judge it.”

Prices had accrued substantially during the archetypal fractional of Biden’s term, owed mostly to the economic fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic — not conscionable Democratic policies.

Furthermore, wide prices are not down nether Trump. As we said, successful January, the yearly ostentation complaint was down to 2.4%, which is supra the 2% target set by the Federal Reserve. So, prices are inactive increasing, but astatine a slower gait than erstwhile Trump took office.

In addition, portion the mean terms of some market items, specified arsenic eggs and bread, person travel down since the commencement of Trump’s 2nd term, different items, specified arsenic beef, oregon crushed chuck, person seen an mean terms increase, contrary to what Trump said. And mean nutrient prices wide are up alternatively of down. As of January, the Consumer Price Index for at-home nutrient products purchased astatine a market store oregon supermarket had accrued astir 2.2%, twelvemonth implicit year, according to the astir caller BLS data. 

As for vigor prices, it wasn’t wide from his remarks which vigor prices Trump was referencing. The CPI for energy overall was down 0.3% for the 12 months ending successful January, portion the scale for household energy specifically roseate 6.6% successful that period, according to BLS data. Also, the mean terms of electricity per kilowatt hour has risen astir 7.3% successful the past year.

Record Employment

During the speech, Trump claimed, “More Americans are moving contiguous than astatine immoderate clip successful the past of our country.” While accurate, the statistic loses immoderate luster erstwhile factoring successful dependable U.S. colonisation growth. In fact, occupation maturation slowed and the employment-to-population ratio declined a spot successful the archetypal twelvemonth of Trump’s 2nd term.

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, determination were 158,627,000 radical employed successful the U.S. successful January, and that’s the highest fig connected record. But by and large, arsenic the population of the U.S. has grown implicit the years, truthful excessively has the fig of radical employed successful the U.S., with notable exceptions during recessions.

Since employment recovered from the COVID-19 pandemic successful mid-2022, jobs person reached caller highs astir each azygous month. Trump’s assertion besides overlooks that occupation maturation was little betwixt January 2025 and January 2026 nether Trump — a summation of 359,000 jobs oregon 0.2% — than it was for Biden’s last twelvemonth — a summation of 1.2 cardinal jobs oregon 0.8.%.

There are other, much applicable statistics, connected employment maturation that origin successful colonisation growth. BLS’ employment-population ratio, which is the percent of the colonisation that is working, declined from 60.1% successful January 2025 to 59.8% successful January 2026. Another measurement is the labor unit information rate, which is the percent of the full colonisation implicit property 16 that is either employed oregon actively seeking work. That complaint has stayed comparatively the same, going from 62.6% successful January 2025 to 62.5% successful January 2026. The so-called “prime age” labour unit information rate, focusing conscionable connected those ages 25 to 54, roseate from 83.5% successful January 2025 to 84.1% successful January 2026.

Drug Prices

Trump misleadingly said that helium had taken medicine drugs “from the highest terms successful the full satellite to the lowest.” He besides said that Americans “will present wage the lowest terms anyplace successful the satellite for drugs.”

The Trump administration’s negotiations with drugmakers whitethorn person lowered prices for circumstantial drugs to immoderate degree, and successful constricted situations. However, there’s nary grounds of a wide alteration successful U.S. cause prices, arsenic we wrote in a caller story. In fact, the median database terms for hundreds of brand-name drugs roseate by 4% successful 2025 and successful 2026 frankincense far, according to the probe steadfast 46brooklyn.

Trump’s cause pricing strategy is based connected the conception of astir favored federation pricing. Under an MFN policy, a state bases its prices disconnected of those successful different countries.

So far, the Trump medication has made deals with 16 cause companies, securing commitments to connection selected brand-name drugs astatine discounted currency prices for radical not utilizing insurance. Companies person besides promised to motorboat caller drugs and connection drugs to Medicaid astatine MFN prices. In return, companies person gotten assorted benefits, including promised exemptions from tariffs and from aboriginal mandatory MFN policies.

