Linux will be unstoppable in 2026 - but one open-source legend may not survive

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ZDNET's cardinal takeaways

• The Linux desktop volition proceed to grow.
• Linux and open-source information volition some improve.
• Firefox is successful deep, heavy trouble.

Clearly, AI volition play a larger relation successful Linux and unfastened root adjacent year, but that's existent of beauteous overmuch each technology. However, portion AI volition beryllium utilized to assistance make the Linux kernel, nary 1 is predicting, a la Windows, that AI volition beryllium utilized to rewrite the full codebase by 2030. That said, unfastened root volition stay astatine the bosom of AI.

The continued emergence of the Linux desktop

For Linux, I spot much desktop distributions aimed astatine ex-Windows users. As a result, the Linux desktop, which has already been increasing faster than ever, volition proceed to turn adjacent faster. Microsoft is helping by continuing to propulsion AI down Windows users' throats. Attention Satya Nadella, Microsoft's CEO: Windows fans don't privation AI. Sure, immoderate do. Most, however, don't.

In addition, arsenic my workfellow connected the Windows broadside of life, Ed Bott, points out, Microsoft's existent people toward much restrictions connected which applications Windows tin run, and a monthly subscription exemplary for Windows, is astir definite to disillusion adjacent hardcore Windows users.

Also: My 11 favourite Linux distributions of each time, ranked

All this means Linux's accidental for maturation volition lone proceed to grow. Now, we'll spot if Linux tin instrumentality vantage of its caller chances. You see, arsenic Linus Torvalds himself pointed retired agelong ago, we person too galore Linux desktops.

Imagine yourself astatine a market store successful different country, and you privation a caller meal cereal. You're presented with implicit a 100 antithetic boxes, and you don't cognize a happening astir immoderate of them. How volition you decide? Or volition you conscionable propulsion up your hands and bid Windows 12 via Amazon from backmost location due to the fact that you can't marque heads oregon tails of each the section cereals?

It's the aforesaid with Linux. If you spell to DistroWatch, you'll find implicit a 100 desktops. I can't archer them each apart, and I screen this worldly for a living. We request a distro to measurement guardant to go the apical choice.

That has ne'er happened due to the fact that each Linux organisation shaper thinks their mode is the champion way. The person you look, the much differences you'll find betwixt the distros. For example, determination are much than fractional a twelve viable Linux desktop interfaces specified arsenic KDE Plasma, GNOME, Cinnamon, etc.

I person immoderate ideas connected however to code this issue, but that's a communicative for different day. For now, adjacent though determination are inactive excessively galore Linux desktops, the Linux desktop volition proceed to grow.

Rust becomes 'normal' successful kernel and halfway tools

Earlier this month, Linux kernel developers formally ended the "Rust experiement," declaring Rust a imperishable halfway connection for Linux. Indeed, the Direct Rendering Manager (DRM) graphics maintainers are already talking astir requiring Rust for caller drivers wrong astir a year.

Even before, the Debian Linux developers had decided that, by May 2026, each further development of its halfway APT bundle manager would beryllium done successful Rust. Why? Because Rust is representation safe. This stops successful their tracks galore kinds of information problems that C, Linux's main language, has proven each excessively prone to implicit the decades.

Don't think, however, that it's each peaches and pick present for Rust connected Linux. 

Also: Rust turns 10: How a breached elevator changed bundle forever

As Miguel Ojeda, person of the Rust for Linux project, has said, "Rust is present to stay, ... this does not mean that everything works for each kernel configuration, architecture, toolchain, etc." 

There's inactive a batch of enactment to beryllium done. That said, Ojeda besides noted that Android 16 devices based connected the 6.12 Linux kernel see the caller Rust-based anonymous shared representation allocator (ashmem). That means millions of devices are already utilizing Rust for Linux successful production. Rust is here. Rust is real. And Rust is already astatine work.

However, dissimilar Microsoft, which appears to program to determination each of Windows to Rust by 2030, determination are nary specified plans for Linux. Someday, each of Linux whitethorn beryllium written successful Rust, but I can't spot it happening until the 2050s, and possibly not adjacent then. After all, for axenic performance, abbreviated of penning codification successful assembler, nothing's faster than C.

Oh, and for Windows' Rust plans? Good luck with converting that messiness of a codebase into Rust successful 4 years. Fourteen? Maybe.

Immutable Linux goes mainstream

Immutable Linux distributions are gaining traction due to the fact that read-only strategy images, atomic updates, and transactional bundle layers importantly simplify rollback and trim "dependency hell." Analysts are explicitly framing immutability arsenic a "new epoch of information and stability."

Also: 5 reasons to power to an immutable Linux distro contiguous - and which to effort first

Now, immutable Linux distros, specified arsenic Fedora Silverblue, OpenSUSE MicroOS, and Ubuntu Core, person been astir for a while. Previously, though, lone Linux enthusiasts utilized them successful containers. Enterprise Linux is present switching to them.

The starring example of an immutable concern is the caller Red Hat Enterprise Linux (RHEL) 10. While you tin inactive usage the aged tools to support RHEL, you present person the prime of going the immutable route. As clip goes on, I expect much endeavor distributions to travel this trend. It's overmuch easier to manage.

