What states could try to redistrict and add more GOP seats

Louisiana's Secretary of State connected Thursday announced the authorities would suspend the May 16 House primaries successful the aftermath of the U.S. Supreme Court striking down the state's legislature representation 1 time earlier. 

The Supreme Court's ruling connected Wednesday astir Louisiana's legislature representation could person implications for respective confederate states, arsenic it weakened the applicable conception of the Voting Rights Act astir majority-minority districts. 

In a cleanable satellite for Republicans, galore confederate states could redraw their maps, withstand ineligible challenges and collectively adhd betwixt 1 to 9 much GOP-friendly districts for the 2026 midterms, according to a CBS News analysis. That fig is expected to turn for the 2028 rhythm arsenic much states redraw their lines successful the aftermath of the U.S. Supreme Court's ruling.

But determination is simply a large obstacle for immoderate much GOP redraws successful 2026: time. 

Many states either person conducted their superior elections, person them coming up soon oregon person already passed the qualification deadline for candidates to get onto the ballot. Legal challenges are likely, and last-minute changes to the maps could tally into occupation with the "Purcell principle," which establishes that national courts cannot alteration voting oregon predetermination rules excessively adjacent to an election. 

Another obstacle for 2026 is the uphill governmental situation for the party, stemming from voter frustrations with the system and continuing U.S. warfare waged connected Iran. 

"If you gully a Trump +7 territory oregon adjacent a Trump +10 district, that whitethorn not beryllium enough. So wherefore not hold til' an predetermination rhythm successful 2028 that mightiness beryllium amended for your party?" said Michael Li, elder counsel successful the Brennan Center's Democracy Program. 

While determination person been calls from GOP activists to tweak their maps successful galore Republican-controlled states, including Georgia and South Carolina, present is simply a breakdown of which states are apt to effort to redraw their maps earlier this November's midterm election: 

Louisiana (potential +1 to 2 R seats)

Early voting for the May 16 superior was acceptable to commencement May 2, and ballots person already been printed. Secretary of State Nancy Landry said Thursday that the different primaries volition spell connected arsenic planned, including for the state's Senate race, and they volition station astatine each voting locations that the House superior has been suspended.

"Pursuant to 18:401.1(B), I person certified the exigency successful airy of the Supreme Court ruling. This is simply a mandatory measurement anterior to the Governor issuing an enforcement bid suspending the upcoming Louisiana U.S. House races," Secretary Landry said successful a connection connected societal media. 

In an executive order signed Thursday, Republican Gov. Jeff Landry encouraged the authorities legislature to walk caller legislature maps and docket elections "as soon arsenic practical." President Trump thanked Landry connected Thursday for moving rapidly to redraw the lines aft the precocious court's decision. 

Louisiana Attorney General Liz Murrill told CBS News connected Wednesday that the authorities whitethorn determination to revert backmost to the aged map, with conscionable 1 Black-majority district, adjacent if it is simply a "big lift" to alteration the dates for the state's May primary. That representation favored Republicans successful 5 districts and Democrats successful conscionable one. 

Depending connected however assertive authorities GOP legislators are, a caller representation could adhd 1 to 2 GOP-leaning seats by carving up the Black-majority seats they have. The authorities is astir one-third Black, according to the U.S. Census.

"We tin realistically extremity up having six legislature districts with nary African-American, oregon Democratic representation, it's precise possible, fixed what we've seen hap crossed this country," Democratic Rep. Troy Carter told CBS News connected Wednesday. 

"The world is this is overmuch deeper and overmuch further than Louisiana. This tin interaction up to 19 oregon 20 seats successful the legislature Black Caucus. It tin interaction schoolhouse boards. It tin interaction metropolis councils, legislative seats. This is, successful fact, an explosive determination to crook the timepiece backmost each the mode pre-1965," helium added.

Florida (potential +4 R) 

A projected representation from Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis passed the authorities legislature connected Wednesday and is waiting for his signature. It looks to adhd 4 much Republican-leaning seats by eliminating oregon shrinking Democratic-leaning districts successful Tampa, Orlando and parts of the state's southeast coast. 

DeSantis' counsel had already been anticipating this ruling from the U.S. Supreme Court, and reason it means they don't person to travel radical requirements wrong their ain authorities constitution's "Fair Districts" Amendments. 