TrumpRx, the national website designed to item the administration’s currency deals, launched connected Feb. 5 and truthful acold shows currency prices for 43 brand-name drugs from the archetypal 5 companies to marque deals with the administration.

However, experts antecedently told america that portion the tract does connection a fewer bully deals — for example, for radical taking fertility oregon value nonaccomplishment drugs that are often not covered by security — its interaction is limited.

“Manufacturers person agreed to discount prices connected immoderate drugs that are not good covered by security oregon already person generic competition, and that’s not nothing, but it’s not needfully going to assistance a batch of people, close present anyway,” Juliette Cubanski, lawman manager of the programme connected Medicare argumentation astatine KFF, told us. 

For astir people, security volition connection a amended deal, she said. And adjacent for radical paying for their drugs successful cash, astatine slightest 18 of the drugs connected TrumpRx are disposable arsenic generics for little prices elsewhere, an analysis from STAT found.

Trump claimed that the prices are present the lowest successful the world, but adjacent for the prime drugs connected TrumpRx, it’s not wide if that’s true. A spokesperson for the White House antecedently told america the medication was utilizing prices from different G7 nations arsenic comparators connected the tract but didn’t specify what prices were being compared. Cubanski told america that it’s hard to find whether the prices are the lowest internationally, arsenic countries whitethorn get rebates oregon discounts that are not disclosed.

Trump said helium was asking Congress to “codify” his MFN programme but his Great Healthcare Plan is light on specifics regarding the authorities helium is suggesting Congress should pass.

Investments

Trump repeated a regular talking point, saying, “In 12 months, I secured commitments for much than $18 trillion pouring successful from each implicit the globe.” That’s an unsubstantiated figure.

A White House website tallying specified promises puts the total astatine $9.6 trillion for “U.S. and Foreign Investments,” providing precise fewer details connected these agreements. But arsenic we’ve written before, adjacent that fig is shaky due to the fact that it includes pledges and planned investments that whitethorn not happen.

“[T]hey’re conscionable promises — and often vague ones astatine that,” Scott Lincicome, vice president of wide economics astatine the libertarian Cato Institute, said successful an April 2025 analysis erstwhile Trump began making specified claims.

In looking astatine the White House database successful May, we recovered that immoderate investments whitethorn not beryllium owed to Trump. A $500 cardinal artificial quality infrastructure project, for example, was reportedly successful the readying stages successful March 2024, good earlier the election. And some a labour national and a Democratic politician took recognition for the announced reopening of an car assembly works that besides was connected the Trump administration’s list.

Fentanyl Flow

Trump made the unsupported assertion that “the travel of deadly fentanyl crossed our borderline is down by a grounds 56% successful 1 year.”

Experts who survey cause travel and argumentation have told us before that it’s not imaginable to cognize however overmuch much oregon little of an illicit cause is getting into the U.S. That’s due to the fact that determination is nary broad information connected the full travel of drugs into the country, which includes drugs that person not been detected by authorities, arsenic the Congressional Research Service has reported.

“The champion happening that we person arsenic a gauge for what comes into the state is the seizure data,” and that “is not a metric of however overmuch is really coming into the U.S.,” Katharine Neill Harris, a chap successful cause argumentation astatine Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy, told america for an October 2024 story. “This is conscionable the information that’s coming done the borderline security,” she said, noting that this excludes drugs that are smuggled into the state different ways, specified arsenic by mail. 

Some usage the seizure information arsenic a proxy for however overmuch enters the state undetected, with much cause seizures suggesting that much drugs are coming into the state — oregon vice versa.

The magnitude of fentanyl seized by national borderline officers decreased by astir 49% successful the archetypal twelvemonth of Trump’s 2nd term, going from 21,075 pounds seized successful Biden’s past afloat 12 months successful bureau to 10,674 pounds seized successful Trump’s archetypal afloat 12 months, according to the astir caller Customs and Border Protection data. A White House spokesperson pointed to a CBP announcement successful September that said since Trump took bureau successful January, “fentanyl trafficking astatine the confederate borderline is down by 56% compared to the aforesaid play successful 2024.”

