Trump Makes Unsupported Claims About Drug Flows

President Donald Trump has repeatedly said that his medication has “cut” by 97% “the flow” of amerciable drugs entering the U.S. “by water, by water and sea.” But disposable national information bash not enactment that claim.

There is no broad information on the full magnitude of drugs trafficked to the U.S., including however overmuch authorities don’t capture. Without that information, cause argumentation experts person told america that it’s not imaginable to cognize if the president’s assertion is accurate.

“[W]e bash not cognize the existent magnitude of drugs coming into the state due to the fact that we don’t cognize the magnitude that comes successful undetected (the known unknown),” Katharine Harris, a chap successful cause argumentation astatine Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy, told america successful an email.

She said the magnitude of drugs “seized” — which is what the national authorities reports — is not equivalent to full cause “flow.”

However, Trump, based lone connected cherry-picked seizure data, continues to assertion that his medication has astir wholly stopped drugs from being brought into the U.S. by mode of water.

“We chopped the travel of fentanyl crossed our borderline by 59%, which is unheard of,” Trump said successful May 22 remarks successful New York. “And we chopped the travel of fentanyl and drugs into our state by the water and the sea, successful different words, coming successful by water, by water and oversea by 97%.”

Then, connected May 28, in an interview with his daughter-in-law, Lara Trump, connected Fox News, helium said, “We person drugs down 97%. Fentanyl and assorted drugs down 97% connected drugs coming successful by water.”

The president has made the 97% simplification assertion much than a dozen times since precocious December.

We already addressed successful February Trump’s unsupported assertion that fentanyl coming crossed U.S. borders is down by much than half. 

The magnitude of fentanyl seized by Customs and Border Protection decreased by astir 50% successful the archetypal afloat 15 months of Trump’s 2nd term, going from 26,398 pounds seized successful President Joe Biden’s past afloat 15 months successful bureau to 13,216 pounds seized successful Trump’s archetypal afloat 15 months, according to the astir caller CBP data. Also, based connected provisional data, the National Center for Health Statistics estimates astir a 22% diminution successful overdose deaths from synthetic opioids, oregon fentanyl, betwixt 2024 and 2025 — from 48,913 to 38,084.

The seizure information is often utilized arsenic a proxy for however overmuch enters the state undetected. To some, less pounds seized indicates that less drugs are being smuggled successful — not more.

The information that the seized magnitude has declined could mean that little of the cause is being trafficked into the U.S., but it could besides mean that authorities are catching little of it. In October 2024, we wrote astir then-Vice President Kamala Harris’ assertion that the Biden medication had chopped the travel of amerciable fentanyl “by half” due to the fact that the magnitude seized by borderline officials had increased successful Biden’s archetypal 2 years arsenic president.

But experts said determination was besides insufficient information to enactment her statement.

“If you don’t cognize the denominator” – meaning the fig for the full travel of a cause to the U.S. – “you can’t person an answer,” David Luckey, manager of the RAND Rural America Partnership Initiative and prof of argumentation investigation astatine the RAND School of Public Policy, told us for that 2024 story. 

Trump’s assertion astir drugs coming by h2o is flawed for akin reasons.

When we asked for the root of his claim, a elder medication authoritative sent lone a hyperlink to the webpage with statistics connected drugs seized by CBP’s Air and Marine Operations, which does aviation and maritime instrumentality enforcement.

Sometimes — specified arsenic successful June 10 remarks successful the Oval Office — Trump sounds arsenic though he’s claiming that determination has been a 97% chopped successful fentanyl coming by water. But that’s not truly what helium means.

Administration officials person told other fact-checkers that the president’s assertion is based connected the alteration successful the magnitude of each drugs seized successful July 2025 compared with November 2025. 

There were 4,476 combined pounds of cocaine, fentanyl, marijuana, heroin and methamphetamine interdicted by CBP’s Air and Marine Operations past November, astir a 98% driblet from the 224,805 pounds seized 4 months earlier successful July. But that peculiar examination was cherry-picked. 

That July, determination was a immense one-month spike successful the magnitude of drugs seized – mostly marijuana. The full value seized had accrued 1,140% from 18,132 pounds successful June. Using July arsenic a starting constituent made the alteration successful cause seizures nether Trump look similar a overmuch larger decline.

“Picking a antithetic month” to commencement “would person shown a smaller decline,” Harris, of the Baker Institute, said of the White House’s calculation. She added, “Generally it’s much informative to look astatine these trends implicit astatine slightest a 12-month period, particularly erstwhile the information are available, successful bid to relationship for things similar seasonal saltation and outlier events.”

In fact, arsenic of April, the astir caller information available, determination had been 547,603 pounds seized by CBP’s Air and Marine Operations successful Trump’s archetypal afloat 15 months backmost successful office. That was an summation of astir 81% from the 302,548 pounds seized successful the past afloat 15 months nether Biden. 

Even if the unusually ample magnitude of drugs seized successful July 2025 is excluded from that 15-month tally, the magnitude seized nether Trump was inactive astir 7% higher than nether Biden.

If an summation successful seizures indicates much drugs getting into the state undetected – arsenic immoderate Republicans have said – that’s the other of what Trump has claimed is happening.

In addition, the U.S. Coast Guard says it — not CBP — is “the pb national maritime instrumentality enforcement agency” liable for water-based interdiction of amerciable drugs. 

In fiscal twelvemonth 2025, which included astir 8 months nether Trump, the Coast Guard said it seized a grounds of astir 510,000 pounds of cocaine successful the Eastern Pacific Ocean and Caribbean – much than 3 times its yearly mean of 167,000 pounds.

In September, the past period of that fiscal year, the U.S. subject began striking boats successful the Caribbean Sea and Pacific Ocean that it claimed were bringing drugs to the U.S. 

But the New York Times, citing epidemiologists, addiction scientists and nationalist wellness experts, reported successful May that cocaine is inactive wide disposable successful the U.S., arsenic cause smugglers person seemingly adjusted to the vessel strikes by transporting their merchandise successful ample shipping containers oregon utilizing onshore routes done Central America.

Harris, the cause argumentation fellow, said the magnitude of drugs seized “can beryllium paired with different information points, similar the purity, price, and availability trends for a peculiar substance, to infer whether determination has been a simplification successful supply.” If drugs are much scarce, little potent and prices are higher, she said that could bespeak a proviso interruption.

“But the seizure information unsocial cannot substantiate claims astir the existent cause flow,” she said.

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