Bryan Norcross: Tropical pause underway but hints of more active second half of hurricane season

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Updated astatine 9:30 a.m. ET connected Thursday, Aug. 28, 2025

A hostile pall is descending implicit the tropics, which should bounds immoderate important improvement for the adjacent week oregon 2 oregon so. Dust and adust air, an unsupportive upper-wind authorities and higher-than-normal aerial unit implicit the tropical loop should bounds improvement betwixt Africa and the Caribbean.

The National Hurricane Center is coating a low-probability imaginable improvement country for a disturbance forecast to determination disconnected the African seashore precocious successful the weekend. It’s going to person pugnacious sledding erstwhile it’s implicit the water but could conceivably find a conducive capable spot of ambiance to go a tropical depression. There is nary denotation of it threatening onshore astatine this point.

So systems tin rotation up successful this benignant of environment, but it's not apt to beryllium connected a threatening way from the tropical Atlantic until the signifier shifts.

This graphic provides an overview of the tropical Atlantic Basin.

(National Hurricane Center / FOX Weather)

Besides the strategy that volition determination disconnected Africa, the beardown acold beforehand pushing done the southbound and stalling implicit Florida could beryllium a root of improvement disconnected the Southeast seashore adjacent week. And, arsenic always, non-tropical systems tin ever instrumentality connected immoderate tropical characteristics implicit the unfastened ocean. But this clip of year, the country of interest is the tropical Atlantic. That's wherever the large storms usually travel from.

Recall that past year, the tropics unopen down wholly for much than 3 weeks earlier storms came roaring back. This year, the upwind signifier is different, and the water is not arsenic warm, but a akin pause, oregon astatine slightest slowdown, successful the usually engaged portion of the play looks likely.

This graphic shows erstwhile the highest tropical enactment successful the Atlantic typically occurs.

(National Hurricane Center / FOX Weather)

The day successful the hurricane play when, historically speaking, we are astir apt to person a named tempest progressive is Sept. 10. The National Hurricane Center calculates the likelihood by looking astatine each the tropical storms and hurricanes betwixt 1944 and 2020. The twelvemonth 1944 was chosen arsenic a starting constituent due to the fact that that's erstwhile craft were routinely flown into storms, truthful we person much assurance that we cognize however beardown they were.

So adjacent though Sept. 10 is not the mediate of the play connected the calendar, it's a tenable constituent to absorption on. And conscionable similar past year, based connected what we cognize now, the 2nd portion of the hurricane play looks to beryllium busier than we’ve seen truthful far.

For 1 thing, the cyclical signifier called the MJO that enhances and suppresses tropical enactment is forecast to beryllium successful the enhancing signifier opening astir the mediate of September, though however beardown it volition beryllium isn’t clear. In addition, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center is present forecasting accrued likelihood of La Niña processing for the past portion of the season. Recall that La Niña tends to induce a signifier of upper-level winds that is much conducive to tempest development.

There's thing to bash with immoderate of this now, of course, but to discontinue reasoning that hurricane play is over. As past twelvemonth proved, it's not implicit until it's over.

Tropical Storm Fernand is over. Its remnants are tracking implicit chilly h2o successful the North Atlantic. 

Tonight astatine 8:30 p.m. ET, we’ll aerial the last occurrence of our bid Katrina’s Wrath: 20 Years Later. Part 4 is titled 20 Years Forward. 

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Tonight astatine 8:30 p.m. ET, we’ll aerial the last occurrence of our bid Katrina’s Wrath: 20 Years Later. Part 4 is titled 20 Years Forward. We’ll look astatine wherever things basal now. Tonight connected FOX Weather. If you’re not definite however to watch, spell to FOXWeather.TV, and find retired however to ticker for escaped connected your TV, tablet, machine oregon phone.