No Sign of Texas Measles Outbreak Slowing, Contrary to RFK Jr.’s Claims

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On 4 abstracted occasions, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the Health and Human Services secretary, has suggested that the measles outbreak successful Texas, which is present implicit 500 cases, is opening to subside and turn much slowly. But a reappraisal of authorities information indicates there’s nary diminution yet successful the gait of cases.

During a sojourn to West Texas to be the ceremonial of an unvaccinated 8-year-old who died of measles, Kennedy said successful an April 6 post on X that since the deployment of a Centers for Disease Control and Prevention squad successful aboriginal March, “the maturation rates for caller cases and hospitalizations person flattened.”

Two days later, in Phoenix, Arizona, Kennedy repeated the claim. “Our strategy has been precise successful,” he said of dealing with the measles outbreak. “The fig continues to turn by the day, but the maturation complaint … has diminished substantially.”

In an interview CBS News released connected April 9, helium said, “the complaint of the summation has substantially decreased, truthful we are successfully controlling it.” And successful an April 10 Cabinet meeting, Kennedy again said that measles cases “have present plateaued.”

Dr. Andrew T. Pavia, an adept successful pediatric infectious diseases astatine the University of Utah, told america that Kennedy is wrong. “I don’t deliberation immoderate epidemiologists judge determination is grounds that the measles outbreak is subsiding,” helium said successful an email. “To the contrary, determination are indicators that the outbreak is larger than the fig of confirmed cases that person been reported.”

In most of his remarks, Kennedy besides made an apples-to-oranges examination with Europe, which helium incorrectly claimed presently had 127,000 measles cases and 37 deaths. His attempts to minimize the U.S. outbreak done that examination disregard that measles is endemic successful parts of Europe.

Kennedy has previously downplayed the Texas measles outbreak. Prior to becoming wellness secretary, helium was a well-known anti-vaccine advocate, and helium has shared incorrect oregon misleading accusation astir measles and the vaccine arsenic the nation’s apical wellness official. 

As of April 8, 505 measles cases person been reported in the West Texas outbreak, including 57 hospitalizations and 2 deaths, some successful unvaccinated children without underlying wellness conditions, according to the Texas Department of State Health Services. Almost each of the cases — 98% — person been successful radical who are unvaccinated oregon person an chartless vaccination status. The Texas outbreak also seeded oregon is thought to person seeded outbreaks successful New Mexico, Oklahoma and Kansas.

Texas Outbreak Poised for Further Growth

It’s unclear what accusation Kennedy mightiness person been utilizing to marque his assertion that the Texas outbreak is not increasing arsenic rapidly arsenic it erstwhile was. HHS did not respond to our question asking astir however helium had calculated his maturation rates.

Once determination are less susceptible radical to prolong the outbreak astatine its existent clip — either from radical gaining immunity by getting vaccinated oregon falling sick — the outbreak volition statesman to slow. But determination isn’t grounds of a diminution successful cases yet.

We plotted the cumulative reported measles cases successful the Texas outbreak implicit time, both by rash onset and by the dates erstwhile lawsuit and hospitalizations were announced by authorities wellness officials. Both graphs amusement a steady, linear emergence of cases since aboriginal successful the outbreak. Hospitalizations amusement a akin trend. There is nary evident alteration successful the complaint of either cases oregon hospitalizations. (We besides plotted the CDC’s national measles lawsuit numbers, announced weekly, but we didn’t spot a diminution successful those figures, either.)

Between March 21 and April 4, measles cases announced by the authorities grew by 56%. In the anterior 2 weeks, the lawsuit maturation complaint was the aforesaid — 56%.

“The graphs intelligibly don’t amusement flattening,” Pavia said.

The Texas wellness section did not remark specifically connected Kennedy’s claim, but told america successful an email that to “make it easier for radical to recognize the people of the outbreak,” the section had included “an epidemic curve” connected its dashboard and added accusation astir the alteration successful lawsuit counts for each of its updates. 

The state’s epidemic curve, which is organized by rash onset and is what we utilized to make the 2nd graph, notes that further cases whitethorn inactive beryllium reported for dates 3 weeks anterior and that radical with measles “are contagious from 4 days earlier rash onset to 4 days after.”

Pavia said it takes astir 12 to 14 days aft an vulnerability for a rash to appear, which is usually erstwhile investigating occurs. Those results tin instrumentality different 1 to 2 days to travel back, with much clip to update the numbers. “We ever spot smaller numbers successful the existent 1-2 weeks due to the fact that of diagnostic and reporting delays,” helium said.

Other experts have also objected to Kennedy’s characterization of the outbreak maturation complaint and the wide conception that the Texas outbreak is nether control. Measles is 1 of the astir contagious diseases and infects astir 90% of radical who are exposed and deficiency immunity, according to the CDC.

“I don’t know, a 26% summation successful a week … that’s not flattening,” Dr. Peter Marks, the Food and Drug Administration’s erstwhile apical vaccine regulator, told STAT News, aft Kennedy made the archetypal of his statements. “It’s a mode of trying to alteration interest that could perchance support this outbreak going.” Marks has said helium was recently forced to resign from his presumption aft unit from Kennedy.

“This outbreak is acold from nether power — adjacent if the curve begins to flatten, we inactive look large risks successful under-vaccinated communities crossed the country,” John Brownstein, an epidemiologist astatine Harvard Medical School and ABC News contributor, told the quality outlet. “With truthful galore pockets of debased vaccination, we’re inactive connected the brink of widespread, sustained transmission unless urgent enactment is taken.”

