Virginia Democrats seek 10-1 congressional map with voter referendum

Virginia voters are deciding Tuesday whether to o.k. a referendum to redraw their state's legislature districts to favour Democrats by a 10-1 margin, the latest conflict successful the nationwide scramble by some parties to summation their chances of winning power of the House. 

Polls volition beryllium unfastened connected Tuesday until 7 p.m. ET. Early voting began connected March 6, and turnout truthful acold has been high, particularly for a peculiar election. As of Monday, much than 1.35 cardinal radical had voted early, astir arsenic galore arsenic the full 1.48 cardinal who voted successful past fall's statewide races, according to Virginia Public Access Project.

The referendum is seeking to amend the authorities constitution to let a mid-decade redistricting utilizing the Democratic-controlled Assembly's redrawn legislature maps, which volition springiness Democrats an vantage successful each but 1 of the state's 11 House seats. 

According to the referendum, the maps would lone beryllium successful spot until the 2030 election, aft which the modular redistricting process volition resume. Normally, states redraw their legislature maps erstwhile each 10 years, pursuing the decennial Census.

Democrats presently power six of the state's 11 House seats, and the existent representation was drawn by a bipartisan commission. The caller representation would interruption up the bluish portion of the state, which includes the D.C. suburbs and has trended much and much Democratic implicit the years, into respective districts that widen into the much blimpish confederate and occidental parts of the state. It would besides stress Democratic Richmond and Virginia Beach. 

Proposed Virginia legislature territory map Virginia State Legislative Information System

A akin ballot measurement shepherded by California Gov. Gavin Newsom sailed through that authorities past year, shifting 5 GOP-held seats toward Democrats. Newsom and Virginia Gov. Abigail Spanberger are seeking to adjacent retired the redistricting equilibrium expanse after President Trump ordered Texas' GOP lawmakers to redraw their legislature maps to springiness Republicans up to 5 much seats. Missouri and North Carolina also redrew their maps to borderline retired 1 Democratic lawmaker apiece.

Virginia Democrats pushed guardant with the caller maps successful the 2026 legislative session, buoyed by the party's statewide successes successful 2025. Last November, Spanberger won by 15 points, Democratic Attorney General Jay Jones defeated incumbent Jason Miyares contempt convulsive substance messages that emerged and Democrats swept some the House of Delegates and the authorities Senate.

But contempt those triumph margins, a Washington Post/George Mason University poll successful March had the yes ballot lone starring by 5 points. 

Brian Cannon of Fair Vote Virginia said helium has been a Democrat for 25 years. But helium is publically opposed to the redistricting referendum, pointing to the enactment helium did antecedently to make a bipartisan committee to gully the state's legislature maps. He said that though helium agrees with Republicans against the referendum, the enactment arsenic a full is "not consenting to accidental Trump was incorrect to commencement this combat successful Texas." He said helium is moving with Virginians from some parties who are opposed to this measure. 

Cannon said helium believes that Democrats would person had the momentum successful November, and "it's ridiculous, fixed that Abigail Spanberger won the authorities by 15 points — they tin conscionable triumph just and quadrate 2 much seats nether the just maps that we have." 

But present Cannon said helium has seen that Republicans are "fired up, successful a mode they surely were not successful November of past year, and that's evident successful the aboriginal voting, adjacent successful deep-red spots." He said helium has spoken to Democrats, connected the different hand, who say: "I hatred Trump and I hatred gerrymandering, and I truly americium torn and I'm conscionable not going to vote." 

Complicating matters successful Virginia is that the referendum is asking voters to fundamentally overturn a law amendment that was enacted lone 5 years agone and was pushed by Democrats astatine the time. 

While immoderate Democrats nationwide person been fired up by countering Mr. Trump's redistricting propulsion successful reddish states, Mark Rozell of George Mason's Schar School of Policy and Government noted that it's much of a "risky gamble" for Virginia Democrats due to the fact that it "sets a precedent. And Virginia is much of a purple state."

But Democrats person sought to formed the Virginia redistricting arsenic a nationwide referendum, with ads featuring erstwhile President Barack Obama for the yes vote. Obama's Attorney General Eric Holder, the president of the National Democratic Redistricting Committee who antecedently had advocated against partisan gerrymandering, told "Face the Nation with Margaret Brennan" connected Sunday that the referendum is not a "fight lone astir Virginia."

"We request to woody with the situation that we person close now, travel up with a mode successful which we woody with that crisis, and past get backmost to the redistricting commissions successful California and successful Virginia," Holder said. "And 1 happening I deliberation it's truly important to recognize is that the radical person the quality to marque this determination successful Virginia, arsenic they did successful California, arsenic opposed to …being imposed upon them successful Texas and successful Missouri and successful North Carolina, which proved to beryllium wildly unpopular, but Republican politicians ignored the volition of the radical successful those states and enactment successful spot these mechanisms."

Although the GOP won the Virginia governor's mansion arsenic precocious arsenic 2021, the state's Republicans person suffered from connections to Mr. Trump and the national government, particularly arsenic the portion continues to woody with the fallout from the Trump administration's national jobs cuts, soaring state prices and precocious inflation. 

Nearly $100 cardinal has been poured into the contention already, with 95% of that wealth donated coming from acheronian wealth groups. Virginians for Fair Elections, a radical supporting the referendum, has donated $64 million, portion an anti-redistricing radical Virginians for Fair Maps has poured successful astir $20 million, according to information from the Virginia Public Access Project. 

There are immoderate signs that the redistricting scramble that started past summertime successful Texas is starting to cool. In December, contempt Mr. Trump's attempts to intervene, a representation that would person fixed Indiana Republicans a 9-0 vantage failed successful the GOP-controlled authorities Senate. And earlier this month, the Maryland legislative league ended without a ballot connected a representation backed by Democratic Gov. Wes Moore to effort to borderline retired the state's lone Republican subordinate of Congress. 

But Kyle Kondik, the managing exertion of Sabato's Crystal Ball astatine University of Virginia Center for Politics, said that "basically, arsenic of close now, the wide House representation hasn't truly changed each that overmuch successful favour of 1 broadside oregon the other" contempt truthful galore states redrawing their maps. 

Florida Republicans could inactive instrumentality up redistricting successful a peculiar session. But if Republicans aren't capable to propulsion done caller maps successful immoderate different states and Virginia Democrats succeed, nationally, "Democrats tin really travel retired up connected redistricting," according to Kondik.

"It's funny, the themes astir redeeming ideology and quote-unquote fairness, similar some sides could marque that constituent and marque it successful a valid way," Kondik said. "And truthful successful immoderate ways, it's benignant of a muddle. I mean, is it a quote-unquote just representation successful Virginia? Of people it's not. But successful the broader discourse of this redistricting warfare that's going on, past possibly the fairness statement makes much sense."