A Pre-SOTU Guide to Trump’s Economic Claims

In caller weeks, President Donald Trump has made a bid of claims astir the economy, a taxable that should diagnostic prominently successful his State of the Union code to Congress connected Feb. 24.

“We person the hottest state anyplace successful the world,” Trump said astatine a White House property briefing connected Jan. 20, adding aboriginal that “America is booming.” He made akin comments the pursuing day, asserting that “we were a dormant country” a twelvemonth ago.

But his economical boasts see mendacious oregon misleading claims, and helium sometimes pushes an incorrect communicative of an abrupt alteration successful immoderate economical indicators since helium came backmost to the White House.

As mentation for what we mightiness perceive successful Tuesday night’s speech, we connection a usher to a twelve of Trump’s caller claims astir the economy, astir of which we’ve written astir before. They interaction connected inflation, economic growth, manufacturing, wages, jobs, the deficit, stock market and more.

Economic Growth

Proud of national information showing that economical maturation successful the 2nd and 3rd quarters of 2025 exceeded expectations, Trump in Iowa on Jan. 27 falsely claimed that “under my leadership, economical maturation is exploding to numbers unheard of. They’ve ne'er had them before.”

After declining by an annualized complaint of 0.6% successful the archetypal 4th of 2025, which covers the 3 months from January to March, existent gross home merchandise (meaning it has been adjusted for inflation) grew astatine a complaint of 3.8% successful the 2nd 4th of 2025 and astatine a complaint of 4.4% successful the 3rd quarter, according to estimates from the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

But those were not record-setting numbers. They were the largest quarterly increases since the system expanded astatine a complaint of 4.7% successful the 3rd 4th of 2023, nether President Joe Biden.

As we wrote this month, the quarterly maturation grounds is 34.9% successful the 3rd 4th of 2020, which was astatine the opening of the economical betterment during the COVID-19 pandemic. Prior to the pandemic, according to BEA estimates backmost to 1947, the grounds was 16.7% maturation successful the archetypal 4th of 1950. Yearly maturation successful GDP has averaged astir 2.75% implicit the past 50 years.

Jobs

Trump told NBC News successful a Feb. 4 interview: “We have, it was conscionable announced, much jobs close present occupied successful the United States of America than astatine immoderate clip during its existence, 250 years. There are much radical moving contiguous than astatine immoderate clip successful the past of our country. Pretty bully stat.”

While accurate, the statistic loses immoderate luster erstwhile factoring successful dependable U.S. colonisation growth. In fact, occupation maturation slowed and the employment-to-population ratio declined a spot successful the archetypal twelvemonth of Trump’s 2nd term.

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, determination were 158,627,000 radical employed successful the U.S. successful January, and that’s the highest fig connected record. But by and large, arsenic the population of the U.S. has grown implicit the years, truthful excessively has the fig of radical employed successful the U.S., with notable exceptions during recessions. This graph from BLS gives the semipermanent picture:

Since employment recovered from the COVID-19 pandemic successful mid-2022, jobs person reached caller highs astir each azygous month. Trump’s assertion besides overlooks that occupation maturation was little betwixt January 2025 and January 2026 nether Trump — a summation of 359,000 jobs oregon 0.2% — than it was for Biden’s last twelvemonth — a summation of 1.2 cardinal jobs oregon 0.8.%.

There are other, much applicable statistics, connected employment maturation that origin successful colonisation growth. BLS’ employment-population ratio, which is the percent of the colonisation that is working, declined from 60.1% successful January 2025 to 59.8% successful January 2026. Another measurement is the labor unit information rate, which is the percent of the full colonisation implicit property 16 that is either employed oregon actively seeking work. That complaint has stayed comparatively the same, going from 62.6% successful January 2025 to 62.5% successful January 2026. The so-called “prime age” labour unit information rate, focusing conscionable connected those ages 25 to 54, roseate from 83.5% successful January 2025 to 84.1% successful January 2026.

Trump has often cited this hollow statistic astir much radical being employed than ever earlier during some his first and second terms, including during his State of the Union address successful 2019.