The fig of pounds seized has been connected the diminution since peaking successful fiscal twelvemonth 2023. The information that the seized magnitude has gone down could mean that little of the cause is being trafficked to the country, but it could mean that authorities are simply catching little of it. (The declining number of fentanyl overdose deaths since precocious 2023 suggests that it whitethorn beryllium the former.) 

But not having the fig for the full fentanyl travel to the U.S. makes it hard to cognize if the president’s assertion is accurate. “If you don’t cognize the denominator, you can’t person an answer,” David Luckey, manager of the RAND Rural America Partnership Initiative and prof of argumentation investigation astatine the RAND School of Public Policy, told us in 2024.

Gasoline Prices

Trump continued to making mendacious claims astir gasoline prices, saying: “Gasoline — which reached a highest of implicit $6 a gallon successful immoderate states nether my predecessor was, rather honestly, a catastrophe — is present beneath $2.30 a gallon successful astir states. And successful immoderate places, $1.99 a gallon. And erstwhile I visited the large authorities of Iowa conscionable a fewer weeks ago, I adjacent saw $1.85 a gallon for gasoline.”

As of Feb. 24, determination were nary U.S. states wherever the mean terms of a gallon of regular gasoline was beneath $2.30, according to authorities terms information from AAA. Oklahoma was the closest to that figure, with an mean terms of $2.37. That besides means determination are nary states with an mean terms beneath $2 per gallon. In Iowa, the authorities Trump mentioned, the mean terms statewide was $2.55, astatine the clip of his remarks.

Patrick De Haan, caput of petroleum investigation astatine GasBuddy, told america for a Feb. 19 story that, arsenic of Feb. 14, determination were “about 40 stations successful the federation with gasoline beneath $2/gal, which is what we’ve mostly seen connected a regular ground for February frankincense far.” In a Feb. 24 post connected Substack, helium wrote that, arsenic of that date, $2.69 was the “most communal terms being charged astatine stations nationwide.”

Nationwide, gasoline prices are astir 17 cents (or astir 5%) little than they were erstwhile Trump took office. As of the week ending Feb. 23, the mean terms successful the U.S. for a gallon of regular gasoline was astir $2.94, according to the Energy Information Administration. 

Eight Wars

Trump continued to marque his inflated assertion astir ending “eight wars.”

“My archetypal 10 months, I ended 8 wars, including Cambodia,” Trump said. “Cambodia and Thailand, Pakistan and India would person been a atomic war. Thirty-five cardinal people, said the premier curate of Pakistan, would person died if it were not for my involvement. Kosovo and Serbia, Israel and Iran, Egypt and Ethiopia, Armenia and Azerbaijan, the Congo and Rwanda. And, of course, the warfare successful Gaza, which proceeds astatine a precise debased level, it’s conscionable astir there.”

When his assertion was 7 wars past year, experts successful planetary relations told us that Trump played a important relation successful ending warring successful 4 of those conflicts — though the Indian government denied that the U.S. played a relation successful negotiating the ceasefire with Pakistan. Trump besides counts immoderate planetary disagreements that weren’t wars, arsenic good arsenic immoderate battles that haven’t ended.

Trump includes the much than two-year-long warfare betwixt Israel and Hamas arsenic the eighth war, arsenic the 2 sides agreed in October to a ceasefire and the instrumentality of hostages and prisoners. Many have said that Trump should get recognition for getting the woody done, including Biden’s erstwhile nationalist information adviser.

Steven A. Cook, elder chap for Middle East and Africa studies astatine the Council connected Foreign Relations, noted that implementing Trump’s 20-point bid statement comes with challenges. “Whether this leads to an extremity to the warfare remains an unfastened question,” Cook said.

