Trump says "prices are coming down." Here's what the data shows.

3 days ago 10

President Trump delivered a connection Tuesday evening aimed astatine the millions of Americans struggling to spend regular necessities, saying his medication is "crushing" inflation and that "prices are coming down tremendously." Economic information tells a antithetic story.

Prices person edged higher for overmuch of Mr. Trump's archetypal twelvemonth backmost successful the White House, with ostentation successful September rising astatine an yearly complaint of 3% (the astir caller disposable ostentation information due to the fact that of the caller U.S. government shutdown).

Inflation dipped to a debased this twelvemonth of 2.3% successful April, but it has steadily ticked up since past and present stands astatine the aforesaid complaint arsenic successful January, erstwhile Mr. Trump was inaugurated, national information shows. Economists property the emergence partially to the Trump administration's caller tariffs connected imports, with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell pointing to those levies arsenic a cardinal origin down the caller uptick.

Inflation present "is higher than earlier successful the twelvemonth arsenic ostentation for goods has picked up, reflecting the interaction of tariffs," Powell said astatine a property league connected Wednesday to sermon the cardinal bank's latest involvement complaint cut.

Some Wall Street analysts deliberation prices are apt to proceed creeping up for a while. Mark Vickery, elder marketplace expert astatine Zacks Investment Research, estimates that the Consumer Price Index roseate astatine an yearly complaint of astir 3.3% successful November.

To beryllium sure, galore economists, arsenic good arsenic the Fed, expect immoderate further pickup successful ostentation to beryllium short-lived earlier easing successful 2026. Powell connected Wednesday said the tariff effect volition apt make a one-time emergence successful prices that should slice implicit the coming year. The Fed expects ostentation to recede to 2.4% adjacent year, down from astir 2.9% successful 2025.

From a longer-term perspective, ostentation has so fallen sharply since hitting a 40-year precocious of astir 9% successful June 2022 successful the aftermath of the pandemic. For shoppers, however, a little ostentation complaint doesn't mean prices are declining — lone that they're rising astatine a slower pace.

Consumers thin not to presumption pocketbook issues done the lens of authoritative ostentation measures, a somewhat abstract metric that tracks terms fluctuations implicit time, experts person agelong noted. Instead, galore shoppers absorption connected their existent dollars-and-cents spending, including whether their out-of-pocket expenses are higher than they were successful the past, according to probe from the University of Florida.

By that yardstick, Americans are spending much connected mundane basics than they were a twelvemonth ago, and acold much than they did conscionable earlier the pandemic, CPI information shows.

Mr. Trump's remarks, made Tuesday successful Mount Pocono, Pa., came arsenic his medication touts the president's economical policies up of adjacent year's midterm elections.

"I person nary higher precedence than making America affordable," Mr. Trump said successful the speech.

Prior to the speech, Mr. Trump had decried affordability arsenic a "hoax" perpetuated by Democrats, though immoderate Republicans, including Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, person differed with him connected the issue. Greene told CBS News that she doesn't judge affordability is simply a hoax, adding, "Everyone's bills person either stayed the aforesaid oregon gone up."

"You can't gaslight radical and archer them that their bills are affordable," Greene said.

White House spokesperson Kush Desai expressed assurance that Mr. Trump's docket volition chill ostentation and boost idiosyncratic wages.

"President Trump inherited the worst ostentation situation successful a procreation from Joe Biden's incompetence, and his Administration has rapidly cooled ostentation to a 2.5% annualized rate," Desai said successful a connection to CBS News. "As the administration's supply-side policies of taxation cuts, deregulation and vigor abundance proceed taking effect, Americans tin number connected ostentation continuing to autumn and existent wages continuing to rise."

Food

Americans paid 2.7% much for nutrient bought astatine the market store successful September than they did a twelvemonth earlier, according to the astir caller CPI figures. That whitethorn not look similar much, but their market bills person climbed astir 49% since 2020.

See the CBS News price tracker showing changes successful the terms of food, gas, utilities and different costs

Some nutrient costs are besides rising overmuch faster than the complaint of inflation, with beef steaks surging almost 17% from a twelvemonth ago, according to the CPI data. Earlier this month, the Trump medication sought to little immoderate market prices by exempting foods similar beef, java and bananas from caller country-specific tariffs.

Shoppers connected Tuesday told CBS News' Nancy Cordes that they are making tradeoffs and scrimping to spend groceries.

"The outgo of beef is astronomical. I volition chiefly get what's connected sale," Anne Marie Hadley, a retired peculiar acquisition teacher who was buying Tuesday astatine Schiel's Family Market, a family-owned market store successful Scranton, Pa., told Cordes.

Housing

While owe rates person dropped this year, lodging remains retired of scope for astir would-be buyers. More than 75% of homes crossed the state are unaffordable for the emblematic household, Bankrate said successful a report this week.

A homebuyer contiguous needs to gain $131,400 a twelvemonth to spend a emblematic location successful the U.S. — astir treble the astir $65,000 needed 5 years ago, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.

Almost three-quarters of Americans said lodging has grown much unaffordable successful their communities successful caller years, according to an October canvass from YouGov and the University of Florida Center for Public Interest Communications.

Gas

One country wherever consumers are getting a interruption is astatine the pump, with gasoline prices down from a twelvemonth earlier. Gas declined 0.5% successful September from a twelvemonth earlier, CPI information shows. And earlier this month, state dropped beneath $3 a gallon connected average, marking the lowest terms since May 2021.

"It was conscionable reported that 4 states had $1.99 a gallon," Mr. Trump said connected Tuesday. "We are close present progressive successful much energy, and person much vigor successful the works by acold than we've ever had before."

The diminution is owed to beardown refinery output and little crude lipid prices, arsenic good arsenic to softer seasonal substance demand, GasBuddy has said.

Yet portion substance prices person dropped, different vigor costs person increased. Residential energy prices astir the U.S. rose much than 10% implicit the archetypal 8 months of 2025, according to the National Energy Assistance Directors Association, an acquisition and argumentation organization. By comparison, powerfulness costs roseate astir 6% implicit the trailing 12 months.

As of June, astir 1 successful 20 U.S. households was earnestly down connected their inferior bills, according to a report from The Century Foundation, a nonpartisan deliberation tank, and advocacy radical Protect Borrowers. Over the past 3 years, the mean overdue equilibrium connected inferior bills climbed from $597 to $789, a 32% jump, the groups found.

— With reporting by CBS News' Nancy Cordes.

Edited by Alain Sherter