Inflation

In the NBC News interview, Trump repeated his false claim that helium “inherited the worst ostentation successful the past of our country,” and added that “now we person astir nary inflation.”

When Trump took bureau successful January 2025, the annualized complaint of ostentation was 3%, based on the Consumer Price Index. That was acold from the 9.1% complaint successful June 2022, nether Biden, which was the highest 12-month summation since November 1981, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The worst inflation in U.S. past was not agelong aft World War I, erstwhile the Consumer Price Index was up 23.7% for the 12 months ending successful June 1920. 

Trump has repeatedly mocked Democrats for raising the contented of “affordability,” which Trump says helium has since solved.

“Prices are mode down. You don’t perceive the Democrats talking astir affordability anymore, which they caused the affordability problem, precise badly,” Trump said on Feb. 6. “But you don’t perceive that word. I haven’t heard that connection spoken successful a week and a fractional due to the fact that they can’t talk due to the fact that the prices are down.”

But wide prices are not down. As of January, 1 twelvemonth into Trump’s 2nd term, the yearly ostentation complaint was down to 2.4%. However, that’s supra the 2% target set by the Federal Reserve. So, prices are inactive increasing, but astatine a slower gait than erstwhile Trump took office.

Stagflation

In the Jan. 20 property briefing at the White House, Trump falsely claimed to person “ended Biden stagflation,” which helium said is “far worse than inflation.” The U.S. was “plagued by the nightmare of stagflation” nether Biden, and present “we are witnessing the nonstop opposite,” Trump said at a World Economic Forum gathering connected Jan. 21.

But, as we’ve written, economists told america that the U.S. system nether Biden did not acquisition stagflation, which Kyle Handley, a prof of economics astatine the University of California, San Diego, told america “refers to a sustained play of precocious ostentation combined with anemic oregon stagnant existent economical growth, typically alongside rising unemployment.” He said that explanation did not use to the Biden economy.

Inflation was precocious during Biden’s archetypal 2 years successful office, past declined sharply successful the past fractional of his presidency. “However, existent GDP maturation during the Biden presidency was affirmative and often supra trend, and unemployment remained historically low,” Handley said. 

In addition, Aeimit Lakdawala, an subordinate prof of economics astatine Wake Forest University, told america that determination has not been a implicit economical turnaround nether Trump.

“What we’re truly seeing is simply a continuation of trends that were already good underway earlier Trump took bureau successful January 2025,” Lakdawala said. He noted that the yearly ostentation complaint is “modestly lower” nether Trump, portion the mean annualized summation successful existent GDP nether Trump is “a interaction lower” than successful Biden’s past 2 years. The unemployment rate, astatine 4.3% arsenic of January, is besides somewhat higher than it was erstwhile Trump took office.

Stock Market

Trump has repeatedly boasted that the banal marketplace has outperformed expectations. “Your 401(k)s are doing precise well,” Trump said in a code to subject families successful North Carolina connected Feb. 13.

A Feb. 16 press release from the White House enactment immoderate further rotation connected the claim, saying the banal marketplace has “rebounded powerfully nether President Trump’s leadership.” The merchandise notes that the S&P 500 “surg[ed] astir 40% from its early-year low.” That’s true. But the debased successful 2025 came conscionable a fewer days aft Trump’s alleged “Liberation Day” tariff announcement connected April 2 that sent banal prices tumbling. Since then, stocks person rebounded and achieved caller highs.

Since Trump took office, the S&P 500 has risen 14.5% (that’s for the play betwixt the adjacent of the marketplace connected Jan. 17, 2025, the past concern time earlier the inauguration, and the adjacent of the marketplace connected Feb. 18, 2026). Although Trump has said stocks acold outperformed Wall Street expectations, that’s lone a small amended than galore fiscal analysts forecast for 2025 conscionable earlier Trump took office.

As Yahoo! Finance wrote on Jan. 2, 2025, “The median year-end people for the S&P 500 among strategists tracked by Yahoo Finance sits astatine 6,600. This would correspond astir a 12% summation from the index’s existent level.”

