Why Kamala Harris could run for California governor and bypass another White House bid

LOS ANGELES – Many of Kamala Harris’ supporters and detractors alike deliberation she'd person amended likelihood moving for California politician alternatively than president a 3rd time.

There are respective reasons for Harris to marque a bid to regenerate term-limited Gov. Gavin Newsom. She would instantly go the aboriginal front-runner alternatively of entering a statesmanlike superior with a twelve oregon much superior contenders. No different campaigner successful California could lucifer her résumé of having served arsenic San Francisco territory attorney, authorities lawyer general, U.S. legislator and vice president.

Beyond being expected to marque a determination by the extremity of summer, Harris said small astir her future. She told a assemblage successful Orange County successful April: “I’ll spot you retired there. I’m not going anywhere.”

Newsom has predicted that Harris would apical the tract successful a contested superior but added, “if she runs.”

To tally for governor, “you person to person a burning ‘Why?’ ” Newsom said connected the “Next Up with Mark Halperin” podcast.

“And if you can’t enunciate that, the reply is ‘No,’” Newsom added. “Why the hellhole would you privation this job?”

Here are immoderate reasons wherefore she mightiness privation it — and wherefore she mightiness not. Her bureau did not respond to requests for remark for this story.

Pro: She tin skip a fractious 2028 primary

Harris would person to person nationalist Democrats that she's the look of the party’s future, contempt losing to President Donald Trump past fall. She's besides tied to erstwhile President Joe Biden, whom Democrats are progressively criticizing arsenic caller books thrust further treatment astir his property and carnal and intelligence readiness during his clip successful office.

The 2028 statesmanlike contention is expected to pull a ample field, apt to see Newsom. Any campaigner volition person to unify a fractious Democratic Party with debased support ratings and struggling to dilatory Trump’s docket successful Washington.

Democratic advisor Bill Burton, who was nationalist property caput for erstwhile President Barack Obama’s 2008 campaign, said Harris would participate a statesmanlike superior with a proven fundraising network, beardown designation with voters and the acquisition of operating successful a Trump-fueled media environment.

But the looming question for Democrats is apt to be, “Who is the champion idiosyncratic to basal up to the MAGA question and grounds a spot that is going to request to beryllium truly formidable?” Burton said.

Could Harris marque that case? Some deliberation her clip has passed.

“She’s had her chance,” Adam Green, co-founder of the Progressive Change Campaign Committee, said successful a statement.

“Voters privation authentic outsiders who volition shingle up our breached governmental strategy and situation an economical presumption quo rigged for billionaires against moving people," Green added. “That’s wherefore Kamala Harris lost, and it’s wherefore Democrats indispensable crook elsewhere for leadership.”

Pro: California politician mightiness beryllium a safer bet

Harris calls herself a arrogant girl of California, and aft serving arsenic vice president and successful the Senate, she doesn’t request to pursuit different title. That said, California is 1 of the world’s largest economies by itself, and its politician becomes, by default, a nationalist figure.

She would astir apt tally arsenic a proven manus with the acquisition to pb California’s tussles with Trump — the authorities is known arsenic the epicenter of the alleged Trump absorption — portion dealing with its galore problems, among them homelessness and a punishing outgo of living.

In her San Francisco speech past month, she said the federation was witnessing a “wholesale abandonment” of American ideals nether Trump.

The contention to regenerate Newsom successful California is crowded, with starring candidates including erstwhile U.S. Rep. Katie Porter, erstwhile Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa and erstwhile Biden medication wellness caput Xavier Becerra.

It’s expected that astatine slightest immoderate of her rival Democrats would bow retired alternatively than vie against her, including Porter, who successful 2012 was appointed by then-attorney wide Harris to beryllium the state’s autarkic slope show successful a multibillion-dollar nationwide owe settlement.

Democratic advisor Roger Salazar, who was a delegate successful the party’s 2024 statesmanlike convention, said Harris would basal amended likelihood successful a contention for politician successful her location state.

With aggregate predetermination wins successful California, “there is conscionable much certainty,” Salazar said. “I deliberation she’s got a limb up close now, but this contention hasn’t solidified” with the superior much than a twelvemonth away.

Con: Will voters invited her back?

How volition voters presumption her? As a favourite girl of California returning home? Or a two-time statesmanlike also-ran looking for a brushed landing?

Republican advisor Kevin Madden, who was a elder advisor to Mitt Romney’s statesmanlike campaigns successful 2008 and 2012, was dubious astir her chances successful either race. It's antithetic for a campaigner to seizure the presidency aft 2 losses — Biden was 1 example.

As for governor, “the California electorate is astir arsenic perfect arsenic it gets for Harris, but thing astir her existent electoral grounds indicates that superior oregon wide predetermination candidates should beryllium frightened off,” Madden added.

Con: She won't needfully tally against a Republican successful November

Unlike galore different states, California doesn't automatically beforehand a Democrat and a Republican to the November election.

The state’s unfastened superior strategy has tormented galore candidates — critics telephone it the “jungle primary.” All candidates look connected a azygous ballot, careless of party, and the apical 2 vote-getters beforehand to the wide election.

The strategy tin pb to strategical gambles. Last year’s U.S. Senate contention included 3 salient Democrats — U.S. Reps. Adam Schiff, Porter and Barbara Lee. Schiff ran TV ads successful the superior that spotlighted Republican Steve Garvey, presumably a weaker contender successful the wide predetermination than either of his Democratic rivals. Garvey ended up advancing to November, wherever helium was soundly defeated by Schiff, who present holds the seat.

But Harris could travel retired of the June 2, 2026, superior facing a Democrat who ends up criticizing her successful overmuch the aforesaid mode she'd person faced successful a 2028 bid.

San Francisco-based Democratic advisor Eric Jaye recalled different Californian who, aft losing a statesmanlike race, sought to rebound successful his location state: Richard Nixon. After being narrowly defeated successful the 1960 predetermination by then-Sen. John F. Kennedy, Nixon mislaid the 1962 contention for California governor. (Of course, Nixon ended up winning the White House six years later.)

While Harris is simply a favourite with Democrats, a portion of the electorate has profoundly antagonistic views of her, Jaye noted. That doesn’t permission her with galore voters to gain, and the Democratic superior ballot could beryllium divided among aggregate candidates.

“I don’t deliberation it’s successful immoderate mode guaranteed that she would win,” Jaye said. “She’s a highly polarizing figure.”

Con: Does she privation to spell to Sacramento?

Harris would beryllium coming location to a agelong database of problems.

The stateless situation is playing out regular connected the streets of Los Angeles and different large cities. Newsom this period said the authorities is facing a $12 cardinal shortage and helium wants to frost enrollment successful a state-funded wellness attraction programme for immigrants surviving successful California without ineligible status. There is simply a location security situation and a continuing menace from destructive wildfires.

And arsenic the past predetermination made clear, Republicans volition effort to saddle her — reasonably oregon not — with her location state’s estimation for confiscatory taxes, state prices and inferior bills, seven-figure location prices and wide societal policies.

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