Bryan Norcross: Tropical depression is struggling but Bertha is still forecast to develop in the Northern Gulf

Last updated astatine 9:15 a.m. connected Monday, July 20, 2026

Tropical Depression Two has a wide circulation with clusters of dense thunderstorms, but it's infused with adust air. The wide situation is little conducive to organizing and strengthening today, but the moderately hostile precocious winds inactive mightiness abate capable for the strategy to rotation up into Tropical Storm Bertha. So far, the sustained winds are little than 40 mph.

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Satellite representation of Tropical Depression Two.

(CIRA  / FOX Weather)

Rain bands rotating astir the sprawling circulation incorporate tropical downpours. In the abbreviated term, rainfall volition beryllium the biggest menace wherever they dispersed implicit the coastal sections.

Onshore upwind successful Apalachee Bay southbound of Tallahassee could propulsion the h2o 1 to 3 feet supra the mean precocious tide level. As the tempest tracks west, ticker for elevated tides each on the bluish Gulf Coast.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO EXPECTED TO BECOME TROPICAL STORM BERTHA LATER MONDAY AS RAIN TARGETS THE SOUTHEAST

For the adjacent mates days, the strategy volition drift northwest to westbound offshore of the coastline. The anticipation is for a dilatory strengthening process nether somewhat little hostile precocious winds, truthful that by aboriginal contiguous oregon tomorrow, the slump volition fortify capable for the National Hurricane Center to upgrade it to Tropical Storm Bertha.

Forecast Track

(FOX Weather)

Remember the rule: Predictions for just-developing, poorly developed, and slow-moving systems are taxable to overmuch higher errors, and forecast details are apt to change. Every caveat applies to this system.

Yesterday, determination was immoderate interest that Bertha mightiness make rapidly and miss enactment with onshore arsenic it moved to the westbound aboriginal successful the week. That mightiness person resulted successful a stronger strategy reaching Texas. But today, the beardown statement of the machine forecasts is that the slump oregon a anemic Bertha volition tally into Louisiana and dice retired there.

The yellowish enactment represents the statement of the accepted models, and the reddish 1 is the Google DeepMind forecast. Notice that some of them suffer the circulation implicit Louisiana.

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In addition, upper-level winds are forecast to beryllium rather hostile astatine that point. Those winds would apt transportation the moisture from what's near of the slump oregon Bertha toward Texas.

Until oregon if a well-developed halfway really forms, the forecasts volition beryllium iffy. But the trends are bully for a low-end tropical tempest astatine most.

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Those upper-level winds are besides apt to propulsion the heaviest rainfall southbound of the seashore and implicit the Gulf. But heavy, tropical rainfall bands with gusty winds are inactive imaginable astatine the seashore and successful adjacent inland sections. Be acceptable for immoderate section alerts from the National Weather Service.

For now, there's thing to bash but enactment aware. We person to spot however the strategy develops today. Will the hostile situation of upper-level winds and adust aerial proceed to instrumentality its toll, oregon volition a pouch of conducive ambiance let the strategy to go amended developed? Forecasts for well-organized systems are astir ever much accurate.