Bryan Norcross: Watching for development over or near Florida

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Updated astatine 10 a.m. ET connected Tuesday, July 1, 2025

A acold beforehand moving done the mid-South contiguous looks apt to stall and weaken crossed South Georgia oregon North Florida precocious successful the week. The assorted machine forecast models hold that a low-pressure strategy volition signifier on that aged front. 

The statement contiguous is that it volition hap disconnected the Southeast coast, but the determination has been jumping around. No substance wherever the low-pressure halfway mightiness develop, however, stormy upwind with dense rainfall volition screen a wide swath of the region.

FLORIDA BRACES FOR HEAVY RAIN, STORMS AHEAD OF 4TH OF JULY HOLIDAY AS TROPICAL TROUBLE LOOMS OFF SOUTHEAST

This graphic shows the tropical improvement chances disconnected the Southeast seashore implicit the adjacent week.

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This script precise often happens successful June erstwhile fronts from the northbound conscionable tropical aerial from the south. The wind displacement crossed the beforehand on with a leftover upper-level disturbance that pushed the beforehand southbound successful the archetypal spot tin go triggers for the improvement of a low-pressure system.

The National Hurricane Center is coating a wide imaginable improvement country from the northwestern Gulf crossed Florida and into the Atlantic owed to the uncertainty successful wherever the strategy volition travel together, if it does. They are giving the strategy debased likelihood of processing astatine this point, but we've seen June storms rotation up from aged fronts rather often, truthful attraction is warranted.

There is nary denotation that a beardown tempest would develop, and astir apt periods of dense rainfall volition beryllium the astir noticeable effect, based connected what we cognize now. Steering currents are forecast to beryllium light, truthful the strategy and its accompanying rainy signifier look apt to linger done the play crossed overmuch of Florida.

Meanwhile, the tropical Atlantic is closed for business. Hostile conditions proceed from Africa to the Caribbean and into the confederate Gulf.

This graphic shows the tropical tempest watches and warnings for Hurricane Flossie.

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HURRICANE FLOSSIE FORMS IN EASTERN PACIFIC AS MEXICO FACES THREATS OF FLOODING RAIN, MUDSLIDES

In the Pacific, Hurricane Flossie is connected a way offshore of the southwestern Mexican coast. Fringe effects volition interaction land, however, truthful Tropical Storm Warnings are successful effect northbound and southbound of Manzanillo. Flossie looks apt to weaken and determination retired to oversea opening tomorrow.

Former Flossie

A broadside note: In 1978, Flossie was an Atlantic name. It was cranking successful the mediate of the water connected Labor Day that year. Nobody was disposable astatine the TV presumption to bash the upwind that nighttime due to the fact that of the Jerry Lewis Telethon that had been connected each day. The upwind squad covered the section portion of the event. So I pressed myself into work to grip the evening upwind – I was the boss, the quality director, astatine that time. Here’s my first-ever weathercast connected WLKY-TV successful Louisville, Kentucky. Hurricane Flossie comes up astir 1:30 in.