We’d enactment that some Israel and Hamas have accused the different of violating the presumption of the ceasefire deal.

Religious Renewal

Trump claimed to person presided implicit a “tremendous renewal” of religion successful America, but caller polling has recovered the opposite.

A Gallup poll conducted successful November recovered that little than fractional of Americans reported that religion was an important portion of their regular lives, which is simply a 17 percent constituent diminution since 2015, the twelvemonth earlier Trump won his archetypal election.

“The steady diminution successful U.S. religiosity over the past decennary has been evident for years,” according to Gallup. “Fewer Americans place with a religion, religion attendance and rank are declining, and religion holds a little important relation successful people’s lives than it erstwhile did.”

That contradicts the president’s claim that “during my clip successful office, some the archetypal 4 years, and successful particular, this past year, determination has been a tremendous renewal successful religion, faith, Christianity and content successful God.”

Trump went connected to claim, “This is particularly existent among young people, and a large portion of that had to bash with my large friend, Charlie Kirk.”

A study released by the Pew Research Center successful December recovered that Americans person remained astir dependable successful whether oregon not they place arsenic spiritual since 2020, and that determination is nary surge successful spiritual content among the young.

“On average, young adults stay overmuch little spiritual than older Americans,” according to Pew. “Today’s young adults besides are little spiritual than young radical were a decennary ago. And determination is nary denotation that young men are converting to Christianity successful ample numbers,” arsenic had been suggested successful immoderate recent reporting.

Warrior Dividends

The president touted the alleged “warrior dividend” bonus checks that were sent to subject unit successful December.

“Every work subordinate precocious received a warrior dividend of $1,776,” Trump said, aboriginal adding, “we got the wealth from tariffs and different things.”

It’s true that astir 1.5 cardinal active-duty and reserve subject members received checks, but the wealth didn’t travel from tariffs.

Those bonuses were a reallocation of funds initially earmarked for an accrued Department of Defense lodging allowance, funded by a $2.9 billion appropriation successful the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.

Prisons, Mental Institutions, and 11,888 Murderers

During his address, Trump repeated — arsenic helium does successful virtually each code — his unsupported assertion that galore of the immigrants who came to the U.S. during the Biden medication “poured successful by the millions and millions, from prisons, from intelligence institutions” successful different countries. Trump has never provided any credible grounds of that.

Trump besides claimed that Biden’s migration policies allowed the introduction of “11,888 murderers.” He has been citing variations of this fig for much than a year. But as we’ve written, he’s referring to noncitizens convicted of execution who were not being detained by the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement. The list, known arsenic the agency’s non-detained docket, included 13,099 radical arsenic of July 21, 2024. The “vast majority” of them entered the state anterior to the Biden medication and had their custody presumption determined “long earlier this Administration,” the Department of Homeland Security said successful a 2024 statement, noting that galore were successful prison. Also, the noncitizens see those who entered the state legally, specified arsenic green-card holders.

Stock Market

Trump boasted, “The banal marketplace has acceptable 53 all-time grounds highs since the election. Think of that, 1 year. Boosting pensions, 401(k)s and status accounts for the millions and millions of Americans are each gaining. Everybody’s up, mode up.” The banal marketplace is up successful Trump’s archetypal year, but it’s down from the gains seen successful the past 2 years nether Biden.

Since Trump took office, the S&P 500 has risen 14.9% (that’s for the play betwixt the adjacent of the marketplace connected Jan. 17, 2025, the past concern time earlier the inauguration, and the adjacent of the marketplace connected the Feb. 24, 2026). Although Trump has said stocks acold outperformed Wall Street expectations, that’s lone a small amended than galore fiscal analysts forecast for 2025 conscionable earlier Trump took office.

As Yahoo! Finance wrote on Jan. 2, 2025, “The median year-end people for the S&P 500 among strategists tracked by Yahoo Finance sits astatine 6,600. This would correspond astir a 12% summation from the index’s existent level.”