One concern is that the Texas outbreak whitethorn beryllium overmuch larger than it appears, owed to a deficiency of testing. Measles has also begun to circulate in the metropolis of Lubbock, a much densely populated country of West Texas, concerning wellness officials.

On April 8, Lubbock’s nationalist wellness director, Katherine Wells, cautioned successful a property league that cases could grow arsenic determination are much opportunities for the microorganism to spread. “It conscionable gets overmuch bigger, overmuch quicker successful these municipality areas,” she said, according to STAT.

Public wellness officials expect that outpouring interruption question could summation cases and person antecedently said the Texas outbreak could past for a year, arsenic the Texas Tribune reported. If continued transmission lasts much than a year, the U.S. volition suffer its measles elimination status.

On April 7, the Texas wellness department updated its database of counties it designates arsenic portion of the outbreak area. The database present includes 10 counties — 5 caller ones, including Lubbock, with 1 removed, since early March — that the authorities says “have ongoing transmission of measles.”

In those areas, children are recommended to person a dose of the measles, mumps and rubella, oregon MMR vaccine, earlier, starting astatine 6 months aged alternatively than 12 months, with a 2nd dose besides moved up if a kid has not yet turned 4, erstwhile a 2nd dose is usually archetypal recommended. Two doses are 97% effective successful preventing measles, portion 1 is 93% effective, according to the CDC.

Misleading Comparison with Europe

Kennedy besides repeatedly made a misleading examination with Europe.

“I would comparison it to what’s happening successful Europe now,” helium said successful Arizona, just after saying that the Texas outbreak maturation complaint has “diminished substantially.” He continued: “We’ve had 640 cases here. They’ve had 127,000 cases and 37 deaths. And truthful what we’re doing present successful the United States is simply a exemplary for the remainder of the world.”

In the CBS interview, which was recorded on April 8, but not released until the adjacent day, Kennedy recited the aforesaid figures, adding that determination volition ever beryllium measles cases “because the vaccine wanes precise quickly.” (As we’ve written, vaccine waning is not a cardinal crushed wherefore outbreaks hap — it’s due to the fact that not capable radical are vaccinated.)

“The CDC has done an astonishing occupation astatine getting the measles outbreak nether control,” Kennedy besides said successful the Cabinet meeting. “We person astir 680 cases present successful 22 states, compared to the aforesaid outbreak successful Europe, which is 127,000 cases and 37 deaths.”

In mid-March, the WHO issued a press release with akin figures (127,350 cases and 38 deaths). But the numbers are really for each of past year, and use to the WHO’s European region, which is composed of 53 countries successful Europe and Central Asia. It’s a immense country that stretches from the Atlantic to the Pacific Oceans and includes places specified arsenic Kyrgyzstan and Romania, wherever measles is especially common, arsenic good arsenic nine different nations wherever measles is endemic.

“It is simply a spot similar saying we are doing good compared to measles successful Africa,” Pavia said.

The WHO merchandise notes that the 2024 measles cases were the highest successful much than 25 years, and attributed the summation to lowered vaccination rates. In that respect, the concern is similar, arsenic lowered vaccine sum successful the U.S. is what allows for sustained outbreaks to occur. But the superior crushed wherefore determination are truthful galore less measles cases successful the U.S. is due to the fact that the state already successfully eliminated the illness done wide vaccination.

Since becoming wellness secretary, Kennedy has at times noted immoderate benefits of vaccination. In the aforesaid X station successful which helium archetypal made his assertion astir the outbreak slowing, Kennedy wrote, “The astir effectual mode to forestall the dispersed of measles is the MMR vaccine.” And successful the CBS interview, Kennedy made his clearest endorsement to date, saying, “We promote radical to get the measles vaccine,” aft being pressed to bash so.

Despite Kennedy’s usage of the words “we encourage,” parts of the interrogation were devoted to Kennedy’s claims of inadequate information investigating of vaccines and the unsupported thought that the astir caller kid to dice of the measles didn’t dice of the disease. He inactive has not said the MMR vaccine is harmless and did not notation the proposal that children successful outbreak areas get vaccinated aboriginal to support themselves.

Hours aft his April 6 X post, helium praised 2 Texas physicians successful another post for utilizing unsupported treatments for measles, calling them “two bonzer healers … who person treated and healed immoderate 300 measles-stricken Mennonite children utilizing aerosolized budesonide and clarithromycin.”

Pointing to his archetypal April 6 X station and his Fox News editorial, Vianca N. Rodriguez Feliciano, HHS property secretary, told america that Kennedy “has advocated for the usage of the MMR vaccine” and “has responded with wide guidance that vaccines are the astir effectual mode to forestall measles.”

She besides said that Dr. James Campbell, “a notable pediatric infectious illness professor,” told CBS News that budesonide and clarithromycin “can beryllium utilized to assistance dainty respiratory illnesses and bacterial coinfections, respectively, which would beryllium considered symptomatic management.”

Similar to what we explained when we archetypal addressed Kennedy’s claims astir those drugs, Campbell did accidental that the medicines mightiness beryllium utilized successful definite circumstances erstwhile idiosyncratic has a measles infection. But helium emphasized that determination was nary grounds supporting their regular usage successful children with measles.

“These choices should beryllium made connected an idiosyncratic ground by the doctors, not arsenic sweeping recommendations for each children with measles,” helium said successful the cited story.

“In 2025, we should not person to dainty measles successful the US due to the fact that it is wholly preventable,” Campbell besides said, adding that “for those who bash get measles, rigorous studies, and not anecdotal reports, volition assistance america to amended dainty them.”

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