Florida to consider new House map to give GOP potential 24-4 advantage

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The Florida Legislature is convening Tuesday to reappraisal a caller legislature representation projected by Gov. Ron DeSantis successful an effort to nett Republicans up to 4 caller seats successful the latest tit-for-tat successful the redistricting wars up of the 2026 midterm elections.

Florida is presently represented by 20 Republicans and 7 Democrats, with 1 spot vacant aft Democratic Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick resigned past week. DeSantis' projected representation aims to destruct oregon shrink Democratic-leaning districts successful Tampa, Orlando and parts of the state's southeast coast.

Should this representation pass, Democratic Representatives Jared Moskowitz, Lois Frankel, Debbie Wasserman Schultz, Kathy Castor and Darren Soto are each apt to tally successful caller districts, immoderate of which would person shifted to beryllium much favorable for Republicans.

"The practice for Florida Democrats volition intelligibly beryllium diminished wrong the authorities — astatine slightest that's the intention" said University of Florida governmental subject prof Michael McDonald. "Already it's diminished beneath what a just representation would beryllium for the authorities of Florida."

Florida is apt the past authorities to redraw its legislature representation for the 2026 midterm elections aft President Trump kicked disconnected the mid-decade redistricting scramble successful Texas past twelvemonth to nett much seats for the GOP.

If the Florida Legislature approves the caller representation and it isn't successfully challenged successful court, the scorecard successful the redistricting wars could extremity toward Republicans — though nary seats are guaranteed for either party.

McDonald, who has served arsenic a advisor to commissions and legislatures passim the state connected redistricting, noted that helium did not judge each 4 of these districts volition beryllium won by Republicans.

"Most generously, I would accidental possibly 3 districts due to the fact that there's 1 that's highly competitive, if not Democratic — inactive Democratic-leaning connected immoderate measures," McDonald said.

Republicans person a bulk successful the Florida Legislature, and the State House Speaker Daniel Perez said astatine the commencement of the league that helium hopes to bring the projected representation for a ballot connected Wednesday. But the caller representation faces important ineligible hurdles since the authorities has a law, the "Fair Districts" amendment, that bans partisan gerrymandering. However, DeSantis has appointed six of the 7 existent justices connected Florida's Supreme Court, making immoderate palmy challenges hard for Democrats.

DeSantis gave the representation to Fox first, which included color-coded districts representing their expected governmental lean.

DeSantis told Fox that this mid-decade redraw is needed due to the fact that of an undercount of Florida from the 2020 census. DeSantis and Florida Attorney General James Uthmeier cited that arsenic the crushed for opening their calls past August for a mid-decade redraw.

In a missive sent by DeSantis' wide counsel David Axelman to legislative leaders connected Monday, helium criticized the 2010 Fair Districts Amendments race-based requirements and utilized that arsenic a crushed for new, "race-neutral presumption districts" successful southeast Florida. Axelman besides pointed to colonisation maturation successful Tampa, Orlando and northbound of Palm Beach County.

"While inactive based connected 2020 census data, the projected representation nevertheless attempts to relationship for these melodramatic colonisation changes by reconfiguring districts astir the areas of precocious growth," Axelman wrote.

Democratic Rep. Soto's territory successful cardinal Florida, a bulk Hispanic district, is presently protected nether Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act, though the Supreme Court has a pending determination that could perchance onslaught down that provision.

House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries connected Monday criticized the caller map, specifically pointing to the Fair Districts Amendment and the changes to Soto's district.

Jeffries said SeSantis is "going to effort to bully the legislature to enact a representation that intelligibly violates the Florida State Constitution, and by the way, due to the fact that it goes aft communities of colour successful South Florida and successful Central Florida besides violates the 14th Amendment to the United States Constitution."

Getting this representation passed rapidly done the legislature successful Tallahassee during this peculiar league and past surviving ineligible challenges is imperative for Republicans, since ballots get mailed retired to overseas and uniformed Florida voters arsenic soon arsenic July 4 for the Aug. 18 primary.

The peculiar league successful Tallahassee runs done Friday, May 1.

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