Trump claimed the Dow Jones “broke 50,000 4 years up of schedule, and the S&P deed 7,000 wherever it wasn’t expected to bash it for galore years.”

The Dow Jones Industrial Average, made up of 30 ample corporations, reached 50,000 successful aboriginal February, but has since dropped a bit, and was astatine 49,174 astatine the adjacent of the marketplace connected Feb. 24.

Although Trump’s assertion whitethorn marque it look similar the banal marketplace rebounded since helium took office, the banal marketplace performed good successful Biden’s last 2 years successful bureau — with the S&P 500 rising implicit 20% each of those years — amended than the 13% summation Trump saw successful his archetypal year. As we wrote successful our story, “Biden’s Final Numbers,” the S&P grew by astir 58% implicit the entirety of Biden’s 4 years. The banal marketplace has been connected a bully semipermanent run, with the S&P rising astir 68% during Trump’s first 4 years in bureau and by 166% during the eight years under President Barack Obama earlier that.

We besides enactment that portion Trump said that “everybody’s up, mode up,” lone about 62% of Americans ain immoderate stock, according to a Gallup canvass successful 2025. Ownership of banal skews heavy to the affluent — 87% among those successful households earning astatine slightest $100,000. It was 28% among those successful households earning little than $50,000.

Tax Exemptions

“With the large Big Beautiful Bill, we gave you nary taxation connected tips, nary taxation connected overtime and nary taxation connected Social Security for our large seniors,” Trump said, recycling immoderate of his favourite abbreviated descriptors to picture the reconciliation measure helium signed into instrumentality successful July.

As we’ve noted before, the instrumentality boosted the fig of radical who don’t person to wage immoderate taxation connected their Social Security benefits done 2028, but does not destruct the taxation for each seniors since determination is simply a phase-out for those with higher incomes. 

According to the White House’s Council of Economic Advisers, 88% of Social Security recipients 65 years oregon older volition not wage immoderate taxation connected those benefits nether the law. That’s up from the 64% of elder recipients who already did not person to pay. (The instrumentality does not exempt individuals younger than 65 from having to wage taxes.)

The concern is akin with Trump’s claims of “no tax” connected overtime oregon tips, which are besides impermanent and person phase-outs arsenic income increases and different limitations. There is simply a maximum deduction of $25,000 for tips and $12,500 for overtime pay.

Voter Fraud

As helium has for years, Trump insisted, without evidence, that “cheating is rampant successful our elections.”

Trump urged Congress to walk the SAVE America Act, which would necessitate voters to supply documentary impervious of U.S. citizenship erstwhile registering to vote, and besides photograph recognition to ballot successful national elections. Under the current law, registrants indispensable attest that they are a national nether punishment of perjury, and noncitizens who vote risk deportation and being permanently inadmissible for instrumentality to the U.S. According to the National Conference of State Legislatures, 14 states and Washington, D.C., don’t necessitate recognition astatine the polls.

We’ve written a batch of articles about Trump’s false, misleading and unfounded claims astir fraud successful the 2020 predetermination (and different elections). We’ve also looked at the Trump campaign’s 2020 ineligible challenges, which lacked grounds of elector fraud and were astir universally dismissed by judges.

Trump’s ain Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency concluded that the 2020 predetermination “was the astir unafraid successful American history” and that determination was “no grounds that immoderate voting strategy deleted oregon mislaid votes, changed votes, oregon was successful immoderate mode compromised.” And William Barr, U.S. lawyer wide successful Trump’s archetypal term, told a House committee successful grounds released June 13, 2022: “In my sentiment then, and my sentiment now, is that the predetermination was not stolen by fraud.” Barr told the committee the predetermination fraud communicative the Trump run was “shoveling retired to the nationalist … was bullshit.”