"Much similar Louisiana's 'intentional compliance with the court's demands constituted an explicit acknowledgement that contention played a relation successful the drafting of territory lines,' Florida's intentional compliance with the [Fair Districts Amendments] would represent specified an acknowledgement," DeSantis wide counsel David Axelman wrote successful a missive to authorities lawmakers arsenic they were debating the map.

Democratic predetermination lawyer Marc Elias has pledged to situation the representation successful court. 

Tennessee (potential +1 R)

Gubernatorial campaigner and existent U.S. Sen. Marsha Blackburn has already called repeatedly for the Tennessee legislature to reconvene to redraw the lines for the 2026 election. Blackburn proposed a map that could effect successful a 9 Republican to zero Democrat split, by breaking up Tennessee's 9th District that encompasses Memphis and diluting the Black elector population. 

The state's Congressional primaries are scheduled for Aug. 6, though the qualifying deadline successful March has already passed. Republican Gov. Bill Lee has not called for a redistricting league yet, but the state's House Republican Whip State. Rep. Johnny Garrett threw his enactment down Blackburn's proposal. 

"Tennessee should bash its portion successful supporting @realDonaldTrump's America First docket by getting escaped of the woke @RepCohen," Garrett wrote. 

Mr. Trump said helium called Governor Lee connected Thursday, and was told he'd "work hard to close the unconstitutional flaw successful the Congressional Maps of the Great State of Tennessee."

"This should springiness america 1 other seat, and assistance Save our Country from the Radical Left Democrats," Mr. Trump wrote. "Thank you Governor Lee – PUSH HARD!"

Mississippi (potential +1 R)

Republican Gov. Tate Reeves has already announced that a redistricting league would hap 21 days aft the Louisiana v. Callais ruling, which would beryllium May 20. GOP operatives successful the authorities enactment his telephone was technically focused connected redrawing the State's Supreme tribunal districts, arsenic those lines had been challenged successful courts implicit diluting the voting powerfulness of Black voters. 

But it's imaginable that Mississippi Republicans volition tack connected legislature redistricting to this, too, and adhd 1 GOP-leaning spot by targeting the state's 2nd Congressional District, a majority-Black territory represented by Democratic Rep. Bennie Thompson. 

"First Dobbs. Now Callais. Just Mississippi and Louisiana down present redeeming our country!" Reeves wrote connected X Wednesday. 

But similar Louisiana, Mississippi has a timeline occupation since its primaries already happened successful March. 

"There's tons of complications to [schedule different primary]. If you docket an August primary, similar who's going to crook retired for different superior successful August? There's a batch of variability erstwhile you determination primaries successful antithetic times, and it's expensive," said Li, elder counsel successful the Brennan Center's Democracy Program.

"Unlikely legally that redraw would stand, but they tin try," added Michael McNulty, the argumentation manager astatine the Issue One organization. 

That isn't stopping Republican authorities officials from saying the lines should beryllium redrawn anyways. 

"This apt opens the doorway to redrawing Mississippi's legislature districts. Mississippi mightiness nary longer person a territory drawn to support Bennie Thompson," wrote Republican Mississippi authorities Auditor Shad White. 

"It's clip to erase Bennie Thompson's District," wrote Republican authorities Sen. Kevin Blackwell.

Alabama (potential +1 R)

In 2023, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled against Alabama erstwhile they took up a akin lawsuit to Louisiana v. Callais. They ruled 5-4 successful the Allen v. Milligan lawsuit that a authorities GOP-supported legislature representation violated Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act, and ordered the authorities to redraw a representation that includes a 2nd Black-majority Congressional seat. 

But aft a national 3 justice sheet ruled that representation violated the Voting Rights Act and 14th Amendment, the authorities appealed to the U.S. Supreme Court again. 

Republican Gov. Kay Ivey pointed to that pending litigation arsenic a crushed to not yet telephone for a peculiar league to redraw the maps. "While we are not successful presumption to person a peculiar league astatine this time, I anticipation successful airy of this caller decision, the tribunal is favorable to Alabama," Ivey said successful a statement. 

The authorities present has 2 Black-majority seats: the 2nd District and 7th District. Alabama Attorney General Steve Marshall said the authorities "will enactment arsenic rapidly arsenic possible" to use the Louisiana ruling to Alabama's redistricting efforts, to "ensure that our legislature maps bespeak the volition of the people, not a radical quota strategy the Constitution forbids."

Nikole Killion contributed to this report.