Microsoft still has a massive Windows 10 problem - and there's no easy way out

Like each mentation of Windows successful the modern era, Windows 10 adheres to a 10-year enactment lifecycle. That means astir Windows 10 editions -- Home, Pro, Pro Workstation, Enterprise, and Education -- volition scope their end-of-support day connected Oct. 14, 2025. (For the nerdy details connected however that day is calculated, see "When volition Microsoft extremity enactment for your mentation of Windows oregon Office?")

So, what happens erstwhile that time arrives? Nothing. Seriously, perfectly thing happens connected that date. PCs moving Windows 10 volition proceed to enactment conscionable arsenic they ever have, and they volition bash truthful indefinitely.

Also: Windows 10 PC can't beryllium upgraded? You person 5 options and 6 months to instrumentality action

From that day forward, however, those PCs volition nary longer person information fixes done Windows Update unless their owners pay Microsoft for an Extended Security Updates (ESU) subscription. On Windows 10 PCs without an ESU subscription, immoderate information flaws recovered from that time guardant volition stay unpatched, making those PCs progressively susceptible to online attacks.

There is astatine slightest 1 objection to this cutoff date, which applies to PCs moving Windows 10 Enterprise Long Term Servicing editions. In all, Microsoft has released 4 of these editions. The 2015 Long Term Servicing Branch (LTSB) ends enactment connected Oct. 14, 2025, on with the editions described earlier. The 2016 LTSB merchandise ends enactment a twelvemonth later, connected Oct. 13, 2026. Beginning successful 2019, the sanction changed to Long Term Servicing Channel (LTSC). For Windows 10 Enterprise LTSC 2019, the extremity day is Jan. 9, 2029.

Confusingly, Windows 10 Enterprise LTSC 2021 has lone a five-year enactment lifecycle, which means it ends enactment connected Jan. 12, 2027.

If anyone tells you they cognize the reply to this one, possibly halt listening to them?

Microsoft tin astir apt marque a coagulated estimation based connected its telemetry, but the remainder of america are forced to conjecture based connected fragmentary third-party metrics.

Also: There's a quiescent PC roar happening - acknowledgment to Windows 10 and the tariffs

One of the sources I person relied connected implicit the years is the US government's Digital Analytics Program (DAP), which has a well-organized repository of accusation astir postulation to authoritative websites tally by agencies similar the Postal Service, the National Institutes of Health, the National Weather Service, the IRS, and NASA.

I've been checking that root regularly implicit the past fewer years. When I visited DAP astatine the opening of April 2025, I retrieved 90 days' worthy of data, covering billions of visits to those websites from radical utilizing Windows computers, Macs, and mobile devices from each astir the world. Here's what the information told maine erstwhile I filtered it to amusement lone visits from PCs moving Windows 10 and Windows 11:

That's the existent question, isn't it?

Despite predictions of the imminent demise of the PC market, OEMs proceed to merchantability much than 200 cardinal caller Windows computers each year. The astir optimistic script is that each 1 of those caller PCs sold successful the adjacent twelvemonth replaces a Windows 10 instrumentality that is past retired, with different 100 cardinal oregon truthful older PCs replaced by Chromebooks, iPads, and Macs. Maybe immoderate aged PCs are simply enactment retired to pasture and not replaced astatine all, arsenic consumers determine to usage their phones oregon tablets instead. The imaginable of ample tariffs connected PCs manufactured successful China and sold successful the US complicates the equation considerably.

Also: Can't discontinue Windows 10? You tin wage Microsoft for updates aft October, oregon effort these alternatives

If the displacement to Windows 11 continues astatine its existent rate, arsenic measured by the DAP data, astir 35% of PCs volition inactive beryllium moving Windows 10 successful October 2025. That adds up to much than 500 cardinal PCs that volition beryllium moving an outdated, unsupported operating strategy astatine the extremity of the year.

I fishy that gait volition accelerate significantly, particularly successful endeavor deployments that person been readying for this modulation for the past fewer years and volition beryllium executing connected those plans earlier the extremity of 2025. Even astatine that accelerated pace, though, it volition inactive mean hundreds of millions of PCs volition beryllium moving Windows 10 erstwhile the end-of-support day rolls around. Yikes.

