Once called the world's most popular politician, Brazil’s Lula faces plummeting approval

RIO DE JANEIRO – Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva was erstwhile called the astir fashionable person connected Earth by then-U.S. President Barack Obama. Those times are agelong gone.

Halfway done his latest four-year term, Lula's support standing has plunged down to levels ne'er earlier seen successful immoderate of this 3 administrations. Brazil's system is increasing and its unemployment is decreasing, but radical are complaining astir higher nutrient prices and crime.

Lula’s support standing has dropped to 24%, according to the country’s astir salient pollster Datafolha successful its latest February poll, which interviewed 2,007 radical crossed Brazil with a borderline of mistake of 2 percent points. That is an all-time debased crossed his clip successful bureau from 2003 to 2010, and since helium took bureau again successful 2023. The erstwhile grounds was 28% successful 2005. Surveys by different firms besides amusement a emergence successful discontent.

And successful an evident effort to claw backmost support, the authorities connected Thursday is hosting an lawsuit successful the capital, Brasilia.

“The nonsubjective is to contiguous the achievements of the Federal Government successful the archetypal 2 years,” the statesmanlike palace said successful a connection this week.

A governmental scenery of upheaval

Lula’s difficulties travel against a Brazilian governmental scenery successful upheaval, with his predecessor and bitter rival former President Jair Bolsonaro owed to basal trial connected charges that the right-wing person attempted a coup.

The plunge successful enactment besides comes arsenic Lula, 79, weighs whether to tally for re-election adjacent year.

For galore observers, the summation successful the outgo of nutrient is simply a apical crushed for Lula’s autumn successful popularity. Food and drinks were astir 8% much costly successful 2024 compared to the erstwhile year, according to Brazil's nationalist statistic agency.

Rising nutrient costs

“Food ostentation has a nonstop interaction connected people’s lives,” said Carla Beni, a prof of economics astatine Getulio Vargas Foundation, pointing particularly to the emergence of the outgo of meat, a staple of Brazilians' diet.

Beni said prices person soared owed to the interaction of clime alteration connected crops and the strengthening of the dollar against the real.

An uptick successful nutrient prices peculiarly affects the mediocre – Lula’s humanities enactment base. A canvass by backstage steadfast Genial/Quaest released Wednesday showed a surge successful disapproval among women, Black radical and successful Brazil’s poorer northeast. In six months, the percent of respondents who disapprove of Lula's medication successful the northeast jumped from 26% to 46%. And much women person a mediocre sentiment of the authorities than they bash a affirmative one.

“Not lone are things expensive, but we’re besides surviving successful a unsafe country,” said Anderson Vianna, 45, a income typical who lives Rio de Janeiro's low-income bluish zone. “If you person your telephone successful hand, you can’t relax,” added the antheral who voted for Lula successful 2002, 2006 and 2022.

To reign successful nutrient inflation, Vice President Geraldo Alckmin announced connected March 6 that the authorities would trim import taxes to zero connected a bid of products, including nutrient and coffee.

A connection problem

But the measurement does not look to person turned the public’s cognition of the government. João Feres, a governmental idiosyncratic astatine Rio de Janeiro State University, said Lula’s authorities has a myriad of nationalist policies but “the occupation is communicating the results of these policies.”

A stroke to Lula came successful January, erstwhile his authorities said it would summation oversight of fiscal transactions, including Brazil’s fashionable instant outgo strategy PIX.

That sparked a flurry of fake quality pushed by far-right politicians adjacent to Bolsonaro, who said the authorities planned to enforce a caller taxation connected PIX payments. The medication denied the accusation, but ended up backtracking connected the step.

“That was the archetypal constituent that truly damaged Lula’s image,” said Paulo Feldmann, an economist astatine the University of Sao Paulo.

Brazilians acrophobic with crime

Crime and unit are different apical concerns.

“Since the extremity of regularisation of question owed to the COVID-19 pandemic, it's successful archetypal place” successful the ranking of Brazilians' worries, said Marcos Calliari, the country's manager of pollster IPSOS.

Over the weekend, the video of an influencer inadvertently filming the infinitesimal her telephone was stolen astatine the Lollapalooza festival successful Sao Paulo went viral. Almost 1 successful 10 Brazilians had their telephone stolen betwixt July 2023 and June 2024, according to Datafolha.

Lula has sharpened his code against thieves successful caller weeks. “We volition not let criminals to instrumentality implicit our country,” helium said connected March 19.

The justness ministry is readying to nonstop a measure to Congress that would summation the maximum condemnation for receiving and benefiting from stolen cellphones from 8 to up to 12 years, it said successful a connection connected Friday.

Lula’s authorities is besides preparing a wider measure connected security.

Preparing an income taxation chopped fpr the poor

To woo backmost voters, the authorities is besides counting connected a connection to chopped taxation for the poor. Mid-March, the medication sent a measure to Congress that seeks to exempt individuals earning up to 5000 reais (around $880) per period from income tax, up from astir 2,300 reais currently.

If Congress approves the bill, observers accidental it could beryllium a large triumph for Lula, though it's uncertain whether it volition reconstruct his popularity.

With Lula struggling successful the polls and Bolsonaro barred from moving until 2030, the adjacent predetermination is overmuch much unpredictable than the erstwhile one, Beni said.

Vianna, the income representative, said helium is disappointed and is not definite helium would ballot for Lula again. “We request a renewal.”

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