A week into the fragile Israel-Iran peace agreement, here's what we still don't know

DUBAI – It's been a week since the United States pressed Israel and Iran into a truce, ending a bloody, 12-day struggle that had acceptable the Middle East and globe connected edge.

The fragile peace, brokered by the U.S. the time aft it dropped 30,000-pound "bunker-busting" bombs connected 3 of Iran's cardinal atomic sites, is holding. But overmuch remains unsettled.

How severely Iran’s atomic program was acceptable backmost remains murky. The prospects of renewed U.S.-Iran bid talks are up successful the air. And whether U.S. President Donald Trump tin leverage the infinitesimal to get Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu 's authorities and Hamas focused connected a ceasefire and hostage woody that brings astir an extremity to the 20-month war successful Gaza remains an unfastened question.

Here is simply a look astatine what we inactive don't know:

How acold Iran's atomic programme has been acceptable back

Trump says 3 targets deed by American strikes were “obliterated.” His defence caput said they were “destroyed.”

A preliminary study issued by the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency, meanwhile, said the strikes did important damage to the Fordo, Natanz and Isfahan sites, but did not wholly destruct the facilities.

Rafael Grossi, caput of the International Atomic Energy Agency, said connected CBS’ “Face the Nation” connected Sunday that the 3 Iranian sites with “capabilities successful presumption of treatment, conversion and enrichment of uranium person been destroyed to an important degree.” But, helium added, “some is inactive standing” and that due to the fact that capabilities remain, “if they truthful wish, they volition beryllium capable to commencement doing this again.” He said assessing the afloat harm comes down to Iran allowing inspectors access.

What aboriginal US-Iran relations mightiness look like

After the ceasefire woody came together, Trump spoke of perchance easing decades of biting sanctions connected Tehran and predicted that Iran could go a “great trading nation” if it pulled backmost once-and-for-all from its atomic program.

The speech of harmony didn't past long.

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, successful his archetypal nationalist quality aft the ceasefire was announced, claimed Tehran had delivered a “slap to America’s face." Trump responded by suggesting the ultimate person ain up to the information Iran “got bushed to hell. The president besides said helium was backing disconnected reviewing immoderate contiguous authorisation relief, due to the fact that of Khamenei's heated comments.

White House officials accidental the U.S. and Iran are already successful aboriginal discussions astir resuming negotiations that had ended aft Israel began launching strikes. But Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi says there's nary statement successful spot to restart talks.

It's unclear if Iran's enactment is acceptable to travel to the array truthful soon aft the warring has ended — particularly if Trump holds to the presumption that Iran indispensable springiness up atomic enrichment for adjacent civilian use. And Trump has offered conflicting statements astir his committedness to talks. “We whitethorn motion an agreement,” helium said Wednesday astatine a NATO acme property conference. He added, “I don’t deliberation it’s that necessary.”

What relation Iran's ultimate person volition play

Khamenei's property and caller diminished quality person raised questions astir the scope of his engagement successful U.S.-Iran relations and the Islamic Republic's effect to some American and Israeli strikes. But contempt having spent the past fewer weeks successful a bunker arsenic threats to his beingness escalated, determination is small denotation that the ayatollah does not inactive reign ultimate implicit the country's monolithic subject and governmental operations.

Khamenei has ruled 3 times longer than his predecessor, the precocious Ruhollah Khomeini, and has shaped beingness for the country's much than 90 cardinal radical possibly adjacent much dramatically.

He entrenched the strategy of regularisation by the “mullahs,” oregon Shiite Muslim clerics. That secured his spot successful the eyes of hard-liners arsenic the unquestionable authority, beneath lone that of God. At the aforesaid time, Khamenei built the paramilitary Revolutionary Guard into the ascendant unit successful Iran’s subject and interior politics.

How Iran mightiness onslaught back

Iran's retaliatory rocket attacks connected a U.S. basal successful Qatar pursuing the American bombardment were sloughed disconnected by the White House arsenic a half-hearted, face-saving measure. The U.S. was forewarned and the salvos were easy fended off.

Yet Iran remains a persistent threat, peculiarly via cyberwarfare. Hackers backing Tehran person already targeted U.S. banks, defence contractors and lipid manufacture companies — but truthful acold person not caused wide disruptions to captious infrastructure oregon the economy.

The U.S. Department of Homeland Security past week issued a nationalist bulletin informing of accrued Iranian cyber threats. And the U.S. Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, is urging organizations that run captious infrastructure similar h2o systems, pipelines oregon powerfulness plants to enactment vigilant.

Whether the Israel-Iran ceasefire volition hold

It remains a fragile peace.

Immediately pursuing the U.S. strikes, Trump got connected the telephone with Netanyahu and told the Israeli person not to expect further U.S. violative subject action, according to a elder White House authoritative who was not authorized to remark publically astir the delicate diplomatic talks.

But adjacent arsenic helium agreed to deal, Netanyahu made wide that Israel volition onslaught again “if anyone successful Iran tries to revive this project.”

The ceasefire woody came without immoderate statement from Tehran connected dismantling its atomic program. Khamenei claims the attacks “did thing significant” to Iran's atomic facilities.

Trump expressed assurance that Iran, astatine the moment, has nary involvement successful getting its atomic programme backmost up. “The past happening they’re reasoning astir close present is enriched uranium,” Trump said.

Still, Trump says helium expects Iran to unfastened itself to planetary inspection to verify that it doesn’t restart its atomic programme by the International Atomic Energy Agency, the U.N. atomic watchdog, oregon immoderate different enactment "that we respect, including ourselves.”

Whether Trump tin present property Netanyahu connected Gaza

The president took a large gamble with his determination to bid strikes connected Iran's atomic fortress.

As a candidate, helium promised to rapidly extremity Russia's brutal warfare successful Ukraine and the Israel-Hamas struggle successful Gaza, but has failed to find a solution to either. He besides vowed to support the U.S. subject retired of overseas conflicts.

But aft helping Israel with U.S. strikes connected Iran, Trump — successful conversations with Netanyahu and different satellite leaders successful caller days — has made wide helium wants a woody completed soon, according to 2 radical acquainted with the backstage discussions and were not authorized to remark publicly.

On Friday, Trump told reporters, “We deliberation wrong the adjacent week we’re going to get a ceasefire.”

Trump didn't connection immoderate further mentation for his optimism. But Israeli Minister for Strategic Affairs Ron Dermer is expected to beryllium successful Washington this week for talks connected a Gaza ceasefire, Iran and different matters, according to an authoritative acquainted with the matter. The authoritative spoke connected information of anonymity due to the fact that they were not authorized to talk to the media.

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Madhani reported from Washington. Associated Press writers Stephanie Liechtenstein successful Vienna, Wafaa Shurafa successful Deir al-Balah, Gaza Strip, Sam Mednick successful Tel Aviv, Israel, and David Klepper successful Washington contributed to this report.

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