“And if you retrieve erstwhile I was archetypal elected, everybody said, if I got it to 50,000, the Dow, oregon 7,000 with the S&P, if I got it to 50,000 with a Dow, that would beryllium an astonishing — that would beryllium successful 4 years from then, from the election,” Trump told reporters on Feb. 13.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average, made up of 30 ample corporations, reached 50,000 successful aboriginal February, but has since dropped a bit, and was astatine 49,576 astatine the unfastened of the marketplace connected Feb. 19.

But it’s misleading to suggest the banal marketplace “rebounded strongly” nether Trump. The banal marketplace performed good successful Biden’s last 2 years successful bureau — with the S&P 500 rising implicit 20% each of those years — amended than the 13% summation Trump saw successful his archetypal year. As we wrote successful our story, “Biden’s Final Numbers,” the S&P 500 grew by astir 58% implicit the entirety of Biden’s 4 years. The banal marketplace has been connected a bully semipermanent run, with the S&P rising astir 68% during Trump’s first 4 years in bureau and by 166% during the eight years under President Barack Obama earlier that.

We besides enactment that portion Trump often boasts that everyone’s 401(k) status relationship has risen, lone about 62% of Americans ain immoderate stock, according to a Gallup canvass successful 2025. Ownership of banal skews heavy to the affluent — 87% among those successful households earning astatine slightest $100,000. It was 28% among those successful households earning little than $50,000.

Gasoline Prices

In a Feb. 6 gaggle with reporters, successful which helium claimed that “[w]e’ve had monolithic terms reductions,” Trump misleadingly said that “[i]f you look astatine gasoline, $1.99 a gallon.” That was acold from the nationalist mean price.

Gasoline prices are astir 19 cents (or 6%) little than they were erstwhile Trump took office, but, arsenic of the week ending Feb. 9, the mean terms successful the U.S. for a gallon of regular gasoline was $2.90, astir $1 much than Trump said, according to the Energy Information Administration. One week later, the mean terms was $2.92, arsenic of the week ending Feb. 16.

There besides were nary states successful which the mean terms was beneath $2 astatine the clip of Trump’s claim. Oklahoma had the lowest mean terms astatine $2.36 per gallon connected Feb. 6, according to AAA data. That state, astatine $2.29, besides had the lowest mean price on Feb. 18.

Patrick De Haan, caput of petroleum investigation astatine GasBuddy, told america successful an email that, arsenic of Feb. 14, determination were “about 40 stations successful the federation with gasoline beneath $2/gal, which is what we’ve mostly seen connected a regular ground for February frankincense far.” In a Feb. 16 post on Substack, helium wrote that, arsenic of that date, $2.79 was the “most communal U.S. state terms encountered by motorists.”

Energy and Grocery Prices

In a Jan. 27 property gaggle, Trump besides claimed to person “made a batch of progress” connected the “very, precise precocious prices” that helium inherited. “So, we person the groceries going down. We person the vigor going down,” helium said. That’s misleading.

While the mean terms of some grocery items, specified arsenic eggs and bread, has decreased since the commencement of Trump’s 2nd term, mean nutrient prices wide are up — not down. As of January, the Consumer Price Index for at-home nutrient products purchased astatine a market store oregon supermarket had accrued astir 2.2%, twelvemonth implicit year, according to the astir caller BLS data. 

As for vigor prices, it’s not wide what Trump is referring to. The CPI for energy overall was down 0.3% for the 12 months ending successful January, portion the scale for household energy specifically roseate 6.6% successful that period, according to BLS data. Also, the mean terms of electricity per kilowatt hour has risen astir 7.3% successful the past year.

Budget Deficit

In his Jan. 30 sentiment piece for the Wall Street Journal, Trump exaggerated erstwhile helium wrote that “with the assistance of tariffs, we person chopped that national fund shortage by a staggering 27% successful a azygous year.”

Budget deficits hap erstwhile national spending exceeds revenue. The White House has said that Trump’s fig was calculated by comparing the cumulative fund shortage from February to November successful 2025 with the combined shortage for the aforesaid 10 months successful 2024. 

