Bryan Norcross: The Atlantic goes quiet to kick off July

Updated astatine 9:15 a.m. ET connected Wednesday, July 1, 2026.

The heavy tropics from the Caribbean crossed the Atlantic to Africa are astir arsenic hostile to tropical improvement arsenic you're ever going to spot during a hurricane season. There's a occurrence hose of upper-level winds from Central America astir to Africa. This connected its ain would usually prohibit tropical systems from developing.

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In addition, the Atlantic eastbound of the islands is unusually cool, excessively chill to powerfulness tropical systems. And the Saharan dust instrumentality is kicking in. Winds implicit the African continent are kicking up the dust, which is carried crossed the Atlantic to the Caribbean, and sometimes to Florida and the Gulf.

A dense plume has been implicit Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, which is present dispersing farther west.

This graphic shows that beardown and hostile winds are forecast to proceed crossed the tropical loop for astatine slightest the adjacent week.

(Bryan Norcross / FOX Weather / FOX Weather)

The nett effect is that nary tropical improvement is expected for the adjacent week, and the long-range machine forecast models amusement thing processing into the mediate of the month.

Is the loop of hostile upper-level winds an artifact of this year's much-ballyhooed processing El Niño? It’s a spot of an unfastened question — usually it takes longer for the atmosphere to respond to the warming excavation of h2o southbound of Hawaii successful the Pacific. In immoderate case, Mother Nature has a lid connected the tropical Atlantic.

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If thing is going to make anytime soon, it's going to beryllium northbound of the tropical belt. The bluish Gulf and the waters disconnected the Southeast seashore and eastbound of North Florida — the alleged subtropics — don't person arsenic galore antagonistic factors successful play. So for the foreseeable future, we'll proceed to ticker for disturbances successful those areas.

This graphic shows that tropical improvement is not expected for astatine slightest the adjacent 7 days.

(Bryan Norcross / FOX Weather / FOX Weather)

On average, the Saharan particulate lets up and the tropical oceans lukewarm successful August. There's nary crushed to deliberation that won't hap this twelvemonth arsenic well.

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But for now, Mother Nature is taking an extended July 4th holiday.