Trump said the SAVE America Act was needed “to halt amerciable aliens and others — they’re unpermitted persons — from voting successful our ineffable American elections.” He called that benignant of amerciable voting “rampant” successful American elections. But that’s not what was recovered erstwhile galore states utilized a programme called the Systematic Alien Verification for Entitlements, oregon SAVE, to cheque the citizenship presumption of radical connected the elector rolls successful galore states.

According to the New York Times, of the 49.5 cardinal elector registrations checked, the Department of Homeland Security referred astir 10,000 cases to investigators. As the Times noted, that’s astir 0.02% of registrations that were flagged arsenic perchance being noncitizens. But adjacent that fig is inflated. The Times recovered that erstwhile respective counties began looking into those connected the elector rolls who were marked arsenic perchance noncitizens, it turned retired that lone a fraction of them were. Moreover, determination was nary denotation of however galore of those who whitethorn person improperly registered to ballot really voted.

A spokesperson for the Trump medication noted that astir of the states utilizing the verification programme are Republican-led states, and that the programme mightiness place much noncitizens if it were embraced by Democratic-led states, galore of which person little strict elector ID laws.

A systematic reappraisal and analysis of claims astir noncitizen registrants and voters successful each 50 states by the nonprofit Center for Election Innovation and Research, updated successful February, recovered that “sweeping allegations astir noncitizen registrations oregon voting look to originate from misunderstandings, mischaracterizations, oregon outright fabrications astir analyzable elector data. In each examined case, erstwhile claims astir ample numbers of noncitizens connected voting rolls are taxable to scrutiny and decently investigated, the fig of alleged instances falls drastically.”

Trump besides criticized mail-in ballots, calling them “crooked,” and saying they should lone beryllium allowed, “for illness, disability, subject oregon travel.”

Mail-in voting is wide utilized astir the country. Eight states and Washington, D.C., behaviour their elections mostly by mail, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures. Another 28 states connection “no excuse” mail-in voting, meaning that immoderate elector tin petition a mail-in ballot without needing to supply a reason. As we person written, experts have told us that elector fraud via mail-in ballots is rare, though much communal than in-person voting fraud.

Balancing the Budget

Trump made the dubious assertion that the national fund tin beryllium balanced by eliminating fraudulent spending.

“I americium officially announcing the warfare connected fraud to beryllium led by our large Vice President JD Vance,” helium said. “We’ll get it done, and if we’re capable to find capable of that fraud, we volition really person a balanced fund overnight. It’ll spell precise quickly.”

In a 2024 report, the Government Accountability Office estimated that the full national authorities “could suffer betwixt $233 cardinal and $521 cardinal annually to fraud.” But the national fund shortage for fiscal twelvemonth 2025, which ended connected Sept. 30, was astir $1.8 trillion, and the Congressional Budget Office projected successful its February fund outlook that the shortage volition beryllium $1.9 trillion for fiscal twelvemonth 2026 and emergence to $2 trillion oregon much successful 2028 and consequent fiscal years.

Crime

Trump claimed that helium inherited “rampant transgression astatine home” and aboriginal boasted “last year, the execution complaint saw its azygous largest diminution successful recorded history. This is the biggest decline, deliberation of it, successful recorded history, the lowest fig successful implicit 125 years.”

Crime information amusement that convulsive transgression continued to diminution successful 2025, but the inclination began successful 2022 aft a spike successful crime, peculiarly murders, successful 2020 — the twelvemonth the pandemic began and the past twelvemonth of Trump’s archetypal term. Trump is close successful touting the bully quality that convulsive transgression continues to fall, but helium wrongly paints this arsenic a stark turnaround from erstwhile helium took office.

U.S. convulsive transgression rate peaked in the aboriginal 1990s and has mostly declined since, adjacent with the bump up successful 2020. The complaint dropped by 33.2 percent points nether Biden and was little than fractional the 1990s highest successful 2024, the twelvemonth earlier Trump took office, according to estimates from the FBI, which relies connected voluntary reports from instrumentality enforcement agencies nationwide. The fig and complaint of murders besides declined since 2020.

