U.S. intel community analyzing how Cuba might respond to military action

1 hour ago 5

Washington — The U.S. quality assemblage has been exploring however Cuba mightiness respond to an American subject action, CBS News has learned.

Earlier this month, arsenic the U.S. quality assemblage tracked the Universal, a sanctioned Russian-flagged lipid tanker bound for Cuba, analysts astatine the Pentagon and Defense Intelligence Agency, the U.S. military's quality arm, started to analyse what the Cuban effect would beryllium to an American onslaught connected the Caribbean country. Work connected processing subject options for President Trump has begun, according to 2 U.S. officials with cognition of the matter. Both requested anonymity due to the fact that they were not authorized to talk publicly.

These types of quality forecasts effort not lone to amusement the contiguous consequences of an American action, but the concatenation of reactions that whitethorn follow. U.S. subject planners often incorporated specified investigation into processing options for a president to consider.

When asked Wednesday by reporters if determination would beryllium further escalation successful Cuba pursuing the U.S. indictment of erstwhile Cuban person Raúl Castro, Mr. Trump replied, "No, determination won't beryllium escalation. I don't deliberation determination needs to be."

The blowback appraisal from the U.S. quality assemblage is not clear, but it is ongoing and comes arsenic tensions betwixt Havana and Washington person been rising. This year, the Trump medication has issued much sanctions, targeted Cuban subject and quality officials and expanded efforts to choke off Cuba's substance and shipping access.

CBS News has confirmed that Cuba has acquired onslaught drones — it's not wide who provided the drones oregon however they were obtained. On Sunday, Axios, which archetypal reported the quality of the Cuban drones, said Havana had obtained much than 300 subject drones and had discussed plans to usage them to onslaught the U.S. subject installation astatine Guantanamo Bay if hostilities with the U.S. erupt. Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel denied Havana poses immoderate subject menace to the U.S., but warned that a U.S. battle would origin a "bloodbath."

Last week, CIA Director John Ratcliffe traveled to Cuba and met with quality officials and Raúl Guillermo "Raulito" Rodríguez Castro, the grandson of erstwhile person Raúl Castro. A CIA authoritative said that Ratcliffe told Cuban officials the Trump medication was offering "a genuine accidental for collaboration" and a accidental to stabilize Cuba's struggling economy, portion cautioning that the accidental was contingent connected Cuba severing its ties with U.S. adversaries Russia, China and Iran. Ratcliffe besides said the connection would not stay unfastened indefinitely.

In an executive order earlier this year, Mr. Trump claimed Cuba harbored Russia's largest overseas listening post. The Biden medication besides accused China of opening up spy facilities connected the Communist land conscionable 90 miles from U.S. shores.

A U.S. authoritative told CBS News that the Ratcliffe gathering would trial whether those wrong the Cuban authorities who admit that the state needs a caller absorption tin triumph implicit the hardliners who judge that their quality to defy U.S. unit implicit 67 years means they'll beryllium capable to outlast Mr. Trump.

Ratcliffe's sojourn followed a bid of concealed meetings betwixt Cuban officials and elder State Department officials.

In April, a delegation traveled to Havana and floated offering Cuba entree to Starlink, a outer net work operated by Elon Musk's SpaceX.

More recently, Secretary of State Marco Rubio reiterated a U.S. connection of $100 cardinal successful humanitarian aid, to beryllium sent to Cuba done faith-based charities that helium earlier said had been stalled by Cuban authorities officials. A elder State Department authoritative said Tuesday that the complaint d'affaires successful Cuba, Michael Hammer, had met successful caller days with Cuban overseas ministry officials to present the presumption of the U.S. proposal, which includes food, aesculapian supplies, star lamps and different basal goods to beryllium distributed island-wide.

Rubio connected Wednesday released a Spanish-language video directed astatine the Cuban radical that blamed the land authorities for wide substance and nutrient shortages crossed the country. He singled retired GAESA, the concern conglomerate tally by Cuba's subject that controls astir of the economy, arsenic the main obstacle preventing practice with the U.S. The U.S. sanctioned GAESA earlier this period and unveiled a caller swath of sanctions connected Cuban subject and quality agencies and officials connected Monday.

On Friday, CBS News archetypal reported that the U.S. was taking steps to indict Raúl Castro, the 94-year-old erstwhile president, successful transportation with the downing of 2 craft 30 years ago. On Wednesday, national prosecutors successful Florida unsealed an indictment charging Castro and 5 others successful transportation with the Cuban subject action.

Meanwhile, the Universal has been sailing successful circles for weeks successful the Atlantic Ocean and implicit 1,000 miles distant from Cuba. In the past, galore ships bound for Cuba person altered people amid concerns they could beryllium intercepted by U.S. naval forces. The United States did let crude lipid carried by the Russian tanker Anatoly Kolodkin to reach Cuba and supply alleviation to the land backmost successful March. Earlier this week, the U.S. allowed ships carrying assistance from Uruguay and Mexico to present supplies.

As planetary vigor markets convulsed amid the U.S.-Israel warfare with Iran, Washington has approved 30-day exemptions allowing countries to proceed receiving Russian lipid and petroleum shipments already aboard tankers and en route.

Joanne Stocker contributed to this report.

In: