The 2026 blue wave, in charts

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Democrats volition present control the Senate and the House of Representatives aft the 2026 midterm elections. Of the 35 Senate races connected the ballot, 33 person been projected truthful acold and 20 of those went blue. Eight of them were successful states that voted for President Trump successful 2024. Voters successful 7 states flipped a antecedently Republican-held Senate spot to a Democrat.

Senate elections successful Alaska and Mississippi are inactive considered toss-ups.

But adjacent successful states wherever Republican senators won, the margins were little than mightiness person been expected. For example, successful West Virginia, Mr. Trump won successful 2024 by 42 percent points. In this year's midterms, Republican incumbent Sen. Shelly Moore Capito won by astir 20 points — the winning borderline was chopped successful half.

Alabama's Barry Moore won his Senate contention by astir 9 points successful a authorities Mr. Trump won successful 2024 by much than 30 points. In Florida, wherever Mr. Trump won by 13 points successful 2024, GOP Sen. Ashley Moody won reelection by conscionable 3 points. (The 2026 figures are arsenic of Nov. 4, with 99% of votes in.)

But the other was existent for Democratic candidates. Kamala Harris won Rhode Island successful 2024 by astir 14 points, but Sen. Jack Reed won reelection successful the 2026 midterms by 37 points.

In fact, successful states wherever Democrats won Senate races successful the 2026 midterms, mean margins were doubly arsenic ample arsenic Harris' winning margins successful the 2024 statesmanlike election.

Republicans' mean margins were fractional arsenic ample arsenic Mr. Trump's winning margins successful 2024. In states wherever voters changed sides betwixt the 2024 statesmanlike predetermination to the 2026 Senate elections, each went to Democrats, who gained astir 20 points.

Use the array beneath to look done each 2026 Senate contention compared to the 2024 statesmanlike contention margins.

John Kelly contributed to this report.

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