Assessing Trump’s Claims on Iran’s Nuclear and Missile Capabilities

In discussing his reasoning for launching U.S. airstrikes connected Iran, President Donald Trump said, “An Iranian authorities equipped with long-range missiles and atomic weapons would beryllium a dire menace to each American.” But arms power experts person disputed his assertion that Iran “soon” could person missiles susceptible of reaching the U.S., and they accidental there’s a deficiency of grounds that the state “attempted to rebuild” atomic enrichment facilities damaged by U.S. strikes past year.

Trump archetypal made his lawsuit for the U.S. and Israeli subject bombing, which started connected Feb. 28, successful 2 videos that day and the next. In his archetypal remarks, helium said, “Our nonsubjective is to support the American radical by eliminating imminent threats from the Iranian regime, a vicious radical of precise hard, unspeakable people. Its menacing activities straight endanger the United States, our troops, our bases overseas, and our allies passim the world.” He specifically focused connected stopping Iran from having a atomic weapon.

“It has ever been the argumentation of the United States, successful particular, my administration, that this violent authorities tin ne'er person a atomic weapon. I’ll accidental it again. They tin ne'er person a atomic weapon,” Trump said. The White House connected March 2 sent retired a database of 74 times Trump has said thing similar, saying successful the property release, “This presumption — rooted successful longstanding, bipartisan American argumentation — guides his actions to guarantee the starring authorities sponsor of coercion cannot endanger the satellite with atomic devastation.”

A twelvemonth ago, successful precocious March 2025, the U.S. Intelligence Community assessed that “Iran is not gathering a atomic limb and that [Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali] Khamenei has not reauthorized the atomic weapons programme helium suspended successful 2003.” However, successful a legislature proceeding astir that assessment, Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard also said, “Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile is astatine its highest levels and is unprecedented for a authorities without atomic weapons.”

Last June, Trump said helium believed Iran was “very close” to obtaining a atomic weapon, an evident contradiction to the IC assessment. Days later, the U.S. bombed 3 Iranian atomic facilities. In his Feb. 28 remarks, Trump repeated his assertion that those subject strikes had “obliterated the regime’s atomic program” astatine those sites. (As we’ve written, experts and a classified U.S. quality study said the sites were damaged and the enrichment programme acceptable backmost — but the sites and atomic capabilities weren’t wholly destroyed.) Trump said that Iran refused to marque a woody aft the June bombings and refused to “renounce their atomic ambitions, and we can’t instrumentality it anymore.”

“Instead, they attempted to rebuild their atomic programme and to proceed processing long-range missiles that tin present endanger our precise bully friends and allies successful Europe, our troops stationed overseas, and could soon scope the American homeland,” the president said.

We’ll explicate what arms power experts accidental astir Iran’s long-range rocket capabilities and the authorities of its damaged atomic enrichment program.

Nuclear Program

In his Feb. 28 comments, Trump said the U.S. “will guarantee that Iran does not get a atomic weapon” and that aft the June 2025 U.S. bombing of Iranian atomic facilities, “they attempted to rebuild their atomic program.” Arms power experts told america that past year’s bombing acceptable backmost Iran’s atomic programme and there’s a deficiency of grounds that the state was rebuilding it.

“In the lack of IAEA monitoring, close accusation is scant,” Emma Sandifer, programme coordinator astatine the nonpartisan Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation, told america successful an email, referring to the International Atomic Energy Agency. The IAEA hasn’t been capable to measure the 3 bombed atomic programme sites, though it has inspected each different declared atomic facilities successful the country, the IAEA main told Reuters successful January.

“These actions are right,” Trump said successful his March 1 video statement, “and they are indispensable to guarantee that Americans volition ne'er person to look a radical, bloodthirsty violent authorities equipped with atomic weapons and tons of threats.”

A week earlier the caller subject operation, connected Feb. 21, Trump’s peculiar envoy to the Middle East, Steve Witkoff, was much definitive successful describing a clip framework for Iran’s atomic ambitions. Witkoff said successful a Fox News interrogation that portion Iran says that its atomic capableness is “about their civilian programme … they’ve been enriching good beyond the fig that you request for civilian nuclear. It’s up to 60%. They are astir apt a week distant from having industrial-grade bomb-making material, and that’s truly dangerous.” But experts told america it would apt instrumentality months for Iran to enrich uranium to that level and past overmuch longer earlier the “bomb-making material” could beryllium made into a weapon.

