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Is Crawford's triumph a rebuke of Musk?
A intimately watched predetermination for a state ultimate tribunal judgeship successful Wisconsin gave Democrats a boost Tuesday night, portion two peculiar elections successful Florida delivered 2 seats to House Speaker Mike Johnson's perilously bladed GOP majority. Though off-year and peculiar elections pull a overmuch smaller stock of voters than statesmanlike elections, the outcomes successful some states held insights for Democrats and Republicans for the months ahead. Here are immoderate of the takeaways:
Wisconsin State Supreme Court race
A setback for Trump and Musk
Despite dense fiscal backing from Elon Musk and groups tied to him — implicit $20 cardinal — and an endorsement by President Trump, blimpish campaigner Brad Schimel mislaid by a 10-point borderline to Susan Crawford, the wide campaigner successful the race. Musk's infusion of millions failed to sway Wisconsin voters successful this statewide judicial race, marking a notable governmental decision successful a battleground authorities that Trump narrowly flipped successful 2024.
Crawford ran chiefly against Musk's engagement successful the authorities — and nationalist Democrats could person this triumph into an aboriginal crippled program heading into the gubernatorial races aboriginal this year, and the 2026 midterms.
Record-breaking spending of implicit $90 million
The contention became the astir costly judicial predetermination successful U.S. history, with full spending exceeding $90 cardinal and by immoderate projections, reaching $100 million. This unprecedented influx of wealth — fueled by big-dollar donors connected some sides of the contention including Elon Musk, George Soros, JB Pritzker and others, underscores the increasing nationalization and politicization of authorities judicial races and raises questions astir the power of extracurricular interests connected section races.
In the conflict of the billionaire donors waged successful this judicial race, determination was nary bigger loser than Musk, who donated $3 cardinal to the authorities GOP and groups associated with him spent much than $20 million. The efforts of the world's richest antheral besides galvanized Democratic voters successful Wisconsin to formed their ballot for Crawford according to Wisconsin Democrats.
What Tuesday could mean for Musk's aboriginal governmental spending
It volition beryllium worthy watching however overmuch the result impacts the mode Musk invests his fiscal and governmental superior betwixt present and the 2026 midterms, fixed the nonaccomplishment helium sustained successful the Wisconsin race.
With Musk's help, Republicans won the White House and Senate successful the 2024 election, portion besides maintaining power of the House. In the 2026 midterms, however, the GOP faces challenges successful its quest to clasp onto and physique connected its constrictive House majority. The involvement successful Tuesday's contention not conscionable from voters, but besides large Democratic donors, suggests a ample influx of currency is apt to beryllium invested successful some sides astatine a clip erstwhile the president's enactment is astatine hazard of dense losses amid pushback by voters.
High elector engagement
Turnout was exceptionally precocious for a outpouring predetermination and a judicial race, perchance surpassing 2.4 cardinal voters, acold exceeding the 2023 authorities ultimate tribunal race, according to CBS News estimates. This surge, coupled with Crawford's beardown show successful cardinal areas similar Dane County, indicates a beardown mobilization among Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters, driven by interest astir the policies of the caller Trump medication and absorption to Musk's involvement.
It besides suggests broader involvement from the Wisconsin electorate astir judicial independency connected issues similar termination rights and legislature redistricting.
Liberal bulk connected Wisconsin State Supreme Court retained
Crawford's triumph ensured that the Wisconsin Supreme Court maintained its 4-3 wide majority. This result preserves the ideological equilibrium of the state's highest tribunal that has been successful spot since 2023. This has already led to important rulings favoring progressive priorities, specified arsenic striking down Republican-drawn legislative maps and addressing voting rights issues.
A boost for Democrats
In speaking with nationalist Democrats aft the Wisconsin predetermination results, they accidental that the triumph has boosted Democrats nationally arsenic they contend with intraparty squabbling connected the absorption of the enactment going into the 2026 midterms. With the Badger State contention arsenic a referendum connected Musk and Trump policies, the result of Tuesday's predetermination could besides service arsenic a cautionary communicative for Republicans arsenic they hole for the 2025 gubernatorial races and 2026. To galore they saw it arsenic a referendum connected elector enthusiasm.
Trump touts elector ID win
Despite Schimel's loss, President Trump posted connected societal media to item 1 triumph for conservatives: Wisconsin voters approved a measurement to enshrine the state's elector ID request successful the authorities constitution. The law, which already mandates showing a photograph ID astatine the polls, present holds the added value of a law amendment.
Florida peculiar legislature elections
Republican victories with narrower margins
Republicans Jimmy Patronis and Randy Fine won the 1st and 6th Districts successful Florida Tuesday, respectively, maintaining GOP power of the deep-red seats vacated by Matt Gaetz and Michael Waltz. Their victories came with dramatically reduced margins compared to the 2024 wide predetermination a fewer months ago, however. Patronis defeated Gay Valimonti 57-42%, a 15-point margin, and Fine besides won his contention against Democrat Josh Weil with a 57-42% victory, a crisp driblet from Waltz's 33-point triumph successful November.
Democratic over-performance successful fundraising
Democrats outperformed expectations successful 2 deep-red Florida districts connected Tuesday, fueled by monolithic fundraising hauls that acold surpassed their Republican opponents. Weil raised much than $9 million, portion Valimont brought successful astir $6 cardinal — numbers that helped marque the races acold much competitory than anticipated. Republicans held some seats, but with notably person margins, underscoring the GOP's entrenched vantage successful these Trump strongholds.
Still, the Democratic contenders notched a symbolic triumph erstwhile Valimont carried Escambia County — a longtime GOP stronghold successful statesmanlike elections — a uncommon bluish dot successful the ruby-red district.
Trump's power tested but intact
Both Patronis and Fine benefited from Mr. Trump's endorsements and precocious run efforts, including tele-town halls and Truth Social posts, which helped unafraid their wins. Yet the closer-than-expected races, contempt the president's idiosyncratic engagement and his ain overwhelming victories successful these districts — 68% successful the 1st District and 65% successful the 6th — hint astatine imaginable governmental vulnerabilities successful his power aboriginal successful his 2nd term, particularly erstwhile Mr. Trump is not connected the ballot. The results bolstered the GOP's slim House majority, present 220-213, but the tighter margins awesome that Mr. Trump's sway whitethorn not beryllium arsenic implicit successful off-cycle elections.
Special elections for House stay a situation for the opposing party
Tuesday's results successful Florida enactment up with CBS News' political unit's analysis this week that since Mr. Trump was archetypal elected president successful 2017, a spot has flipped successful House peculiar elections little than 15% of the time.
Hunter Woodall contributed to this report.
Fin Daniel Gómez is CBS News' governmental manager and enforcement director, Politics and White House. In this role, Gómez oversees the regular White House and governmental sum for CBS News and works intimately with Washington bureau enactment to pass the Network's governmental coverage.
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