Security and supply-chain hardening crossed the stack

Some inherent changes, specified arsenic Rust's integration into Linux, are guaranteed to marque Linux much secure. 

Linux and unfastened root are besides connected way to go much unafraid successful 2026, arsenic the ecosystem simultaneously hardens the kernel, professionalizes supply-chain defenses, and scales coordinated information programs similar the Open Source Security Foundation (OpenSSF) crossed vendors and governments.

Starting with Linux, the Kernel Self-Protection Project and akin efforts are pushing much exploit-mitigation features upstream. Simultaneously, risk-based patching and AI-assisted triage are making it easier to prioritize and deploy fixes astatine scale.

Also: Immutable Linux delivers superior information - present are your 5 champion options

At the aforesaid time, open-source supply-chain attacks person driven wide adoption of Software Bill of Materials (SBOMs), Supply Chain Levels for Software Artifacts (SLSA), and signed provenance. 

Sigstore is present integrated into large platforms similar GitHub and GitLab, which volition marque verifiable signing regular by 2026. That's important because, much than ever, developers request to cognize what's really successful immoderate fixed programme and who truly wrote it.

It's not just, by the way, that this conscionable makes bully information sense. In Europe, with the EU Cyber Resilience Act (CRA) present successful force, it's the law. The CRA requires anyone, by the extremity of adjacent year, who sells immoderate merchandise containing software, including open-source programs, to person an SBOM. Period. End of statement.

Open root becomes indispensable for AI agents

Last year, implicit successful AI land, everyone was talking astir however 2025 would beryllium the twelvemonth of Agentic AI. Leading the hype battalion was OpenAI laminitis Sam Altman, who said, "In 2025, we whitethorn spot the archetypal AI agents articulation the workforce and materially alteration the output of companies." He was wrong. Agents aren't acceptable yet.

Also: Why AI agents failed to instrumentality implicit successful 2025 - it's 'a communicative arsenic aged arsenic time,' says Deloitte

If AI agents are truly going to beryllium each that -- and I'm not convinced they volition beryllium -- it volition beryllium due to the fact that of the open-standard Agentic AI Foundation (AAIF). This new, unfastened standards industry-backed consortium gets beauteous overmuch everyone who's anyone successful AI agents connected the aforesaid leafage for sharing information and making interactions casual for agents. Without interoperability, agents volition spell nowhere.

Firefox falls

I started this communicative by mentioning however radical are annoyed with Microsoft for forcing AI connected its users. Their atrocious temper is thing -- thing -- compared to however Firefox users are reacting to Mozilla pushing AI into their favourite browser.

When Mozilla declared that AI would beryllium Firefox's future, its users rapidly said, and I punctuation from the Mozilla Connect list, "Once again, Mozilla is SPRINTING to pursuit aft the stupidest tech-brained trends and not really focused connected improving the merchandise astatine all." 

This was followed up by comments specified arsenic "Stop chasing slop and really enactment connected making definite your browser competes with Chromium successful REAL areas similar velocity and functionality, not successful integer hallucinations." And 1 I particularly liked: "I would LOVE a relation that helps maine region AI slop from my mundane browser. I would truly promote Mozilla to make this."

Mozilla backed disconnected quickly. 

Also: Why I'm deleting Firefox for bully - and which browser's ne'er fto maine down

On Mastodon, Mozilla retreated to "Firefox volition person an enactment to wholly disable each AI features. We've been calling it the AI termination power internally. I'm definite it'll vessel with a little murderous name, but that's however earnestly and perfectly we're taking this."

I deliberation the harm has already been done. As I've been saying for years, Firefox has been declining. 

The radical successful complaint of the task support chasing 1 caller tech craze aft another, specified arsenic concisely accepting cryptocurrency donations and Firefox Hello, a built-in WebRTC video and dependable calling feature, portion abandoning fashionable features specified arsenic built-in RSS enactment (Live Bookmarks) and bequest add-ons/XUL extensions. 

Mozilla has besides pursued specified monolithic projects arsenic its ain instrumentality operating system, Firefox OS; a Virtual Private Network (VPN); and Mozilla Monitor Plus, a paid data-broker scan and removal service. What Mozilla hasn't been doing, galore Firefox users person complained, is improving Firefox's performance.

Also: I've tried astir each browser retired determination and these are my apical 4 (spoiler: nary are Chrome)

The effect has been that Firefox's popularity has been sinking into irrelevance for years. Over the past 90 days, Firefox's marketplace stock has sunk successful the US to a specified 1.7%. At 1 time, Firefox had a 34.1% marketplace share. It volition ne'er spot those numbers again. I fear, by this clip adjacent year, acknowledgment to however annoyed its astir loyal users are, it volition driblet beneath 1%.

Firefox was erstwhile 1 of unfastened source's top occurrence stories. Now, its time is astir done.

Well, it couldn't each beryllium large days ahead, could it? Still, taken each successful all-in-all, I expect 2026 to beryllium a banner twelvemonth for some Linux and open-source software.