Daryl G. Kimball, enforcement manager of the Arms Control Association, a nonpartisan enactment that provides investigation connected arms power and nationalist information issues, told america that “it is wide that it would instrumentality Iran years to afloat rebuild its enrichment plants” that were bombed successful June 2025. “It is imaginable that Iran whitethorn person a precise tiny fig of operational centrifuges determination undisclosed,” Kimball said. “But it would inactive instrumentality months for a smaller fig of centrifuges to execute what thousands of centrifuges astatine these large facilities could’ve done,” which would beryllium to enrich tiny amounts of uranium to weapons-grade level and past crook it into metallic to beryllium utilized for a weapon. “It would instrumentality longer to manner a atomic explosive device.”

Eliana Johns, a elder probe subordinate with the atomic accusation task astatine the Federation of American Scientists told america that “if Iran enriches uranium to weapons-grade, they volition request to weaponize the worldly and make a atomic instrumentality with different delicate components. It’s comparatively casual to enactment assorted payloads connected a missile; however, portion Iran surely has ballistic missiles that could theoretically beryllium utilized for this purpose, determination are inactive challenges with designing a atomic instrumentality that tin beryllium mated with the intended missile, volition detonate erstwhile desired, past reentry, and get accurately astatine its target.”

As we’ve reported before, the “breakout time” — a word that refers to the clip Iran would need, if it chose to bash so, to nutrient weapons-grade uranium that could past beryllium utilized for 1 weaponry — had been astir a week oregon truthful for astatine slightest the past fewer years. However, “‘breakout time’ is often misleading,” Sandifer said. “While the clip it whitethorn person taken Iran to enrich capable weapons-grade uranium for a atomic limb whitethorn person erstwhile been a substance of weeks, that is lone 1 portion of the puzzle. After this point, erstwhile you person the weapons-grade uranium, Iran would past request to manufacture the remainder of the weapon. This process would apt instrumentality overmuch longer, possibly months to a year.”

She said that estimating this clip is difficult, since the IAEA hasn’t been capable to measure Iran’s operations since the June 2025 airstrikes. “Regardless, the harm to Iran’s atomic weapons program, nevertheless severe, apt lengthened immoderate ‘breakout time’ whether it relates to Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium oregon the manufacturing of a atomic weapon.”

Kimball said that past year’s bombings “severely damaged Iran’s large uranium enrichment facilities, but not its resoluteness to clasp a atomic programme oregon its atomic know-how. Nor did the cognition region oregon assistance relationship for 400 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60 percent U-235 that Iran already had stockpiled, and that the IAEA reported this week is buried [at] Iran’s atomic analyzable adjacent Isfahan.”

To beryllium weapons-grade, the uranium would request to beryllium enriched to 90%. Isfahan is 1 of the sites deed successful the June strikes, but, again, the IAEA hasn’t had access to the tract successful bid to relationship for the 60% enriched material.

As for Trump’s connection that Iran “attempted to rebuild their atomic program” aft past year’s airstrikes, Kimball and Sandifer said determination wasn’t grounds of that. “There is nary grounds from the IAEA, from autarkic investigation of commercialized outer imagery, nor immoderate grounds presented to Congress from the U.S. quality Community that Iran was rebuilding the damaged atomic facilities and preparing to restart enrichment operations,” Kimball said.

Sandifer said that satellite images successful January “showed repair enactment astatine 2 of the Iranian atomic sites bombed successful June of 2025, the Natanz and Isfahan facilities. However, determination is simply a deficiency of grounds that Iran had taken steps toward rebuilding its atomic programme beyond these repairs. Some experts judge that this enactment was not a motion of reconstruction but an appraisal of the harm to cardinal assets.”

Other experts likewise person said there’s not grounds of Iran restarting a atomic enrichment program. “There’s a wide decision contiguous that there’s a de facto suspension of enrichment,” Robert Einhorn, a elder chap successful the arms power and non-proliferation inaugural astatine the Brookings Institution deliberation vessel and a erstwhile State Department authoritative during the Obama administration, told the Wall Street Journal. “There’s nary enrichment taking place.”

