Slow development possible off the southeast US this weekend or early next week

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Tropical slump oregon tempest could gradually make this play oregon aboriginal adjacent week, but for present dense rainfall is superior threat

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We proceed to show a weakening acold beforehand present implicit the southeast U.S. that’s expected to stall implicit Florida by precocious week and could rotation disconnected a tropical slump oregon named tempest by the play oregon aboriginal adjacent week.

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As we’ve elaborate successful newsletters this week, models were initially unclear arsenic to whether the hazard of improvement would beryllium higher implicit the northeastern Gulf oregon implicit the Atlantic waters disconnected the southeast coast, but opening yesterday the trends shifted to the Atlantic and the National Hurricane Center successful crook shifted its imaginable improvement portion eastward arsenic well.

Tropical Weather Outlooks from the National Hurricane Center from Sunday (June 29th) day done 8 AM ET Thursday, July 2, 2025. Beginning Tuesday, the NHC improvement portion shifted eastward from the Gulf and present favors greater improvement chances implicit the Atlantic disconnected the southeast U.S. this play oregon aboriginal adjacent week.

The changes to the forecast, which besides hold improvement perchance into aboriginal adjacent week, don’t appreciably alteration the outcome. For now, the superior menace volition beryllium areas of dense rainfall heading into the Fourth of July and lingering done the vacation play for overmuch of Florida, particularly west-central Florida and the well-traveled I-4 corridor from Tampa to Orlando.

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Models are inactive mostly ho-hum connected development, suggesting weaker scenarios, with the anticipation of a little tropical slump oregon low-grade tropical tempest either moving inland implicit the southeast U.S. oregon loitering conscionable offshore into adjacent week.

Low-pressure tracks from the overnight runs of the European exemplary ensemble strategy (top panel) and American GFS ensemble strategy (bottom panel) done adjacent Monday (July 7th) morning. Models mostly suggest weaker scenarios, with the anticipation of a little tropical slump oregon low-grade tropical tempest moving inland implicit the southeast U.S. oregon lingering implicit occidental Atlantic waters into aboriginal adjacent week.

For now, the strategy whitethorn bring periods of disruptive upwind to outdoor vacation plans with accrued storminess and the anticipation of wide dense rainfall successful parts of Florida, but the hazard of important improvement remains low.

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