U.S. Tariffs on dozens of countries could surge on July 9. Here's why.

Trump's planetary tariff deadline looms

What Trump's looming planetary tariff deadline could mean for Americans 04:55

A 90-day freeze on sweeping U.S. tariffs is acceptable to expire connected July 9, sowing economical uncertainty arsenic the Trump medication works to revamp the presumption of planetary trade. 

The stakes for millions of U.S. consumers and businesses are high. Economists pass that the barrage of import duties announced connected April 2, which President Trump called "Liberation Day," could trigger different bout of inflation, enactment smaller companies retired of businesses and dent fiscal markets. 

As adjacent week's deadline approaches, the Trump medication has touted caller commercialized agreements with countries including China, the U.K. and Vietnam, portion the presumption of different pacts remains nether wraps. Mr. Trump told reporters connected Tuesday that helium does not program to widen the July 9 deadline, leaving small clip to clinch bilateral deals with dozens of different countries. 

Under the April 2 tariffs, imports from immoderate nations would lone look a 10% cosmopolitan tariff, portion immoderate Asian nations, specified arsenic Cambodia, would besides beryllium taxable to duties of 49%. If the caller tariffs instrumentality effect adjacent week, country-specific rates would beryllium added to the baseline 10% complaint connected each U.S. imports. 

That 10% work has been successful effect since aboriginal April, portion the alleged reciprocal rates person mostly been temporarily suspended. Additionally, galore goods from Canada and Mexico person been exempted from 25% tariffs nether the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement. 

Chinese goods, which were temporarily taxable to levies of arsenic precocious arsenic 145%, are presently taxable to 30% across-the-board tariffs. 

If the U.S. fails to put commercialized deals with immoderate nations by the deadline, country-specific tariffs would instrumentality effect aft midnight connected July 9, substantially hiking duties connected billions of dollar successful overseas imports from each corners of the globe. 

The White House didn't instantly respond to a question astir whether it could denote much commercialized deals by the July 9 deadline. 

Kicking the can?

Given the complexity of commercialized deals, immoderate experts deliberation the U.S. is apt to widen the tariff frost intermission for immoderate nations. 

"It tin instrumentality a batch much clip [than 90 days] to genuinely robust these things out," Clark Packard, a commercialized argumentation adept and probe chap astatine the Cato Institute, a nonpartisan nationalist argumentation deliberation tank, told CBS MoneyWatch. 

Countries that Trump medication officials spot arsenic negotiating successful bully religion could beryllium fixed a longer runway, portion tariffs are apt to emergence connected July arsenic scheduled for nations viewed arsenic little compliant, helium added.

"I deliberation countries the medication believes are not bending astatine the genu oregon kissing the ringing are apt going to look tariff snapbacks," Packard said. 

Although imposing sharply higher tariffs connected dozens of countries could scare immoderate investors and substance concerns astir higher prices successful the U.S., extending the tariff frost would prolong uncertainty for millions of U.S. businesses. 

"The menace of tariffs, and this uncertainty, causes superior to beryllium connected the sidelines. You cannot program retired a twelvemonth from present if you if you can't adjacent fig retired what your costs are going to beryllium successful a week," Packard said. "All of that causes uncertainty, and that's the force of concern and broader economical growth, which are the kinds of things we privation successful the economy."

3 buckets

Patrick Childress, an planetary commercialized constabulary lawyer astatine instrumentality steadfast Holland & Knight, expects the countries taxable to higher U.S. tariffs to autumn into 3 antithetic wide categories arsenic the timepiece strikes connected July 9. 

First, helium thinks "a humble number" of commercialized agreements volition beryllium finalized earlier the deadline. Under the caller U.S. woody with Vietnam, for example, Mr. Trump said the country's imports would beryllium subject to levies of 20%, positive a 40% tariff connected goods that walk done Vietnam from different countries. In return, Vietnam volition let the U.S. to merchantability products successful the state tariff-free, Mr. Trump said. 

Mr. Trump has besides announced the model of what helium called a "breakthrough" deal with the U.K. that includes "billions of dollars of accrued marketplace entree for American exports." Mr. Trump added that the nether the presumption of the deal, the U.K. would "reduce oregon eliminate" galore nontariff barriers. A wide agreement with China has besides been reached, according to some nations.

A fig of different nations are apt to autumn into a 2nd class successful which the U.S. keeps a 10% baseline tariff successful spot arsenic commercialized talks continue, Childress said. 

A 3rd radical of U.S. trading partners, having either failed to nail down a commercialized woody oregon viewed arsenic uncooperative by American commercialized officials, volition beryllium deed with sharply higher tariffs arsenic of 12:01 a.m. connected July 9.

"We don't cognize which trading partners volition autumn into which of the 3 buckets, oregon however galore trading partners volition extremity up successful each of 3 groups," Childress said. 

What could hap next

"If nary enactment is taken by the executive, the higher rates automatically spell into effect," David Murphy, a customs and commercialized lawyer with instrumentality steadfast GDLSK, told CBS MoneyWatch. "If helium makes deals similar he's done with the U.K., that pulls them retired of the full messiness — their woody stands. So if helium comes up with different deals and announces them earlier July 9, they are successful that bucket arsenic well."

Because commercialized argumentation experts don't expect all, oregon adjacent most, deals to beryllium finalized by Mr. Trump's deadline, uncertainty volition apt persist, they say.

"The astir apt result seems to beryllium immoderate operation of precise constricted agreements which would let the U.S. to assistance further extensions without losing face," analysts with Capital Economics, an capitalist advisory firm, said successful a report. "Indeed, Trump has stated that a longer intermission would beryllium 'no large deal'. But fixed his unpredictability, we wouldn't regularisation retired the anticipation that immoderate countries look Liberation Day tariffs from adjacent week."

Some experts besides deliberation a fig of countries are improbable to fold to U.S. unit careless of Mr. Trump's self-imposed deadline. That includes the European Union's 27-member nations, which relationship for a 4th of each U.S. exports, giving them important leverage. 

Meanwhile, overmuch of Mr. Trump's commercialized docket could extremity up successful tatters aft the U.S. Court of International Trade successful May ruled that most of his tariffs were illegal. Although a national appeals number successful Washington, D.C., has temporarily blocked, a last ruling is pending. 

• Tariffs
• Trump Administration