In 2024, Trump claimed specified transgression information amounted to “fake numbers.” But present that he’s successful office, and the driblet successful transgression continues, helium has embraced those numbers.

Full-year nationwide information from the FBI won’t beryllium released until aboriginal this year, but, arsenic we reported past month, different groups that aggregate transgression information reported by instrumentality enforcement agencies crossed the state amusement convulsive crime, including murder, went down again successful 2025. Trump has highlighted a report by the Council connected Criminal Justice that recovered a 21% diminution successful the homicide complaint from 2024 to 2025 successful 35 cities.

CCJ reported, “When nationwide information for jurisdictions of each sizes is reported by the FBI aboriginal this year, determination is simply a beardown anticipation that homicides successful 2025 volition driblet to astir 4.0 per 100,000 residents. That would beryllium the lowest complaint ever recorded successful instrumentality enforcement oregon nationalist wellness information going backmost to 1900, and would people the largest single-year percent driblet successful the homicide complaint connected record.”

The nationwide homicide complaint was 5 per 100,000 successful 2024.

Trump has attributed the transgression driblet to his policies of sending national instrumentality enforcement, including the National Guard oregon migration officers, into cities, arsenic helium mentioned repeatedly successful the NBC News interview. But transgression experts accidental specified claims request robust research. “Without rigorous evidence, it is not imaginable to confidently pinpoint the factors fueling the driblet successful homicide,” the CCJ study said. “Any assertive claims astir the power of circumstantial argumentation interventions, specified arsenic National Guard deployments and accrued migration enforcement oregon expanded assemblage unit involution programs, should beryllium supported by robust probe designs intended to measurement their causal effects.”

Tariffs to Replace Income Tax?

Trump repeated a dubious assertion he’s made respective times earlier — and we’ve written astir twice — regarding the quality of his accrued tariffs to regenerate income taxes.

“I judge the tariffs paid for by overseas countries will, similar successful the past, substantially regenerate the modern time strategy of income tax, taking a large fiscal load disconnected the radical that I love,” the president said.

But, arsenic we’ve explained, there’s a wide borderline betwixt the revenues raised from idiosyncratic income taxes versus those raised from tariffs.

For example, the national authorities brought successful a full of $560 cardinal successful January, according to the Treasury’s astir caller monthly report. More than fractional of that gross came from idiosyncratic income taxes, portion conscionable 5% came from tariffs.

“It is virtually intolerable for tariffs to afloat regenerate income taxes,” Kimberly Clausing and Maurice Obstfeld, economists with the Peterson Institute for International Economics, wrote in 2024. “Tariff rates would person to beryllium implausibly precocious connected specified a tiny basal of imports to regenerate the income tax, and arsenic taxation rates rose, the basal itself would shrink arsenic imports fall, making Trump’s $2 trillion extremity unattainable.”

Replacing the income taxation with higher tariffs would origin occupation losses, higher inflation, larger national deficits and a recession, Clausing and Obstfeld said.

“It would besides displacement the taxation load distant from the good off, substantially expanding the taxation load connected the mediocre and mediate class,” they argued.

Many economists besides accidental Trump is incorrect to accidental tariffs are “paid for by overseas countries.” A Federal Reserve Bank of New York analysis published connected Feb. 12 concluded that “nearly 90 percent of the tariffs’ economical load fell connected U.S. firms and consumers.”

White House economical advisor Kevin Hassett blasted the study arsenic an “embarrassment,” saying, “It’s, I think, the worst insubstantial I’ve ever seen successful the past of the Federal Reserve system.” Hassett claimed the authors “put retired a decision which has created a batch of quality that’s highly partisan based connected investigation that wouldn’t beryllium accepted successful a first-semester econ class.”

But the New York Fed is hardly alone successful holding that position. A working paper revised successful February from Harvard University prof and erstwhile International Monetary Fund economist Gita Gopinath and Brent Neiman of the University of Chicago for the National Bureau of Economic Research concluded that “tariff pass-through to U.S. import prices is astir 100 percent, truthful the United States is bearing a ample stock of the costs.”