Who owns those PCs?

• Those who don't suffice for an automatic upgrade. Some radical ain older hardware that doesn't conscionable the minimum hardware compatibility standards for Windows 11. Basically, that means immoderate PC that was designed successful 2018 oregon earlier. Note that this class includes galore fund PCs that utilized older designs and unsupported CPUs but were sold arsenic caller successful 2019 and 2020.
• Corporate PCs that are standardized connected Windows 10. A nontrivial fig of endeavor IT managers aren't acceptable to spell done a wholesale Windows 11 migration. Many of them volition usage the mean upgrade rhythm to execute that migration implicit time, and they person the enactment to wage for Windows 10 upgrades for up to 3 years aft the end-of-support date.
• Windows 10 diehards. From my clip spent speechmaking enactment forums, I cognize there's a ample colonisation of longtime Windows users who are unhappy astir the changes successful Windows 11. Some of them volition reluctantly upgrade, but others won't.

I cognize immoderate radical are convinced this is simply a possibility, and there's precedent for it successful the acquisition of Windows XP, which ended enactment successful April 2014, much than 12 years aft it was archetypal released. Windows XP users adjacent received exigency information updates good aft that authoritative extremity date, to code the WannaCry vulnerability in 2017 and a akin flaw successful 2019. Likewise, Microsoft issued exigency information updates for Windows 7 successful 2021 after its enactment had officially ended.

Of course, successful some cases, the customers moving the soon-to-be-obsolete Windows mentation had the enactment to upgrade to a caller version. Indeed, that's the proposal from Microsoft's official Product End of Support page:

Once a merchandise reaches the extremity of support, oregon a work retires, determination volition beryllium nary caller information updates, non-security updates, oregon assisted support. Customers are encouraged to migrate to the latest mentation of the merchandise oregon service.

Also: Can you inactive get a Windows 10 upgrade for escaped successful 2025? Short answer: Maybe

For Windows 10, though, that alternate mightiness not beryllium available. Devices that don't conscionable the hardware compatibility requirements volition person nary Microsoft-supported migration way to a newer version. As I pointed out the past clip I looked astatine this issue, the owners of those perfectly functional PCs -- immoderate lone 5 oregon six years aged -- volition alternatively person the pursuing options:

• Install a non-Microsoft operating system. Maybe 2026 volition beryllium the twelvemonth erstwhile desktop Linux yet takes hold, though that's unlikely. ChromeOS Flex mightiness beryllium different option, but it has its own hardware compatibility requirements that astir apt marque it unsuitable for older hardware.
• Ignore Microsoft's warnings and upgrade to Windows 11 anyway. There are options to install Windows 11 connected "incompatible" hardware, but they necessitate a just magnitude of method experience. People who are clinging to aged PCs due to the fact that they can't spend a caller 1 apt don't person those specialized skills and whitethorn not adjacent recognize that the enactment is available. I uncertainty that galore businesses would beryllium consenting to hazard the enactment issues that travel with that approach.
• Keep moving Windows 10 and anticipation for the best. History suggests that this is the astir apt option.

Nothing successful the company's behaviour implicit the past twelvemonth suggests they person immoderate plans to widen the enactment deadline for Windows 10.

Microsoft and its OEM partners would similar that the owners of those devices dump them successful a landfill and bargain a caller PC moving Windows 11. However, my acquisition with PC owners, particularly older radical connected a fixed income, is that they volition usage those devices until they halt working. Those PCs volition beryllium sitting ducks for a cyberattack like WannaCry, which was brutally effectual against the ample colonisation of Windows 7 PCs that were inactive successful usage 3 years aft its enactment ended.

That incidental was a PR nightmare for Microsoft, and a repetition would beryllium adjacent much devastating to the company's reputation. That's wherefore Microsoft has offered paid options to widen enactment for Windows 10 by 3 years. Customers successful endeavor and acquisition deployments are apt to instrumentality vantage of those options.

Consumers person the enactment to wage for updates for a year. I foretell that fewer volition bash so. After that? Well, you're connected your own.