Trump Again Overstates Number of Drug Overdose Deaths in U.S.

Reviving an unfounded assertion helium has made for respective years, President Donald Trump connected Sept. 5 overstated the fig of Americans who died successful 2024 of cause overdoses, saying that he believed 300,000 oregon “350,000 radical died past twelvemonth from drugs.” A spokesperson for the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention told america the provisional fig of cause overdose deaths successful 2024 was 79,383, and an adept successful addiction medicine told america Trump’s fig was “a gross exaggeration.”

Trump made the overestimate astatine the White House portion signing an executive order renaming the Department of Defense arsenic the Department of War. Asked by a newsman astir the caller U.S. subject buildup successful the confederate Caribbean Sea adjacent Venezuela, Trump said those actions were successful effect to cause trafficking. Eight U.S. warships carrying onslaught aircraft, an onslaught submarine and Navy surveillance planes person been deployed to the confederate Caribbean, the New York Times reported.

On Sept. 2, the president announced connected Truth Social that a vessel successful planetary waters carrying what helium said were “positively identified Tren de Aragua Narcoterrorists” with amerciable drugs was deed successful a U.S. airstrike that “resulted successful 11 terrorists killed successful action.” Trump shared a black-and-white video showing an unfastened vessel with passengers being blown up. The administration hasn’t provided more accusation astir who was connected committee oregon what was being transported.

Asked astir the consequent U.S. subject buildup, Trump said: “Well, I conscionable deliberation it’s strong. We’re beardown connected drugs. We don’t privation drugs sidesplitting our people. I judge we mislaid 300,000. You know, they ever accidental 95[,000], 100,000. I judge they’ve been saying that for 20 years. I judge we mislaid 300,000 radical past year.”

“Whether it’s 100,000, but it’s not — it’s 300[,000], 350,000 radical died past twelvemonth from drugs. And we’re not going to fto that hap to this country,” helium aboriginal added. 

The astir caller provisional overdose decease information from the CDC’s National Center for Health Statistics bespeak that cause overdose deaths had decreased much than 24% from 105,007 deaths successful 2023 to 79,383 successful 2024, CDC spokesperson Gabriel Alvarado told america successful an email.

Dr. Daniel Ciccarone, a prof of addiction medicine astatine the University of California San Francisco, told america via email that Trump’s estimation was “a gross exaggeration” and the fig of cause overdose deaths successful the U.S. has ne'er been arsenic precocious arsenic 300,000 successful a year.

Looking astatine data provided by NCHS going backmost 10 years, cause overdose deaths peaked astatine 111,466 successful the 12-month play ending June 2023, followed by an “impressive driblet to the latest figure,” Ciccarone said, which is astir 75,000 for the 12-month play ending successful March 2025.

NCHS data amusement that the bulk of overdose deaths successful 2024 were from opioids. Overdose deaths from synthetic opioids, which include fentanyl, declined from 74,091 successful 2023 to 48,661 in 2024, a alteration of 34%.

Unfounded Claim About NCHS Data

Regarding Trump’s proposition that the overdose decease information whitethorn beryllium undercounted, Ciccarone said, “Counts tin beryllium implicit oregon nether for immoderate statistic; we telephone this ‘error,’ oregon ‘variance.'” But the NCHS information “are considered wide to beryllium reliable, authoritative, and portion determination is immoderate variance, it is estimated to beryllium low,” helium said.

“Death investigations involving cause overdose tin instrumentality a agelong clip and, successful immoderate cases, the origin of decease whitethorn inactive beryllium a pending probe erstwhile we finalize the information for the year,” the CDC’s Alvarado said. “Our champion estimation of the undercount successful caller years is astir 1-1.5%.”

As we’ve written, Trump has inflated the fig of U.S. cause overdose deaths earlier and said the numbers being reported were excessively low. He claimed during a 2024 run rally successful Phoenix, “300,000 radical are dying a year. Those are the existent numbers. They similar to accidental 100[,000]. They similar to accidental 90[,000]. It’s been that fig for a agelong time. It’s 300,000 people, and it’s astir apt much than that, and we’re going to person to instrumentality precise beardown enactment due to the fact that we can’t fto that happen.”

At a rally successful Waco, Texas, successful 2023, Trump said the overdose figures provided by the NCHS were a “lie” and the yearly deaths were “probably” 5 times arsenic high, as we wrote then.

Christopher Ruhm, a prof of nationalist argumentation and economics astatine the University of Virginia, told america successful 2023 that helium had “not yet seen convincing grounds that the fig of wide cause deaths is drastically underreported oregon adjacent needfully underreported astatine all.” Incomplete decease certificates had led to opioid cause deaths being “understated” successful the past, Ruhm wrote in a 2018 paper. But helium told america that reporting connected decease records had improved and that “undercount has fallen implicit time.”

We reached retired to the White House for grounds supporting Trump’s assertion astir the fig of cause overdose deaths successful 2024, but we did not person a response.

Factors Causing Decline successful Overdose Deaths

“At this infinitesimal it is chartless what is causing the past twelvemonth diminution successful overdose,” Ciccarone told us. “It is apt to beryllium a analyzable premix of proviso and request forces.”

U.S. Customs and Border Protection information amusement that seizures of fentanyl “from [Mexico] crossed the US/Mex borderline has gone down successful the past year,” Ciccarone said. “This has been attributed much to precursor controls successful China,” helium said, referring to the production of chemicals utilized to marque fentanyl successful China, “and consequent reduced Mexican cartel accumulation of fentanyl. There besides [has] been effectual enactment against 1 of the largest Mex cartels, the Sinaloa cartel, which whitethorn person impacted the fentanyl commercialized significantly.”

The Sinaloa cause cartel successful Mexico is “one of the world’s oldest and astir almighty cause cartels” and “one of the largest producers and traffickers of fentanyl and different illicit drugs to the United States,” according to the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration.

“Keep successful caput that overdoses had started to driblet during the Biden administration,” Ciccarone said. “Although [drug overdose] deaths peaked conscionable earlier Trump came into office, galore eastbound states were seeing drops from highest arsenic aboriginal arsenic 2021/22. The occurrence of the Chinese regularisation of fentanyl and precursors is owed to policies/high level decisions/diplomacy during the Biden administration. The Sinaloa cartel involution tin beryllium evenly attributed arsenic occurrence to some administrations.”

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