But organizations that track the budget deficit typically comparison deficits based connected months successful fiscal years, not calendar years. The $1.78 trillion fund shortage for fiscal twelvemonth 2025, which began connected Oct. 1, 2024, and ended connected Sept. 30, decreased astir 2.3% from the $1.82 trillion fund spread successful fiscal twelvemonth 2024. (Trump unsocial was president for a afloat 8 retired of the 12 months successful FY 2025.) 

As of January, the budget deficit was down astir 17% done the archetypal 4 months of FY 2026 erstwhile compared with the aforesaid play successful FY 2025. An summation successful national revenue, including from tariffs, contributed to the decline. On Feb. 9, the Congressional Budget Office said, “Customs duties, including tariff revenues, collected this twelvemonth were much than 4 times the magnitude recorded successful the archetypal 4 months of past year, an summation of $90 billion.” 

However, successful its astir caller semipermanent fund outlook, the CBO projected that the last FY 2026 fund shortage volition extremity up being adjacent to $1.9 trillion, higher than the shortage successful FY 2025. That would beryllium astir $140 cardinal higher than the shortage that CBO projected for FY 2026 successful January 2025, earlier immoderate of Trump’s policies had been implemented.

Trade Deficit

Trump’s assertion that helium has “slashed our gaping commercialized shortage by a staggering 77%,” arsenic helium said Jan. 27 successful Iowa, is misleading. In 2025, the U.S. commercialized shortage successful goods and services decreased by 0.2%, oregon astir $2.1 billion, from 2024, according to information the Bureau of Economic Analysis released Feb. 19. The 2025 goods-and-services commercialized shortage of astir $901.5 cardinal was the 3rd largest going backmost to 1960.

Instead, arsenic we wrote connected Feb. 3, Trump’s assertion appears to comparison the monthly commercialized shortage successful January 2025 to the shortage 9 months aboriginal successful October, a 16-year low. That’s a alteration of 77.6%, according to BEA figures revised this month. (The alteration from January to December was 45.2%.) But economical experts told america that comparing the commercialized shortage successful 1 period to different is not preferable due to the fact that monthly commercialized figures tin beryllium volatile.

For instance, successful the archetypal 3 months of 2025, the commercialized imbalance surged to betwixt astir $120 cardinal and $136 billion, arsenic U.S. importers loaded up connected overseas goods to get up of tariffs connected imported products that Trump had proposed. Imports went backmost down aft the tariffs went into effect, producing smaller commercialized deficits successful the months aboriginal successful the year. 

“Large month-to-month swings are common, adjacent successful periods with nary underlying structural alteration successful commercialized argumentation oregon economical conditions,” Handley, astatine the University of California, San Diego, said successful an email for our story. “For that reason, economists astir ne'er measure claims astir the ‘trade deficit’ based connected comparisons betwixt 2 idiosyncratic months.”

Manufacturing Construction

Trump has repeatedly claimed that “factory operation is up by 41%” nether his 2nd term. That’s misleading. The Census Bureau’s manufacturing operation spending data, which the White House referred america to, shows that spending has declined since Trump took office.

The quarterly data amusement a 6.7% decline, portion the driblet was 7.3% connected a monthly basis, from January 2025 to October, the latest information available.

As we’ve explained, the White House gets a 41% summation by comparing the monthly mean from January to August 2025 with the yearly mean for 2021 to 2024. But that methodology fails to instrumentality into relationship the 212% increase in mill operation spending implicit Biden’s 4 years, partially fueled by the 2022 CHIPS Act, which helped money semiconductor manufacturing facilities and continues to impact operation spending. Anirban Basu, main economist for the Associated Builders and Contractors, an manufacture commercialized association, told america that the manufacturing operation spending successful 2025 is “largely due” to the CHIPS Act.