Before the June 2025 bombings, a May 31, 2025, study from the IAEA said it “has nary credible indications of an ongoing, undeclared structured atomic programme” to make atomic weapons successful Iran, and it noted precocious officials successful the state person said that utilizing atomic weapons was “incompatible with Islamic Law.” But the IAEA said it had concerns astir “repeated statements by erstwhile high-level officials successful Iran related to Iran having each capabilities to manufacture atomic weapons.”

The bureau said, “[T]he information that Iran is the lone non-nuclear-weapon State successful the satellite that is producing and accumulating uranium enriched to 60% remains a substance of superior concern, which has drawn planetary attraction fixed the imaginable proliferation implications.”

In Trump’s Feb. 28 remarks, helium spoke mostly of “eliminating imminent threats from the Iranian regime.”

Kimball told america that “[w]hile Iran’s atomic programme remains a medium- to semipermanent proliferation risk, determination was and is nary imminent Iranian atomic threat; Iran is not adjacent to ‘weaponizing’ its atomic worldly truthful arsenic to warrant breaking disconnected negotiations and launching the U.S.-Israeli attack.”

Speaking successful the White House connected March 3, Trump said of the U.S. subject strikes: “If we didn’t bash what we’re doing close now, you would person had a atomic war, and they [Iran] would person taken retired galore countries.”

Missiles Capable of Reaching U.S.?

In his State of the Union code on Feb. 24, Trump said Iran was “working to physique missiles that volition soon scope the United States of America.”

While “soon” is simply a subjective term, experts accidental the menace of Iran processing an intercontinental ballistic rocket susceptible of reaching the mainland of the United States was not peculiarly imminent. One adept enactment the clip framework astatine respective years, portion others person said it would instrumentality Iran a decennary oregon much to make a functioning ICBM.

“Iran’s rocket arsenal remains 1 of the pillars of its information strategy,” Sandifer, of the Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation, told us. “However, determination is small grounds that Iran could physique missiles that scope the United States successful the adjacent future. Recent estimates determined that not lone does Iran person nary intercontinental ballistic rocket capability, but the state appears to person maintained its self-imposed rocket scope bounds of 2,000 km.”

Rosemary Kelanic, manager of the Middle East programme astatine Defense Priorities, a Washington-based deliberation vessel advocating restraint successful U.S. overseas policy, said Iran presently lacks the technological quality to physique an effectual ICBM.

“If you’re gathering an ICBM, there’s tons of method details down it, but broadly speaking, you’ve got to beryllium capable to sprout thing retired of the ambiance into debased Earth orbit,” Kelanic told america successful a telephone interview. “Then you request to beryllium capable to person it reenter the ambiance and not pain up connected reentry, which is simply a antithetic level of technological difficulty. There’s nary grounds Iran tin bash that yet. And past you besides person to beryllium capable to enactment a warhead connected it … and the added trouble that you request to miniaturize the warhead, to enactment it connected a rocket that would beryllium susceptible of shooting that acold retired of the ambiance and past coming backmost successful and not burning up connected reentry. Then you besides person to bash guidance systems to marque definite it lands successful the close place. And there’s nary grounds that Iran tin bash that either.”

In summation to the State of the Union speech, Trump has connected two different occasions this past week said that Iran is processing long-range missiles that could “soon” scope the U.S.

A time aft the State of the Union address, Secretary of State Marco Rubio was much circumspect erstwhile a newsman asked however acold distant Iran was from achieving the improvement of missiles that could scope the U.S.

“I won’t speculate arsenic to however acold distant they are, but they are surely trying to execute – and this is not caller — they are trying to execute intercontinental ballistic missiles,” Rubio said. “For example, you’ve seen them effort to motorboat satellites into space. You’ve seen them expanding the scope of the missiles they person now, and intelligibly they are headed successful the pathway to 1 time being capable to make weapons that could scope the continental U.S. They already person weapons that could scope overmuch of Europe — already now, arsenic we speak. And the ranges proceed to turn each azygous twelvemonth exponentially, which is astonishing to me. For a state that’s facing sanctions, whose economy’s successful tatters, whose radical are suffering – and someway they inactive find the wealth to put successful missiles of greater and greater capableness each year. This is an unsustainable threat.”

Several Democrats pushed backmost connected the thought that Iran would “soon” beryllium capable to scope the continental U.S. with missiles.

“There was nary mode that immoderate Iranian ballistic rocket tin deed the U.S. mainland,” Democratic Sen. Ruben Gallego said connected CNN connected March 1. “That is conscionable wholly false.”

