Trump Expands on Dubious Daily Tariff Revenue Claim

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President Donald Trump has added to his unsupported assertion that the U.S. is making “$2 cardinal a day” from tariffs by saying that the state was losing $2 cardinal oregon $3 cardinal “a day” nether President Joe Biden. Economists told america that Trump appears to beryllium wrongly comparing a precise precocious – and improbable – estimation of imaginable regular gross from his tariffs with a fig reflecting the mean regular U.S. commercialized shortage during Biden’s past twelvemonth successful office.

“My champion conjecture would beryllium that Trump is astir apt conflating antithetic concepts,” Robert C. Johnson, an subordinate prof of economics astatine the University of Notre Dame, told us. 

In an April 10 article astir Trump commercialized advisor Peter Navarro’s disputed assertion that Trump’s 2025 tariff policies volition rise $6 trillion to $7 trillion implicit 10 years, we concisely addressed the president’s connection that the U.S. is already “making a luck with tariffs — $2 cardinal a day.” But Trump has said it respective times since helium first uttered the assertion connected April 8.

He adjacent claimed successful an April 10 meeting with members of his Cabinet that “the fig is astir apt $3.5 cardinal a day” from tariffs. In that aforesaid meeting, helium said, “Look, we’re making $2 cardinal a time now. And during Biden, we were losing $3 cardinal a day.”

Then, successful an April 14 meeting with the president of El Salvador, Trump said, “on commercialized and different things, we’re doing great. We’re taking successful billions and billions of dollars.” That was followed by his assertion that “we were losing $2 cardinal a day. … Now we’re making $3 cardinal a day.”

We asked the White House however Trump arrived astatine those figures, but we didn’t person a response.

Trump’s Overstating Daily Tariff Revenues

Trump’s assertion of $2 cardinal oregon much a time successful tariff gross is contradicted by figures released by aggregate national departments oregon agencies.

As we’ve written, U.S. Customs and Border Protection, which collects tariffs, oregon customs duties, connected imports of overseas goods astatine ports of entry, said successful an April 8 statement that it has collected implicit $200 cardinal per time successful “additional associated revenue” from 13 of Trump’s tariff-related enforcement actions that person been implemented during the existent administration.

Also, arsenic of April 15, the U.S. had received much than $2.3 cardinal successful customs duties and definite excise taxes for the month, according to a Treasury Department regular fiscal statement. If that full included conscionable tariffs, since excise taxes are antithetic from customs duties, it inactive would beryllium astir $156 cardinal per time successful revenue. (Treasury information for lone customized duties paid successful April won’t beryllium available until May. In February, determination was astir $259 cardinal a time successful customs duties paid, and the March per-day full was astir $264 million.)

Economists we consulted were besides skeptical of the president’s assertion of billions of dollars successful regular tariff collections to date.

“No, determination is perfectly nary mode we are collecting $2b per time successful tariff revenue,” Gene M. Grossman, an economics and planetary affairs prof astatine Princeton University, told us.

“If you multiply each the announced tariffs by the measurement of commercialized with each country, you could get adjacent to $2b per day, mostly owed to the tariffs connected China,” helium wrote successful an email. “But that assumes that determination volition beryllium nary autumn disconnected successful imports with China contempt tariffs implicit 145%, which is simply a beauteous ridiculous assumption.”

And Johnson, of Notre Dame, speculated that the medication calculated the fig by taking the full worth of U.S. imports successful 2024 ($3.3 trillion successful goods) and multiplying it by 20%, “which is astir what the mean US tariff would person been aft the archetypal announcement” of tariffs connected April 2. Divided by 365 days, it’s astir $1.6 cardinal each day.

But, similar Grossman, Johnson said that Trump’s gross estimation appears to implausibly presume that “jacking up tariffs” won’t trim the magnitude of goods imported successful the agelong run.

“I deliberation the $2 cardinal a time is the implicit precocious bound connected what could beryllium collected successful gross from tariffs, and surely much than is likely,” Johnson wrote successful an email.

After announcing a minimum 10% tariff connected each imports of overseas foods and immoderate higher country-by-country tariff rates connected April 2, a week aboriginal Trump paused the higher rates for 90 days – but for tariffs connected goods from China, which person since accrued to 145%. Other antecedently announced tariffs inactive successful effect see 25% tariffs connected imports of steel, aluminum, automobiles and car parts.

Biden Didn’t Lose Billions a Day

As for Trump’s assertion that the U.S. mislaid “$2 cardinal a day” oregon “$3 cardinal a day” during the Biden administration, Grossman and Johnson some said that the president’s connection appears to beryllium based connected the U.S. planetary commercialized shortage – not gross from tariffs.

In 2024, Biden’s last twelvemonth arsenic president, the U.S. commercialized shortage successful goods and services was much than $918 billion, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. The commercialized shortage successful goods unsocial was astir $1.2 trillion. Divide either by 365 days, and you get an mean per-day shortage of betwixt $2.5 cardinal and $3.3 billion.

“My conjecture is that’s what Trump is mentally doing — since commercialized deficits mean you’re ‘losing’ successful his vocabulary,” Johnson said.

However, Grossman said “it’s ridiculous to deliberation of that arsenic a loss,” since the U.S. got the goods. He besides said it’s ridiculous “to equate [the mean regular commercialized deficit] successful immoderate mode to tariff revenue.”

In an April 8 post for Boston University’s “Expert Take” series, Tarek Alexander Hassan, a BU prof of economics, explained wherefore commercialized deficits shouldn’t beryllium seen arsenic wealth lost.

“A commercialized shortage sounds bad, but it is neither bully nor bad,” helium wrote. “It doesn’t mean the US is losing money. It simply means foreigners are sending the US much goods than the US is sending them.”

For the record, determination was much than $216 cardinal per time successful customs duties paid to the national authorities nether Biden successful 2024.

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