It’s worthy noting that the system mislaid 83,000 manufacturing jobs in Trump’s archetypal 12 months. In the twelvemonth earlier helium took office, the diminution was 202,000 jobs, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Real Wages

Trump has repeatedly mentioned the diminution successful existent wages, meaning they are adjusted for inflation, implicit the 4 years of Biden’s presidency and the summation successful existent wages truthful acold nether his 2nd term. It’s existent that existent mean weekly earnings fell 4%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, during Biden’s term, and they’ve gone up 1.9% successful the twelvemonth since January 2025. But Trump astatine times has near the misleading content that this has been an abrupt turnaround. Over Biden’s past year, existent wages went up 0.7%

On Jan. 13, Trump said: “After existent wages plummeted by $3,000 nether sleepy Joe Biden, existent wages are up by $1,300 successful little than 1 twelvemonth nether President Trump.” Later that month, helium said that “wages person gone up … overmuch faster” than inflation. With Biden, helium said, “it was conscionable the opposite. Wages successful the United States successful the past twelvemonth person gone up.”

Wages roseate faster than ostentation implicit the past year-and-a-half of Biden’s presidency. They’ve outpaced ostentation since June 2023, and they’ve continued to bash truthful since Trump took office.

“It remains the lawsuit that some astatine the process extremity of the Biden medication and the opening of this Trump administration, existent wages person been rising. That is to say, ostentation has been rising much dilatory than wages person been,” Gary Burtless, a elder chap emeritus successful economical studies astatine the Brookings Institution, told america successful a telephone interrogation erstwhile we wrote astir this taxable successful December.

As for the circumstantial dollar amounts Trump has mentioned — a $3,000 diminution successful existent wages nether Biden and a $1,300 summation nether his word — the White House told america that’s based connected weekly wage information from BLS that’s adjusted for ostentation utilizing the CPI-W, which is the user terms scale for municipality wage earners and clerical workers. It measures the alteration successful prices for a handbasket of goods purchased by specified workers, and it’s the scale Social Security uses to cipher cost-of-living adjustments. Using that method, we got a diminution of astir $2,900 implicit Biden’s 4 years and an summation of astir $1,400 for Trump’s archetypal twelvemonth ($1,363 to beryllium exact), a fig that includes January information released this month.

Josh Bivens, main economist astatine the Economic Policy Institute, a liberal-leaning deliberation tank, cautioned against looking astatine wage maturation lone implicit statesmanlike terms, calling it “deeply misleading” due to the fact that “macroeconomic cycles occasionally person immense effects that person thing to bash with statesmanlike performance.”

Bivens noted that mean wages jumped up during the COVID-19 pandemic erstwhile the unemployment complaint besides spiked arsenic chiefly low-wage workers mislaid their jobs. As those low-wage workers regained employment, “it had the effect of artificially lowering measured wages successful the aggregate.” (Burtless besides said the pandemic had this interaction connected wage data.)

“The acquisition is that the due mode to measurement macroeconomic variables similar mean wages is from concern rhythm highest to concern rhythm peak, not from the trough to a peak. That’s why, for example, we measurement from 2019-2024 oregon 2025,” Bivens said.

But presidents of some parties are apt to instrumentality recognition oregon formed blasted for increases oregon declines successful existent wage growth.

Investments

The president continues to marque the exaggerated boast that “we secured commitments for a grounds breaking positive $18 trillion” successful “new investments,” arsenic helium said successful Iowa successful precocious January. In his pre-Super Bowl NBC News interview, Trump besides made the claim, saying “$18 trillion is being invested successful our state arsenic we speak.” At times, helium has attributed this to his policies connected tariffs.

A White House website tallying specified promises puts the total astatine $9.6 trillion for “U.S. and Foreign Investments,” providing precise fewer details connected these agreements. But arsenic we’ve written before, adjacent that fig is shaky due to the fact that it includes pledges and planned investments that whitethorn not happen.

“[T]hey’re just promises — and often vague ones astatine that,” Scott Lincicome, vice president of wide economics astatine the libertarian Cato Institute, said successful an April 2025 analysis when Trump began making specified claims.

In looking astatine the White House database successful May, we recovered that immoderate investments whitethorn not beryllium owed to Trump. A $500 cardinal artificial quality infrastructure project, for example, was reportedly successful the readying stages successful March 2024, good earlier the election. And some a labour national and a Democratic politician took recognition for the announced reopening of an car assembly works that besides was connected the Trump administration’s list.

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The station A Pre-SOTU Guide to Trump’s Economic Claims appeared archetypal connected FactCheck.org.