Iran’s Nuclear Program

Trump said that past year, the U.S. “obliterated Iran’s atomic weapons program” and “wiped it out.” But experts told us astatine the clip that the June bombing of Iranian atomic facilities damaged the country’s atomic capabilities but that they were not “obliterated.” A preliminary classified quality assessment, described by CNN and the New York Times, said that Iran’s atomic programme had been acceptable backmost by conscionable a fewer months.

Indeed, Iran’s atomic programme continues. On Feb. 21, peculiar envoy Steve Witkoff told Fox News that Iran is “probably a week distant from having industrial-grade bomb-making material.” Meanwhile, the U.S. has been amassing warships and warplanes successful the Middle East, and Trump has threatened subject enactment against Iran. There will be further talks betwixt the U.S. and Iran astir the Iranian atomic programme connected Feb. 26.

Medicaid

“We volition ever support Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid,” Trump insisted, astir a 3rd of the mode done his speech.

To partially wage for the taxation cuts successful Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act, Republicans chopped much than $990 cardinal in spending on Medicaid, the federal-state wellness attraction programme for radical who person debased incomes oregon disabilities. The instrumentality has galore Medicaid-related provisions, but a large mode spending was brought down was by modifying Medicaid eligibility requirements and introducing caller enactment requirements. With less radical connected Medicaid, the programme costs less.

Republicans have previously argued that Medicaid remains disposable and has not changed, but the Congressional Budget Office estimated that Medicaid-related changes successful the instrumentality would effect successful 7.5 cardinal less Americans having wellness security successful 2034. A overmuch smaller fig of radical — 100,000 — would suffer sum successful a decennary arsenic a effect of changes to Medicare nether the law, CBO said. Another 2.1 cardinal were estimated to suffer sum arsenic a effect of changes to the Affordable Care Act marketplaces.

Oil and Gas Production

Trump exaggerated the summation successful U.S. lipid accumulation and gave himself excessively overmuch recognition for the country’s grounds output of earthy gas.

“American lipid accumulation is up by much than 600,000 barrels a day, and we conscionable received, from our caller person and partner, Venezuela, much than 80 cardinal barrels of oil,” helium said. “American earthy state accumulation is astatine an all-time precocious due to the fact that I kept my committedness to drill, baby, drill.”

As of November, U.S. crude lipid accumulation had accrued to an mean of much than 13.6 cardinal barrels per time successful Trump’s archetypal afloat 10 months successful the White House, according to the astir caller information from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. That’s up astir 2.5%, oregon 334,600 barrels per day, from little than 13.3 cardinal barrels per time during the aforesaid play successful 2024. 

Before Trump was inaugurated, and earlier immoderate of his policies were successful place, the EIA had already projected successful its January Short-Term Energy Outlook that mean regular accumulation would summation to a 13.5 cardinal barrels a time successful 2025 — up from the erstwhile grounds of 13.2 million barrels per time successful 2024.

Meanwhile, done November, accumulation of adust earthy state had accrued to an mean of astir 3.3 trillion cubic feet per period successful Trump’s archetypal afloat 10 months successful the White House, according to EIA data. That’s up astir 4.2% from much than 3.1 trillion cubic feet produced per period during the aforesaid play successful 2024, which was already a grounds twelvemonth for earthy state accumulation successful the country, the EIA said.

Correction, Feb. 25: We person corrected Trump’s punctuation astir the terms of gasoline. He said gasoline is “now beneath $2.30 a gallon successful astir states,” not $2.36.

Clarification, Feb. 25: We edited the summary to marque wide that the yearly ostentation complaint was 3% erstwhile Trump took bureau successful January 2025, not 9.1%.

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The station FactChecking Trump’s State of the Union Address appeared archetypal connected FactCheck.org.