“All of the quality I’ve seen successful 13 years connected the Armed Services and Foreign Relations Committees archer maine determination is nary imminent menace from Iran that justifies sending our sons and daughters into war,” Democratic Sen. Tim Kaine said connected Fox News. “The rocket contented is important. The quality suggests that Iran mightiness person missiles that could scope the United States wrong a decade. There was thing imminent astir this.”

Kaine was referring to a Defense Intelligence Agency report released past May that stated, “Iran has abstraction motorboat vehicles it could usage to make a militarily-viable ICBM by 2035 should Tehran determine to prosecute the capability.” The report, which assessed rocket threats that mightiness beryllium faced by a Trump-proposed “Golden Dome” rocket defence shield, projected Iran could person 60 ICBMs by 2035.

“So basically, the U.S. quality agencies person said that Iran would request 10 years to physique ICBMs susceptible of hitting the United States militarily if they chose to bash so,” Kelanic said. “And it did not needfully accidental that determination was grounds that Iran had chosen to bash so. … To me, that doesn’t registry arsenic soon.”

“Concern astir the improvement of long-range missiles by Iran is not thing new,” Kimball of the Arms Control Association told america successful an email. “The United States is 10,000 km distant from Iran. The longest scope of a deployed Iranian ballistic rocket is 2000 km.”

Kimball noted that the 10-year model has been the quality estimation for astir 3 decades now.

“A 1999 U.S. National Intelligence estimation predicted that the United States would astir apt look an ICBM menace from Iran by 2015. It is present 2026,” Kimball said.

Kimball said that the 2025 DIA appraisal not lone forecast it would instrumentality a decennary for Iran to make a ballistic rocket susceptible of hitting the U.S., but that “Iran would request to marque a determined propulsion to execute those capabilities connected that timeline,” helium said. “A decennary oregon much is not ‘soon.’” 

In several posts connected X connected Feb. 25, however, Jeffrey Lewis, an adept connected planetary information astatine Middlebury College, warned that galore were misreading the discourse of the Defense Intelligence Agency report.

“The question wasn’t ‘When volition Iran person an ICBM’, it was ‘What volition the menace situation look similar successful 2035 erstwhile Golden Dome is to beryllium afloat operational,'” Lewis wrote. “In different words, it isn’t ‘How soon tin my person person a baby?’ Instead, the question is ‘In 2035, however galore children volition my person have?’ It’s casual to accidental your person could person a kid wrong 10 years and that you expect she mightiness person three.”

A March 2 article successful the Wall Street Journal reported that Lewis “said that adjacent if Tehran wanted to prosecute gathering the weapons, it would apt instrumentality 2 to 3 years astatine slightest to physique a azygous rocket based connected the past of however different nations developed akin missiles.”

“US officials person been saying since the precocious 1990s that Iran is simply a small implicit a decennary distant from processing an ICBM and is pursuing that capability,” the Federation of American Scientists’ Johns told us. “However, gathering an ICBM susceptible of accurately striking the US mainland would necessitate overcoming important method hurdles with propulsion, guidance, and reentry, among different things. And determination is small grounds to bespeak that Iran has this capableness oregon intends to prosecute it. Given the deficiency of publically disposable and verifiable information, the DIA’s appraisal and the statements by the medication are hard to evaluate, particularly regarding what timeline Iran could make and deploy these longer-range missiles. It is besides worthy noting that parts of Eastern Europe person technically been wrong scope of Iranian missiles for years.”

In an interrogation with India Today TV released connected Feb. 25, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi denied that Iran was processing ICBMs, Reuters reported.

“We are not processing agelong scope missiles. We person constricted scope to beneath 2000 kilometers intentionally,” helium said. “We don’t privation it to beryllium a planetary threat. We lone person (them) to support ourselves. Our missiles physique deterrence.”

On March 2, Rubio spoke astir destroying Iran’s short-range ballistic missiles arsenic the nonsubjective of the U.S. subject operation. “This cognition needed to hap due to the fact that Iran, successful astir a twelvemonth oregon a twelvemonth and a half, would transverse the enactment of immunity, meaning they would person truthful galore short-range missiles, truthful galore drones, that nary 1 could bash thing astir it, due to the fact that they could clasp the full satellite hostage,” helium said. 

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